@eastmed_NRG @stevensonpeter8 @FionaMullenCY Past few days ive been doing my research on Cynergy and what could be behind it all. This will be quite a long thread to analyse it all (as far as we can see into whats going on)
Its becoming clear now that i have read through everything Cynergy related that there was a lot more to it with the story than what appeared last year across Greek-Cypriot @PoulladosM , Gulf-Arab @jcgnana and US media @kbenme mentions of Cynergy last year.
The google-translations of articles appearing in Greek Media @Sigmalivecom are OK for an overview but I want to try and make sense of them a bit more before posting about them.
It all started with prnewswire.com/news-releases/…
then The Bloomberg article bloomberg.com/news/articles/… followed by thenational thenational.ae/business/energ… pieces
but the main content is really in cynergyeastmed.com & modusoperandicapital.com websites for those prepared to go through it all to come to views on whats involved (or better whos involved) in the story
From a helicopter view I view Cynergy as a disruptive/entrepreneurial play. Maybe this is whats needed in this region and in this current situation. Through this thread we can debate whats going on here
From my perspective cynergyeastmed.com played the media well in terms of what it has said and done over the past year. The timing of Cynergys entry into the fray, in hindsight, was ahead of some pretty important events that needed to play out geopolitically
and it seems that what they put on the table as to their strategy was very well informed. There isn’t anything on the web regarding the Cynergy story since May last year but since May 2019 we have seen a lot happen that bring things to an interesting juncture
The past 18months have been very interesting in the East Med. April/May 2019 Erdogan hadn’t played his cards in the region to the full extent as he now has with Libya/Syria/Russia over the past year. Erdogan hadn’t gone into the Aegean and Cyprus last year in the same way
it feels like Cynergy went in early in a strategic manner then kept patient to see things unfold before making a transactional move.
the situation now has me wondering where Cynergy is at. This is the opportune moment for Cynergy to show its hand. If they really do have an entrepreneurial solution then the region and its stakeholders need to know about it so as to consider it seriously or turn it down.
Its time for clarity that can only come from Cynergy showing its hand. With what happened over the past year it means that if Cynergy was waiting for the opportune moment before taking a big step in financing/consolidating regional assets it was right to do so.
now things have played out its time to see if Cynergy was anything other than a flash in the pan. Is it credible? whats the plan?
Cynergy had made some big claims last year. That it was talking to big funds/banks and that it was ready to land offers on the table by Mid June last year. It could be that was all true and doable but that seeing events unfold Cynergy had decided to strategically hold back
maybe they preferred to wait and see whilst monitoring when best to make the move/s. Theres always chance that Cynergy however did make its move.
If there are extensive NDA’s in place between Cynergy and funds/banks/Super-Majors as to their plans then we wouldn’t know about it in the open.
So it could be that Cynergy is in the waiting game or actually progressing but its hard to see how they would progress now given Chevron is clearly taking the lead on the Leviathan/Aphrodite situation.
Question is which assets Cynergy was going for, within what structure and how theyre affected by Chevron moves. If not going for assets now linked to Chevron deal what was their grand-scheme? How could this all be related to Elliott?
To understand Cynergy and its gameplan ive been trying to analyse what deals Cynergy could have been targeting and how events have affected potential transactions.
I have tried to look at the regional, industrial, geopolitical events of this past year on the East Med with a view to questioning if it would have been right for Cynergy to make bids, announce transactions or fund-raisings pre or post such event/s.
Later on I could list each event ive factored and we can debate if holding back was right. To me it seems its only right for Cynergy to come out into effecting transactions now the situation is much more mature in region.
also given thought as to how current regional stakeholders (likes of Exxon, Shell, Noble, Chevron etc or host-governments) would see Cynergy. My gut-feel is that existing players would be defensive and not particularly like such an approach coming to the table to shake things up.
Once super-majors are in a license or have developed assets they don’t particularly like Govts to have other options – the corporates will want the host-govts most reliant on them as that’s how the corporates can pull the strings on defining plans and timelines.
govts would also be weary of a Cynergy/Entrepreneurial approach as the host-country govts would much prefer the likes of Exxon to get the job done. The supermajors bring capital, credibility, ability and a great story for any host government to convey to its electorate. .
translate.google.com/translate?sl=e… first article in sigmalive translated followed by translate.google.com/translate?sl=e… article then interview with founder translate.google.com/translate?hl=&…
we can see in this region that theres been a great opportunity for some time and no matter all key super-majors being there and the host govts championing them isnt full monetisation yet
Hopefully things will change with Chevron entry but there are no guarantees of that. So – even if current stakeholders could be defensive and talk-down a Cynergy approach does it really matter?
