A few people that follow me have complained they want finance discussion, not social justice rants. All new investors.

It's actually THE SAME ISSUE. In order to discuss where the market is going, you need to understand where it's been.

Inequality is a signal.

<thread>
2/ First, it's rare for me to discuss discrimination *I* face. I discuss rising inequalities, and historic inequalities in the context of the history of commerce.

That's because as inequality begins to become a bigger discussion, the gap is widening.
3/ When economies boom, we see resources spread across society more readily. Fewer people see the injustices that impact society, and a lot of people suffering think they're just a few moves at work from breaking out of the cycle.

The injustices still happen...
4/ ... people just aren't in the streets, demanding change. Instead, that sliver of hope prevents a lot of focus on those issues.

Basically, these periods have fewer recorded issues of unrest, and therefore history is pretty light on the coverage of them. When things go south.
5/ When the economy is in decline, we see resource allocation tighten – and fast. People with existing connections and privilege still have access to the wealth.

It's just cut off from those with fewer privileges. This is when people go out in the streets, and demand change.
6/ As inequalities have greater recognition, the market approaches a top. We see a final divergence, where the rich hoard as much as possible, and those with modest incomes realize the system was rigged against them.

Once this happens, those with some privilege align.
7/ The disruption of commerce finally hits a system, and rich people start losing money. Governments throw people a bone, taken from the rich, and this redistribution marks a positive for society, but a dip in the market.
8/ Once redistribution has reached an optimism phase, people begin to enjoy their bone, and believe they can work up the system again.

The cycle restarts.

<thread/>
This is also why older dudes in Greenwich, with more money than god, who I have a little street cred with, call me to say, "explain defund the police?"

... and 30 y/o guys that bought their first stock last year, DM to say white people are the real victims in society.

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More from @StephenPunwasi

Dec 3
🇨🇦: who wants a funny GDP story? 🙋‍♂️

When a quant sees an unexpected surge on a chart, they break it down—it’s often a modeling issue.

This is 🇨🇦’s GDP chart. I stared at it for ~8 hours & talked to StatCan. You’re gonna laugh…

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ What do we see? Imports contributed 0.7 points out of 0.6 points of Q3 GDP growth. The rest of the economy was a net drag.

Imports contribute to GDP as a part of net exports: exports minus imports.

Smaller imports boost net exports. Imports made the biggest drop since 2022.
3/ What we’re seeing is a phenomenon called import compression: the balance was boosted by falling imports.

It’s a superficial improvement due accounting mechanics. The only growth is actually weakness.

We figured it out. But wait—how do they get import/export data? 😬
Read 12 tweets
Nov 20
🇨🇦’s real estate is about to spiral faster than most realize.

The red is the estimated level of investor-owned units. A lot don’t have the cash & hoped to flip it before completion.

It gets crazier. Let’s talk about blanket appraisals.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ first off, when you buy a pre-construction home in 🇨🇦 you don’t own a home—you own an assignment. The right to a home on completion.

You aren’t qualified in anyway way. You make the deposits until you have 20% down at occupancy, and then you need to provide cash or financing.
3/ Lenders will do up to 80% LTV, so you need at least 20% equity on the property.

If prices rise, you have extra equity by completion. If they fall, you need to top it up.

Here’s the fun part: Prices dropped over 20% in TO since peak, wiping out the deposit.
Read 11 tweets
Oct 23
Pst… while the normies are sleeping—let’s talk about serial killers.

Specifically, the 70s boom & bust. Most experts attribute the disappearance of serial killers to improved social conditions.

What if the only thing that disappeared is the data? This gets wild.

<thread> 🧵👇 Image
2/ first rule of data literacy: what are we looking at?

This chart shows 🇺🇸 data from the Radford/FGCU, which defines a serial killer as someone who murders 2 or more in separate instances.

That definition broadens the label—even reclassifying infamous murderers like Ed Gein.
3/ Experts often attribute the rise to:
- Mobility: New highways let killers flee; victims were farther from home & community

- Post-war trauma: Returning vets passed trauma to their kids

- Anonymity: As people moved further from home, they knew fewer neighbors
Read 16 tweets
Oct 9
🇨🇦: Canada Post is losing money.

The left thinks that’s okay. The right thinks it now needs to be sold off.

The elites & their politicians? They don’t want you to realize that Canada Post’s losses were manufactured so they could loot a public asset.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ InnovaPost was Canada Post’s in house IT provider, handling key infrastructure like email and its shipping platform.

Brilliant. This allows internal transfer for the lowest cost, since any profits are returned.

It was sold to Deloitte in 2024. Obvs they must be suckers.
3/ Canada Post built SCI, a third-party logistics company (3LP) w/ synergistic operations. It was one of 🇨🇦’s largest 3PLs, essential ecommerce infrastructure.

“SCI has been a strong performer for the Canada Post Group of Companies over the years,” Canada Post’s CEO in 2024.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 3
Have you noticed smart people are suddenly irrational—ignoring facts & embracing narrative?

It’s not your imagination—it’s a biological phenomenon exploited by leaders & we’re all vulnerable to it.

Let’s talk about amygdala flooding & neurobiological hijacking.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ Bonhoeffer, a Lutheran pastor executed for trying to kill Hitler, famously touched on this in his theory of stupidity.

Stumped by the normal people he knew suddenly becoming Nazis, he concluded they’re not evil—they’re stupid.

Stupidity is way worse than you think.
3/ to him , stupidity is surrendering one’s ability to think, making one incapable of self-reflection or moral judgment.

It’s not greed. People are so stressed they’re outsourcing thinking.

This is why facts have no impact—there’s no consideration.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 23
🇨🇦’s wild these days.
- Money laundering capital of the world
- the global fentanyl “command & control center”
- home to transnational organized crime heads
- at least 1 in 7,800 residents are members of organized crimes.

How did this happen so fast?

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ first of all, most folks in 🇨🇦 don’t realize how bad things are yet, they’re just dealing with the consequences.

Soaring housing costs. Rising car thefts. Unaffordable housing, Overdoses in your hood. Violence in your streets.

All related.
3/ 🇨🇦’s home prices soared in the mid-2010s due to laundering.

Fentanyl proceeds were washed in casinos, then layered w/housing. It’s now called the Vancouver model.

Home prices surged since comps were skewed, & launderers WANT to pay more.

Dive into this later.
Read 11 tweets

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