Sam Rosenfeld Profile picture
Sep 18, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1. A typically great piece that also links to this recent deep-dive by @dylanmatt on the poli sci literature on canvassing and gotv: vox.com/21366036/canva…
2. One piece of background context to pieces like these is that a cohort of young progressive data people, of whom @davidshor is a leading example, have for a few years now been promulgating the notion that door-knocking is a lib indulgence and inefficient vote-getter.
3. Their arguments had begun to influence the thinking of journalists in their orbit but hadn't quite coalesced as a new public-facing #Take to counter the narrative of an Obama-'08-birthed renaissance of Dem field ops. Then God decided to launch a natural experiment via Covid.
4. Without the pandemic, a cash-flushed Biden campaign would have no reason not to throw money at field even if it *suspected* it was inefficient to do so, just to be safe. But given the pandemic, we're instead watching a maximally high-stakes and high-profile test.
5. The Matthews piece synthesizes a lot of recent poli sci work that bolsters the canvassing-skeptical case, but also usefully highlights the fact that there remains live debate over the strongest version of it (i.e. that campaigns should deemphasize field in favor of ads).
6. (This is useful because the house style for this cohort of data folks in their public engagement tends toward a kind of affect of blithe confidence that makes me a little nervous.)
7. Goldberg's column also includes some very useful reporting, notably a rosier assessment of the Biden operation from the same Michigan Dem Party operative (now chair) who sounded the alarm about HRC four years ago. /end

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Sam Rosenfeld

Sam Rosenfeld Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @sam_rosenfeld

Jun 1, 2023
I think it's pretty clear that the 21st-century trajectory of party-class alignment and party *policy* on most economic matters runs in the opposite direction of materialist expectations.
The initial 70's rise of postmaterialist issues alongside pol-econ transformations really did shift Dems (& center-left parties elsewhere) in a neoliberal direction over the following two decades. That hasn't been true in the last two, even as the electorate has cont'd shifting.
For now there seem to be particular limits on affluent Dems' economic liberalism that obviously connect to their material interests: tax hikes on those making under $250,000, threats to upper-middle-class vehicles like 529s, the subnational politics of housing and schools, etc.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 13, 2021
Two small points re. ongoing debates over "popularism" and @davidshor-style arguments for Dem message discipline and selective issue moderation, in the spirit of reducing the propensity of folks to talk past each other:
1.) The context of polarized partisan parity + Dems' growing structural disadvantages under American political institutions seems to me central to the popularist case in specific strategic disputes, though in a way that underscores the rather grim limits of the implicit vision.
Polarization and competitive partisan strength turn contemporary elections into brutal games of inches, and Dems' growing structural problem means that *every extra vote they can possibly scrape up* matters existentially.
Read 10 tweets
May 13, 2021
Possibly an extremely obvious observation but: Notwithstanding enduring gripes about both-sides journalism, it’s striking how firmly mainstream media has refused to adopt a he-said-she-said neutrality frame for the 2020 election even as the GOP firms up its Trump commitments.
This is in keeping w: what were clearly consciously made Trump-era choices by outlets to resist the balance-over-accuracy trap on various stories involving brazen Trump lies. It’s a good thing! But it really is different from the pre-Trump pattern re big political controversies.
Obviously this only deepens the gulf of trust (forged by right-wing activists and elites) between conservative voters and mainstream journalism, and the solidifies the GOP’s epistemic closure.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 3, 2020
Election day treacle:

We’re looking at turnout rates unseen either in 60 yrs or a century. Under daunting circumstances, millions have mobilized in new and old ways. The work people have put in has been staggering. And if you zoom out to take in the whole Trump presidency…
…you see an ongoing historic civic flourishing in politics. The Women’s March & rolling demonstrations in 2017. The organizing behind the record-setting 2018 midterms. The emergence of the socialist left in electoral and Dem programmatic politics. The BLM protests this summer…
These are distinct efforts with varying goals and plenty of robust conflict between and amongst them. But they’re also all the broadly progressive work of Americans exercising old civic muscles to build a better country. It’s inspiring and I’m very grateful.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 23, 2020
I'm just a simple country professor but it seems to me that both sides of Letter Discourse have reached consensus that "free speech" & abstract procedural principles are red herrings here--boundaries of socially (rather than legally) acceptable opinion will ALWAYS be drawn…(1/6)
…and the real debate is just the substantive one re where those boundaries should fall. But having conceded that, both sides largely stick to arguments in the abstract! It's what trips TCW up w/ Chotiner--but it frankly can also come off as a dodge on the anti-Letter side. (2/6)
The key to the David Shor case is that, by the accounts I've seen, pressure to fire him came from clients & Civis colleagues who shared the *sincere* & earnest belief that his Wasow tweets were racist. This sincere view also led to his expulsion from a political listserve. (3/6 )
Read 6 tweets
Sep 1, 2019
I’m trying to enjoy my sabbatical this semester but Dan Crenshaw keeps forcing me to relive the one set of Intro to American Politics discussions that invariably gets me genuinely and unprofessionally aggravated.
As a sidenote, part of the multidimensional aggravating-ness of these discussions is that these people aren't even mounting this (horrible) defense on behalf of the right institution.
The EC does give a somewhat disproportionate voice to small state residents, but by far the most significant driver of distortion and of pop-vote/EC mismatches is the winner-take-all allocation of electoral votes everywhere except for ME and NE.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(