Ryan Fedasiuk Profile picture
Sep 17, 2020 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
In my first article for @ChinaBriefJT, I mapped the budget of China's united front, the collection of organizations the CCP leverages to silence political opponents, persecute religious minorities, and acquire foreign tech.

Here is what I found (1/9): jamestown.org/program/puttin…
(2/9) For years, Chinese diplomats have insisted that the united front is nothing more than a benign administrative bureaucracy and accused Western analysts of overhyping its role.

But the CCP's own public budget documents belie its claims about the UF's importance and function.
(3/9) For @ChinaBriefJT, I analyzed 160 budget reports from organizations involved in China's central and provincial united front systems.

The central 🇨🇳 government's UF spending exceeds $1.4 billion USD each year—and probably even surpasses the budget of @MFA_China.
(4/9) Next to CPPCCs, Ethnic and Religious Affairs Commissions (ERACs) in each province receive the most funding of any UF organization. They are official gov offices dual hatted with CCP staff, tasked with persecuting religious minorities, especially in the Western provinces.
(5/9) Let's not pretend like this isn't the point of the united front. This public, **1,800-page** CPPCC Work Manual lays out the UF's goals quite clearly. Plenty of other internal docs cited in my @ChinaBriefJT paper highlight the UF's goals and MO.
web.archive.org/web/2020062216…
(6/9) UF budget documents state explicitly that Hong Kongers, Taiwanese, and and overseas Chinese are the UF's primary targets outside China, and are subject to its monitoring and influence.

Before it was absorbed, the central OCAO had a budget of $376 million USD just for this.
(7/9) In light of the facts, I'd ask this question:

If there's really nothing nefarious going on with the united front, why do some provinces feel compelled to classify information about their UFs as secret? And why does an "admin org" occupy so much of the 🇨🇳 gov's resources?
(8/9) For full transparency, I am releasing the 160 united front budget documents I analyzed in the course of this report, for the central CCP and all 31 provinces of China.

I encourage other analysts to comb through them with keener eyes than mine.

dropbox.com/sh/irn65e8ed3d…
(9/9) As always, my DMs are open for anyone looking to learn more about this project.

Special thanks to many people at @CSETGeorgetown who reviewed the draft, and @alexjoske for his foundational research and input on methodology.

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More from @RyanFedasiuk

Jan 24, 2023
It's been about 6 months since I started a job in government.

The learning curve can be steep at first — especially if you're unfamiliar with the parlance of bureaucrats.

For the uninitiated, here's a 🧵 with some commonly used phrases and what they mean in plain English:
"Tasker" — a thing you must do.
"Due-out" — a tasker from a previous meeting or engagement.
Read 17 tweets
Jun 29, 2022
The Chinese military is buying high-end computer chips designed by 🇺🇸 companies to power its next-generation weapon systems.

Here's what @kelmgren, Ellen Lu, and I found in our latest investigation for @CSETGeorgetown — and how to stop it.

🧵 1/17

cset.georgetown.edu/publication/si…
2/ My last study on AI in 🇨🇳 analyzed 66,000 purchase records published by the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

In November, we began to scour them for any mention of “AI chips” — high-end GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs that are useful for training AI systems.

cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ha…
3/ We could find only a handful of records — 24 contracts for 94 specific chips. We assume the PLA is buying a lot more through classified channels.

But of the contracts we could see, nearly all of them were for chips designed by @nvidia, @XilinxInc, @pmcmicrosemi, and @intel.
Read 18 tweets
Jun 16, 2022
The U.S. approach to economic statecraft is not cut out for strategic competition with China and Russia.

We are watching our adversaries source equipment, data, and capital from 🇺🇸 and its allies, and I am tired of admiring the problem.

🧵 1/10

washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/…
2/ @HASCRepublicans, @HASCDemocrats, @SASCGOP, and @SASCDems should use this NDAA cycle to build the Department of Commerce into a juggernaut, expand open-source intelligence collection and analysis, and/or instantiate new, flexible export control authorities within DoD.
3/ In October, we @CSETGeorgetown identified 273 companies selling AI systems and related components to the Chinese military.

At the time, only 22 — 8% — were listed in @CommerceGov's Entity List or Military End User List.

cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ha…
Read 10 tweets
Jun 15, 2022
Succeeding in tech competition with China requires understanding the sources of power within its innovation system.

That's why @emily_sw1, @channingclee, @AnnaPuglisi838, and I dove into its expansive network of State Key Laboratories.

🧵 1/10:

cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ch…
2/ Our latest report and data visualization map nearly 500 of China’s “SKLs” across varying fields and physical locations.

It's absolutely packed with findings. But I want to highlight three of our most important conclusions about the state of science and technology in China:
3/ ➡️ First, China is striving to emulate the U.S. laboratory system, but it’s not there yet.

At the top of China's lab system sit 20 National Labs—its answer to e.g. Los Alamos or PNNL.

Since 1984, 🇨🇳's gov has approved the creation of 10 new ones—but only 2 have been built.
Read 11 tweets
May 26, 2022
Blinken outlines 3 lines of effort for U.S. China policy:
1. Invest to double-down on longstanding American strengths.
2. Align efforts with allies and partners.
3. Compete to defend our interests and build our vision for the future.
Extremely pleased to see Blinken call out the crucial role that Chinese students play in advancing U.S. innovation, including the tendency of so many to stay and contribute to our economy and society.
.@SecBlinken also calls on USG to address its deprecated investments in R&D.

He laments the decline in U.S. R&D spending as a % of GDP.

Specifically calls for investment in AI, biotechnology, and quantum information sciences—the 3 lodestars of U.S. leadership in advanced tech.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 14, 2022
I think it's time we acknowledged the new U.S. tactic to indirectly extend deterrence to Taiwan:

Sending a continuous stream of important political figures to publicly, physically visit the place.

🧵 1/7

asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Inter…
2/ Of course deterrence isn't the sole, or even primary, objective of this Congressional visit.

Bilateral exchanges like this have tremendous value for the U.S.-Taiwan relationship, and the international community benefits from 🇹🇼's participation in it.
3/ But the number of visits in recent months, on such tight timeframes, at such high frequency, and from such diverse backgrounds, suggests there is a more basic motive at play:

Just constantly putting recognizably American bodies in Taipei.

reuters.com/world/china/ch…
Read 8 tweets

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