If Cynergy comes to the table with the right approach, brings capital and works with a supermajor (or two) then why not
Now it feels that there is the most visibility on various moving parts and there is a sweet spot for an entrepreneurial plan to come to the table.
Analysing the cynergyeastmed.com website I can see that they have prepared for this situation so as to bring a solution to the table but the entrepreneurial play needs to be ready for action otherwise its more noise at a time when things are very serious.
Time for Cynergy to go big or go (or stay) home.
If Cynergy indeed comes forward with a well financed, structured and meaningful regional deal to consolidate assets whilst maybe working with a $CVX +/- Shell (Maybe Exxon/Eni/Who knows) then it will have proven itself as a player
If Cynergy indeed comes forward with a well financed, structured and meaningful regional deal to consolidate assets whilst maybe working with a $CVX +/- Shell (Maybe Exxon/Eni/Who knows) then it will have proven itself as a player
If it doesn’t prove itself and gain traction so as to progress consolidation of a regional deal then the Cynergy/Modus iniatives will have proven to be a waste of time and credibility of those involved directly or indirectly helping it.
It could be the case that the gameplan of Cynergy was to say a little, progress a lot quietly (talk softly and carry a big stick) and then re-appear ready and willing to proceed when the time comes.
Irrespective of what Cynergy proves itself to be and what it proves capable of doing the fact is that there is a team and a bunch of stakeholders involved around this that really know the game. Probably better than they would have most believe.
For example if there is Kessler involvement in Cynergy then that brings credibility and experience with Shell - It doesnt seem that Cynergy is just an entrepreneur. Seems to be a team and board structure very well connected and capable 
@threadreaderapp unroll
pretty clear that Modus/Cynergy were set up to have strong ties into the region and industry. Key executives on Modus really having the experience in both Israel/UAE to be able to have an understanding on of the collaboration. Board members at Cynergy understanding energy assets
Looking into the Greek media coverage (albeit Google-Translated) it shows that actually Cynergys founder was very clear in quite a lengthy Q&A with sigmalive. Covered many angles that looking back today shows a very strategic approach to the region and assets. Interesting.
Bloomberg mentioned - The company is in talks with “some of the most respected global family offices, private equity firms and sovereign funds” about raising the cash and thenational discusses Cynergy discussions with Gulf capital. What happened since?
quote from bloomberg article: “The region needs a maverick approach,” Germanos said. The companies invested in the East Med should “at least treat it as an option.”
bloomberg article: - While countries are pushing for collaboration, friction between the various firms involved in the East Med, which sometimes have competing interests, has bogged down the industry, Germanos said. Consolidating the disparate assets would help, he said.
major gas firms “don’t work across the whole region,” Germanos said. They seek to maximize their own investments, whereas Cynergy “is the only one that put the team, the backers and the plan needed to create the vehicle that could launch a series of transaction and see this thru
bloomberg: Cynergy has “approached and is further approaching” companies with “major stakes across the East Med,” Germanos said, adding that it’s in discussions to retain one of the active firms to operate the assets ... /where is cynergy now?
they were clearly laying out how they work with key advisors and teams across Abu Dhabi, Israel and the US and how they brought that experience together with the Greek team. For all that to come together it isnt simple. Definitely alot there backstage...
Its also very clear that the team involved understand the East Med assets. Looking into the profile of Cynergy energy directors we can see experience in region and in industry
Some simple "googling" around the East Med and GR-CY-Turkey issues will show how much attention east med gas is getting. Takes quite a bit of analysis but much clearer to see today what the moving parts are... where theyre going... potential outcomes and solutions needed
When Cynergy discussed with bloomberg its plan for a 5-10bn acquisition spree it must have been considering some sort of Israel-Cyprus-Egypt "tie up" and that would have meant stakes in Leviathan, Aphrodite, IDKU and/or Damietta at that point.
cant see which other assets they could have been considering within the range of investment size discussed. Since then though there has been further gas finds in Cyprus and the Chevron/Noble deal so maybe there are alternative plans that Cynergy could be examining.
