Bill Gurley Profile picture
Sep 16, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Some encouragement to comment on $SNOW IPO. While it would be easy to do normal post wrt mispricing, it is important to understand what is different here from other IPOs. The most important data is broad (40 years of underpricing, 2020 worst year yet), vs. 1 company. [cont]
First, its important to acknowledge that @SnowflakeDB is an amazing outlier, & proof of the innovation that develops from this great place we call Silicon Valley. Hats off to the employees, Frank Slootman, @laserlikemike, @altcap, @carl_eschenbach, & all those involved. [cont]
Outside of if the company/shareholders "gave up" anything, the hand allocated investors received $4.3B is one day wealth transfer. That's an insane amount of REAL money. That, along with watching the theatre and drama today, it is HARD to say - this is exactly how it should work!
In many ways, $SNOW is the final proof of just how broken process is. Frank Slootman is a HIGHLY experienced IPO CEO. He knows the game, & pushed hard to make sure he wasn't short-changing the company. But it didn't matter, because the process is set up to deliver this silliness.
Two other thoughts. One of the main arguments for hand-allocation is "you want to choose long term shareholders." $SNOW sold 32.2mm shares last night. Today, 35.7mm shares traded; how does that work? And no one checks to see who held, who sold, etc. Never measured/disclosed.
One company I worked with went to do a secondary 4 months after IPO, and only 10% of the IPO shares were still held. It's ludicrous to think you can "control" who owns your stock. IPO allocators aren't locked up, and once your public, your investors choose you. And that's OK.
The last point is about fairness. One well-known individual said to me "I tried so hard, for weeks, to get into the SNOW IPO. They said it was the hottest IPO since FB...I could not get allocation." This $4.3B of 1-day free money is reserved for those "closest" to banks.
In world where we are all decrying inequity/unfairness, is this really how we want our capital markets to work? Is this not the epitome of the rich getting richer as a direct result of being rich? The attached email shows exactly who receives said rewards.

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More from @bgurley

Aug 7, 2023
You can frequently read articles referencing VC "dry powder" and inferring that these large dollar amounts are "burning a hole" in someone's pocket & will imminently find their way to the market. I totally understand the assumption, but things don't really work this way. [cont]
First and foremost, undrawn VC dollars are not on the IRR clock. There is no urgency to draw them down. The money isn't actually at the VC firm, they are still sitting in the coffers at the LPs. No VC firm I have ever been exposed to feels "pressure" to "get dollars to work."
On the back of a market reset, & w/ portfolio valuations being slashed, GPs are mostly sharing bad news w/ LPs. No GP wants to look aggressive/carefree. Imagine being a teenager with two speeding tickets & a fender-bender insisting on taking the new family car out Saturday night.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 14, 2023
Some (below) are arguing US capitalism would be better off if SVB had completely failed (also wiping out depositors). History suggests that out gov't treated big banks (2008) & big airlines (2020) FAR BETTER than SVB - in both cases fully protecting EQUITY shareholders. (cont)
In 2008, during the GFC, our gov't bailed out most of the major money center banks. Equity shareholders & bondholders kept whole. GS received help AFTER they received a preferred investment from Warren Buffet. Here is the real kicker (cont). investopedia.com/insights/too-b…
The GFC was the result of a specific flawed financial product that was an "offering" of these same banks. So far, the identified SVB failure was a bad risk management process. In the GFC case, the "bailed-out" players directly benefited from the flawed product.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 17, 2023
As people come to terms with the weight of our new environment, they are slowly beginning to realize how radically things have changed. One area in particular that has changed - the required level of "corporate performance" needed to simply survive (let alone thrive). 🧵
2/ Building startups WAS a historically difficult endeavor (see chart). The past 5 years things have been "much, much easier." Cash was easy to come by (round frequency unprecedented), & no one was held to any profit goals, yet many companies still received high valuations.
3/ Cash is now hard to come by; investors are expecting solid unit economics & earlier profitability. Everything is immediately 5-10X harder. As such, survival is now depedent on hard-core, disciplined, top decile business execution, which no one learned in the past 5 years.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
Many people are sharing great @Coach_Leach videos of his funny quips, but there are three things about him that in my mind stand above his unquestionably great humor. First he touched many lives 1-1. He took the time. Great stories like this abound:
Second, his coaching tree is immense. Many that learn an art/skill hide their secrets deep. But none of us learn if there are no teachers. Mike's willingness to give back to the sport he loved is nearly unprecedented. A great sign of a life well lived. hailstate.com/news/2022/10/1…
Lastly, Michael Lewis once called Mike Leach "a national treasure." It's hard to imagine that a college football coach could bring so much intrigue & happiness to so many people. I watched every game I could. So sad he is gone. So happy to see the universal love. 🏴‍☠️
Read 4 tweets
Dec 4, 2022
Enjoyed e106 of @theallinpod. On FTX, I think they nailed a few important things:
1) Contradiction between smartest man in the room (pre) & "aw-shucks I don't know much" (post)
2) Sophistication of the corporate org (in size, scope, etc) also inconsistent with "aw-shucks" (cont)
3) Agree that SBF has built confidence in talking his way out of things. That said, doing voluntary depositions is a really bad idea.
4) One thing I don't think enough people mention - he intentionally created/discouraged proper governance. He insisted on no board, etc. (cont)
Interesting idea that he achieved things AS A RESULT of having a privileged upbringing. Probably impossible to prove, but certainly the credentials of his schools and his family relationships were helpful along the way. open.spotify.com/episode/75monu…
Read 4 tweets
Jun 15, 2022
Having survived two previous market resets (2001, 2009), people frequently ask me how this 2022 market reset is different and how it is the same. The obvious similarity is that valuation multiples have collapsed. We went from a "glass very full" mindset to one with many concerns.
Alternatively, the window of ultra-low interest rates that fueled the rise (now rising) was unprecedented in business history. This led to ample speculation. It also created valuations we are quite unlikely to revisit. People will have a hard time letting go of those prices.
Similar to 2009, the founders & executives that run VC backed companies have been quick to recognize and adjust. They understand that the cost of capital just went way up & that high cash burn rates are now impossible. The "game on the field" has changed & they are adjusting.
Read 12 tweets

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