Andy Olson Profile picture
17 Sep, 30 tweets, 7 min read
This is a great thread looking at past numbers from the last 3 Presidential elections in Minnesota. I agree with the conclusion, but want to add some of my own commentary.
Minnesota, I believe, is absolutely going to flip this year. A lot of Twin Cities Republicans are so gun-shy on saying something like that because they’ve gotten their hopes up many times just to see MN stay blue.
For a really good take on why this year is different, here’s a video from a couple nights ago with @Peoples_Pundit and @Barnes_Law discussing several Battleground states, and queued up to Minnesota.
The gist of it is that Trump has pulled a lot of support from Northern Minnesota. In the East, the Iron Range, they’ve broken very heavily for Trump. Enough that Duluth won’t keep St. Louis County Blue this year. Even Duluth is closer than past races.
On the West side of Northern Minnesota, they explain the historic proclivities of the heavy Norwegian population, and how that is tipping things not only for Trump, but for Fishbach, who is running for Congress against Peterson (who’s been there since 1990.)
Another hotspot for Trump is Olmstead County (Rochester.) Historically, the Mayo Clinic folks and the city of Rochester have gone heavily enough Dem that Olmstead County goes Dem. This year, the rest of the county is much stronger GOP & Rochester is tipping a little more GOP.
It’s enough that Biden will probably not win Olmstead County. And given those three outstate areas where he’s trailing, he HAS to make up the difference in the Twin Cities, but he’s not.
Biden’s support in Minneapolis and St. Paul is floundering, and the Suburbs don’t like him either. Minnesota took a big hit from the riots in May, and people are FED UP. They may not all be flocking to Trump, but they’re not eager to vote for Biden, and he needs them to.
Overall, Biden is really hemorrhaging in Minnesota. At this point, it would take a miracle for him to keep MN blue. It’s just not going to happen.
.@Peoples_Pundit is a good pollster, and he does a great job of explaining the numbers and his methodology. It’s not just about calling 1000 people and extrapolating to see how a state will go.
He not only has Trump winning Minnesota, he thinks Trump will have an easier time winning Minnesota than holding Wisconsin (though I believe he’ll win both.)
Another good pollster to watch (HT: @GOPrincess ) is @FloridaDude297, whom I know much less about methodology, but doesn’t fall into the typical traps that the mainstream pollsters do.
Florida Dude says he puts more weight on a representative distribution of Urban, Suburban, and Rural voters. Party affiliation is meaningless in polling (and Baris will say the data will tell you party, the people don’t have to.)
Florida Dude has Trump up by 5 points in Minnesota!
Finally, I’ll just address voter fraud. Minnesota has had a couple elections get flipped in recent history because of (most of us on the Right believe) voter fraud.
In 2008, Norm Coleman lost his re-election to the Senate by just 312 votes, despite being up by 215 on election night. That was a swing of 527 votes.
Two years later, Mark Dayton won the governor’s race against (now CD6 Congressman) Tom Emmer by 8770 votes. A lot of us believe fraud played a key role in this one too.
I forgot to mention, there were enough felons caught illegally voting in the 2008 race that if they all voted for Franken, they decided the results.…
But what I’m getting at regarding fraud is that it was very close races that were tipped by fraud in Minnesota. I agree with Baris that it’s not going to put Biden over the top this year.
As Baris rightly points out, effective voter fraud requires an entrenched, corrupt party machine and enough precincts (or wards) in their pocket to get away with it. Minnesota has some of that, but not enough.
They’ve got corrupt. They’ve got a party on it’s way to being entrenched, but not there yet. They don’t have many precincts though.
The problem is that in order for fraud to work, you need a lot of registered voters who don’t vote. Minnesota has the highest voter turnout in the country, so it’s much harder to make it work.
Votes have to correspond to voters. A party machine can’t just dump 50,000 fraudulent ballots in a precinct with a few thousand people. They get away with fraud when they can take the difference between cast votes and registered voters and fill in some of the discrepancy.
The few precincts they have in Minneapolis is enough to tip an election that is a few hundred votes apart. A few thousand is really tough. If Trump can get to 10-15k lead in MN (it will be more than that, I am certain,) it will be impossible to steal.
This is also why I’m not too worried about fraud in enough other states to flip an election to Biden either. California is a lost cause. Philadelphia has all the ingredients for effective fraud, but has seen a bunch of recent indictments, which will dampen it in November.
Detroit has the ingredients too, which is why Baris just can’t bring himself to predict Trump holds Michigan. But he hedges, saying even with a very corrupt governor and the right setting in Detroit, they still might not be able to pull it off.
Watch the part of the video on Michigan. The electorate is swinging there, more than Baris thought possible. Largely because of the trade deals bringing manufacturing back to Michigan. Trump is giving them their auto industry back. They love him for it.
Anyway, interesting look at historic data by @GOPrincess, but I think it will miss the mark by quite a wide margin - but in a direction that will give her a big smile on election night. Trump is winning Minnesota. And so are all the Congressional candidates except in CDs 4 & 5.
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