Have to look into where Exxon vs ENI vs Total are on the subject of what they would do with their Cypriot exploration licenses/stranded gas. Not impossible that any one of them or combo of them could roll into a deal together with or without Cynergy. Alot remains to be seen
on the question of how events could affect plans - my bet is that its easier for Cynergy to lead a deal in region (lets say for non-Noble/Chevron related assets at least) given the current climate. Exxon/ENI/Total more minded to re-examine plans and look into a Cynergy deal?
whilst Noble/Chevron may be finalising their deal the question is what the others would be doing about their Cyprus/Egypt positions? How does this affect the outcomes of the Chevron/Noble deal post close?
going back into Noble handling of Cyprus we can see they spent +1yr renegotiating a production sharing contract in their favor. PSC closed Nov 2019. They knew by then that Noble was looking to exit. Prime example how energy companies prefer to corner and manage govts...
on 2nd thoughts it comes down to dealstructure. What if a supermajor teams with a Cynergy to combine entrepreneurial drive/flex with supermajor cred and capacity? that can be structured. Once upon a time Shell helped woodside become a player...
googling on Gerry Peereboom i came across this golng.eu/files/Main/pre… showing that he was heading Nobles team looking into LNG options for Leviathan from back in 2013. Further in the web i found he was part of planning Israel to Egypt/Jordan gas flow. Clear e med experience
Team across Modus/Cynergy have experience across Abu Dhabi, Israel, Cyprus - given whats happening now this could be a vehicle leading the next stage of Gulf-Israel-Greek cooperation with US involvement? many maybes
i saw many references to Israel, Abu Dhabi, Cyprus. Director of Cynergy has lived in Abu Dhabi working for BP, the COO of Modus was CEO largest conglomerate in Abu Dhabi. Key team members have experience in Israel & Cyprus. Very interesting composition of team
Going a bit further into it i would hazard a guess that Cynergy is on the radar of the likes of Mubadala, ADIA and ADNOC in Abu Dhabi and on radar with the likes of PIF in KSA. Only so many sovereign/industrial interests that Cynergy would/should be talking to in Gulf for +500m
from thenational article: "It’s going to take some time but what we bring to the table is the ability for the parties to come together and get capital from sources that have not just a commercial but also a geopolitical interest in the region,” said Mr Germanos.
quite interesting when you see the rising involvement and support from Abu Dhabi and the gulf on East Med issues alongside France and others. Seems there has been a lot of work quietly for some time to come to economic diplomacy solutions that empower regional collaboration
the "going to take some time" part of what was said was really spot on. Seems that moves in region and on the energy front were known and planned for way ahead of what we see happening now but i guess thats reasonable - regional planning esp on Energy takes time and timing
at the same time Anadolu Agency writes up what such a Gulf-Israel-Greek-French collaboration means vs Turkey positioning. Finger pointing at Gulf financing of Greek role in Security + effects on Energy?aa.com.tr/en/analysis/an…
Greece sold €2.5 billion (US$2.9 billion) worth of bonds to international markets on Sept. 2, without waiting for Macron's arrival to finance the fighter jets to be purchased from France.
It is not difficult to guess the addresses of the buyers of these bonds, considering that the armament programs of Egypt, Greece and Southern Cyprus are indirectly financed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.
While this picture brings the United Nations’ silence to this alliance, which is becoming increasingly aggressive in the Eastern Mediterranean, it also makes it easy for Athens to reject without any reasons NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg's efforts to start a dialogue
... too many things happening same time to be unrelated.
on the other side of the argument interesting analysis from Jake Sotiriadis
https://twitter.com/MiddleEastInst/status/1255562512520695808?s=20on behalf of Middle East Institute.
Interesting background linkedin.com/in/jakesotiria…
on the subject of interesting backgrounds greeks-in-foreign-cockpits.com/pilots-crews/n… - Demetries was deputy commander at souda bay for the US Navy in Crete
Interesting Daily Sabah piece about Souda bay in Crete. Am no expert in this but trying to piece together whats potentially going to happen here and how it affects East Med security/energy dailysabah.com/politics/diplo…
Feels to me that the Greek-Cypriots are increasingly relying upon elements within the Greek-American lobby that can liaise with Gulf/Israel lobbies in DC so as to support a position of reaching collaborative solutions in the region.
No doubt Greek side will continue exploring diplomatic solutions with Turkey and go into Germany/NATO sponsored discussions with Turkey as needed but will do so with their groundwork done to keep a respectable position with Turkey at the negotiating table
also a lot of careful wording in this one jiss.org.il/en/inbar-lerma… but the general vibe is one of Israeli needing to be ultra careful and balanced about the Turkish situation. Seems a lot of worst-case-scenario management is in play to mitigate risks....
mfa.gr/en/current-aff… in parallel to what could be happening between Cynergy and Abu Dhabi there is definitely an official economic diplomacy play in motion between Abu Dhabi and Greece. To a lesser extent we see increased relations with UAE-Cyprus but on a quieter basis
Its clear Crown Prince MBZ taking a personal involvement in supporting East Med regional relations with Greece and regional partners. This is as recent as 1st September 2020. Interesting to see how this plays out
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