A few people that follow me have complained they want finance discussion, not social justice rants. All new investors.

It's actually THE SAME ISSUE. In order to discuss where the market is going, you need to understand where it's been.

Inequality is a signal.

<thread>
2/ First, it's rare for me to discuss discrimination *I* face. I discuss rising inequalities, and historic inequalities in the context of the history of commerce.

That's because as inequality begins to become a bigger discussion, the gap is widening.
3/ When economies boom, we see resources spread across society more readily. Fewer people see the injustices that impact society, and a lot of people suffering think they're just a few moves at work from breaking out of the cycle.

The injustices still happen...
4/ ... people just aren't in the streets, demanding change. Instead, that sliver of hope prevents a lot of focus on those issues.

Basically, these periods have fewer recorded issues of unrest, and therefore history is pretty light on the coverage of them. When things go south.
5/ When the economy is in decline, we see resource allocation tighten – and fast. People with existing connections and privilege still have access to the wealth.

It's just cut off from those with fewer privileges. This is when people go out in the streets, and demand change.
6/ As inequalities have greater recognition, the market approaches a top. We see a final divergence, where the rich hoard as much as possible, and those with modest incomes realize the system was rigged against them.

Once this happens, those with some privilege align.
7/ The disruption of commerce finally hits a system, and rich people start losing money. Governments throw people a bone, taken from the rich, and this redistribution marks a positive for society, but a dip in the market.
8/ Once redistribution has reached an optimism phase, people begin to enjoy their bone, and believe they can work up the system again.

The cycle restarts.

<thread/>
This is also why older dudes in Greenwich, with more money than god, who I have a little street cred with, call me to say, "explain defund the police?"

... and 30 y/o guys that bought their first stock last year, DM to say white people are the real victims in society.

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More from @StephenPunwasi

Apr 23
🇨🇦’s wild these days.
- Money laundering capital of the world
- the global fentanyl “command & control center”
- home to transnational organized crime heads
- at least 1 in 7,800 residents are members of organized crimes.

How did this happen so fast?

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ first of all, most folks in 🇨🇦 don’t realize how bad things are yet, they’re just dealing with the consequences.

Soaring housing costs. Rising car thefts. Unaffordable housing, Overdoses in your hood. Violence in your streets.

All related.
3/ 🇨🇦’s home prices soared in the mid-2010s due to laundering.

Fentanyl proceeds were washed in casinos, then layered w/housing. It’s now called the Vancouver model.

Home prices surged since comps were skewed, & launderers WANT to pay more.

Dive into this later.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 22
Funny story. About a year ago I was crunching 🇨🇦’s immigration data & found a really neat issue.

… over 1 in 6 of 🇨🇦’s claimed immigrants don’t actually exist in the country.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ I was looking at immigrant cohorts from the 1980s & forward, & noticed an interesting pattern: 1 in 7 would disappear from taxfiler data.

They drop out faster in recent data, but still consistent. In finance a predictable pattern usually means 1 of 2 things: fraud or error.
3/ so I contact Stat Can & inquire to make sure I understood the data correctly. I did.

About a month later, Stat Can conducts a study & concludes *drumroll* 1 in 6 immigrants probably left the country… since 1980.

🇨🇦 isn’t sure because it doesn’t track departures.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 13
🇨🇦 just busted 3 fentanyl labs in 2 days.

All well equipped, industrial scale facilities within a short-drive of each other in BC. All to produce the fentanyl 🇨🇦 totally doesn’t have.

Tragically I’m not your fentanyl czar, but here’s what I’d notice if I were. 😉

<thread>🧵👇 Image
Image
2/ this is a fun photo. Nothing brown is used to synth fentanyl. Precursors are clear or white.

But aniline, an essential manufacturing chem, is light brown & darkens as it oxidizes.

Only problem is aniline isn’t used in fentanyl production. wtf, eh? Image
3/ However, aniline is used to make fentanyl precursors. RCMP said 2 of 3 labs in the fentanyl bust were manufacturing fentanyl.

What was the 3rd? I’m not a fishing license expert like 🇨🇦’s newly appointed fentanyl czar, but it sure looks like a precursor lab.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 24
Is 🇨🇦’s healthcare system failing due to socialism or capitalism?

Neither. The math is pretty clear—this is just straight up greed, facilitated by crummy people.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ first off, everyone forgets it's hard to be a doctor.

Most people can't finish a book.

A doctor in 🇨🇦 is the result of a 13 year old who decides they'll top their class & do 12-years of post-secondary training to start their career.

Let this point REALLY sink in.
3/ I mean, really sink in. You're delusional if you think you could do it. I couldn't.

The folks in charge didn't need that training. Ontario elected a high school drop out (about to be re-elected). 🇨🇦 elected a high school teacher.

My point isn't to make fun of politicians...
Read 19 tweets
Feb 12
Folks in 🇨🇦 keep explaining to me that we don’t have 🇺🇸-like crime.

It’s true. Here’s a brief list of the 🇺🇸 crime that never happens in 🇨🇦.

<thread> 🧵👇
2. in 🇺🇸, their anti-money laundering & enforcement budgets are soaring to deal with crime.

In 🇨🇦, we’re so confident that there’s no laundering that politicians confidently slash the budgets. Image
3. In 🇺🇸, defunding the police is extremely controversial.

In 🇨🇦, we don’t hesitate. Ontario immediately cut its financial crimes unit. Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 7
People think 🇨🇦 is lax on money laundering because it’s good for the economy. Nope.

It’s so much worse. The lax enforcement turned into organized crime capturing 🇨🇦. The legal system is now too scared to act. Seriously.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ First off, let’s talk about how extensive 🇨🇦’s organized crime (OG) problem is. The country’s OG intel agency estimates 2,600 groups operate in the country.

Since a gang is 3 people or more, at minimum they’re estimating 1 in 4000 adults are OC members. Image
3/ that means the ratio of OC to normal people is higher than the concentration of high school school teachers to people in Toronto.

Think about that for a second—how often do you see high schools across Toronto? Well, you’re more likely to see OC members than a teacher in one.
Read 21 tweets

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