Chris Powers Profile picture
Sep 18, 2020 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The Barbell Theory in Real Estate:

Early in my career, I listened to someone speak about how he spots emerging areas, big or small. He called it the "Barbell Theory".

It's simple yet powerful.

Imagine a barbell, each end of the bar well holds all the weight & density.
For real estate, imagine that each end of the barbell is a well-established area, with traffic traveling to and from.

Ask yourself, what connects those two areas?

What major thoroughfare(s) connect the traffic traveling to and from?
If the area between each end of the barbell has had no capital invested in it, you might be primed for an area that offers a huge upside if developed.

The key to any emerging area is there has to be demand and people need to "show up".

It also has to be visible.
The beautiful thing about an area that is starved of capital investment, yet sits in between a "barbell" is that the traffic you're looking for is already coming through each day, they just don't have a reason to stop.

That's where the investor/developer comes in to play.
At a city-level you could think of one end of the barbell as downtown.

The other end could be a well-established neighborhood.

People are traveling to and from each end of the barbell every day.

Now, focus on what's inbetween.
On a state level, take Texas, think of one end being DFW and the other end being Austin.

What connects them? I-35. The traffic is massive.

This would lead me to think there are some cities along that drive that are ripe for development.
To no surprise, Waco is starting to explode, which is right in the middle of Austin and DFW, along I-35.

If you're looking to invest in an emerging area, think about the Barbell Theory.

It works.

🇺🇸
Here is the Barbell theory in practice. This is an example from my infill assemblage thread yesterday.

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More from @fortworthchris

Oct 23, 2023
Cities hate industrial

Supply of Class B industrial is shrinking every year

Meanwhile, growth of Class A is slowing dramatically

And now it’s getting much harder to build new industrial buildings in urban cores across the US

What comes next for industrial?

A few thoughts:
Everyone needs their Amazon packages delivered within a few hours, but nobody wants a Class A industrial warehouse in their neighborhood.

Everyone needs an emergency HVAC repair tech to come immediately, but no one wants a Class B Industrial building down the road from them.
Whether you’re talking Class A or B, new development is slowing down.

Construction is slowing dramatically.

But demand remains strong from tenants.

This dynamic is played out in every single major American city.

Take Dallas, for example:
Read 18 tweets
Sep 25, 2023
Where is all the class B industrial going?

These two pictures sum up our bull thesis for Dallas and several other markets

Let me explain:
Image
Image
Every single major city in the United States is supply constrained when it comes to Class B Industrial

The supply is shrinking each year as tenant demand continues to grow

Dallas is a prime example
When cities like Dallas grew quickly in the 50s and 60s, you had the downtown office core and industrial just outside the core of the city

Factories and warehouses filled the perimeter of Dallas to make products and ship them out. Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 29, 2023
There's a problem in the real estate market:

Rising property insurance rates.

Here’s what I’m seeing & how our team is thinking about the problem:
Earlier this year, State Farm announced it would stop writing new homeowner insurance policies in California

This came as a shock to many, but this has actually been years in the making Image
While rising homeowners insurance rates are national news this year, commercial real estate folks have been seeing this trend for years

Here’s a story from late 2020: Image
Read 15 tweets
Aug 23, 2023
Here's why I'm incredibly bullish on Class B Industrial real estate: Image
Every single major city in the United States is supply constrained when it comes to Class B Industrial

And the supply is shrinking each year as tenant demand continues to grow
In Texas, we estimate a decline of 1-2% per year.

For example, this is a popular area of Fort Worth called W 7th.

(2007 on the left / 2022 on the right) 👇
Image
Image
Read 15 tweets
May 15, 2023
Fort has been all-in on acquiring Class B Industrial (CBI) since 2016.

Here's why in no particular order:
1. By nature of the era (70's - 90's) it was built, it is infill and surrounded by mature infrastructure. Transportation systems, major arteries, homes, commercial, hospitals, universities, etc.

One can’t over estimate the value of mature infrastructure surrounding a property.
2. Companies continue to optimize for being close to their customer so they can serve or deliver product faster.

Billions are invested annually to optimize the entire supply chain. As landlords, we benefit from these ever increasing efficiencies.

That is why #1 is important.
Read 21 tweets
Feb 28, 2023
🚨New Episode: @pyrtbilly - Founder of Fyre Festival

- detailed stories of the day before and the day of the festival
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