Re: Bitecofer-Epstein Model, 99.5% Chance of Biden Victory
To address some of the questions about our model, I'm going to keep this thread ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต going to talk about the final result we got: 99.5% chance of victory for Biden. One of the reasons that we have such a high prob.
for Biden is that our model is actually very different than 538 and the Economist model in that it is devoid of polls. There's no Monmouth, Quinnipiac, or any other polling survey data in our model (one exception, coming up soon). So most of the criteria were are using to make
our predictions isn't coming with associated error. The one exception is the Civiqs data we used to track Trump's approval rating. However, otherwise, data for previous Midterm results, demographics, and previous electoral history doesn't come with errors bars.
Further, the model is so keen on Biden winning (w/ 99.5% certainty) b/c we've calculated that Biden is expected to be +9 in MN, +7 in PA, +6 in MI, +4 in WI, +1 in NC, +1 in GA, +5 in AZ, even in TX, +4 in FL. This gives him ample opportunity to get to 270. Our data is based
around negative partisanship and realignment effects impacting the election, so they're not meant to consider, "what if nothing changed at all since 2016?" because our theory is that things have considerably changed, here is by how much.

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