As a Spad in the NI Office I sat in on a meeting between the SoS and families of the Omagh bombing victims. It’s one of the most moving experiences of my life to date, and it will stay with me always. They were determined that no family should go through what they did.
They didn’t harbour any resentment, hatred or confusion about what had happened. Stopping another atrocity, another unbearable heartache for someone else’s mother, son, brother, sister, daughter - that was their only mission. Peace in Ireland was everything to them.
And they were there when the last bit of devolution was delivered on a very sunny day at Stormont. And I know some in the NIO became lifelong friends with some of them. The GFA was a miracle to communities who’d faced the reality of the “Troubles” day in day out.
And to see today government MPs tweeting about how Biden is only chasing the Irish-American vote, how the GFA should make way for Brexit and how the “EU is a threat to peace” it’s all I can do to restrain my total, complete contempt and disgust.
I’m afraid I don’t have the reserves of trust, dignity and calm that those incredible people I met at Hillsborough Castle do. They’re the best of us and those talking down the peace process aren’t worth a fraction of them.
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I first worked in NI as a SpAd to the then NI Secretary. I fell instantly in love with it; the people, its landscapes and above all the overwhelming desire to move away from the past. There was always a minority threatening the peace, but a delicate balance existed. It worked.
And the awful truth is that balance has been disturbed by people in this government who didn’t - and don’t - give NI the slightest concern. Their Brexit project didn’t have time for such distractions and technicalities as the NI Peace Process.
Peace in NI is not inevitable, *but nor is it irretrievable even with where we are now*. But it will take enormous effort and expenditure of huge amounts of political energy. Nothing about Johnson, or his cabinet of sycophants, gives me any confidence at all they’re up to the job
“Australia” sounds great with beaches, sun and wallabies but *there is no EU-Aus deal - he is dressing up chaos*
“Canada” is a very basic FTA with terms that might work for a jurisdiction 6,000km from the EU but not for a country next door, where the EU is BY FAR its biggest mkt
The truth is that for all this “we are ready for no deal” the reality is of course we’re not - we’re not even ready for the threadbare deal that’s possible. It’s hard to plan for tariffs but *impossible for all but the very biggest businesses* to plan for quotas.
This report concludes - rightly - that unless the EU and UK can reach an agreement on professional services it will do significant harm to the UK economy, and firms that export their services will have to rely on bilateral agreements between the UK and individual member states.
This places the UK service sector at a considerable disadvantage, whereby EU member states in which UK firms can currently freely compete face the mercy of national regulators to decide what level of provision they are able to offer. Some may be lucky, many will not.
Here’s the rub: Johnson decided the most important thing was NOT to extend transition and to have agreement by this Thursday, 15 October. He did this during a global pandemic, when everyone else was dealing with an immediate emergency and not Brexit.
The UK could realistically act as a significant back-channel for goods into the EU that do not meet its standards. That is not a realistic threat from Canada, which at nearest point is 3,000km from EU.
This is why the “level playing field” - no race to the bottom - is demanded.
You cannot realistically accept no deal without comprehending the level of disruption that would bring.
There would be an *immediate and significant* increase in checks and barriers for goods impacting many things from food supply to parts, to medicines.
UK has 2 land borders with EU (1 a tunnel) and its goods/ food often arrive via mega ports in EU such as Rotterdam. The Commission has never said UK wld copy Canada agreement - it’s always been clear that there would be additional benefits/ obligations 1/
The share of Canada’s trade with EU is barely 10pc of 🇨🇦 economy - whereas for the UK it’s almost half. In many regions of UK (“e.g. Red Wall”) the dependency on the single market is almost total. Often one large employer which has located in UK b/c of access to EU market. 2/
Given the UK’s proximity to EU, the fact that trade is largely governed by geography despite what we hear about “global Britain”, and the backstop in NI, it would be *unthinkable* for EU to allow there to be a regulatory back channel for companies to undercut standards via UK. 3/