A few people that follow me have complained they want finance discussion, not social justice rants. All new investors.

It's actually THE SAME ISSUE. In order to discuss where the market is going, you need to understand where it's been.

Inequality is a signal.

<thread>
2/ First, it's rare for me to discuss discrimination *I* face. I discuss rising inequalities, and historic inequalities in the context of the history of commerce.

That's because as inequality begins to become a bigger discussion, the gap is widening.
3/ When economies boom, we see resources spread across society more readily. Fewer people see the injustices that impact society, and a lot of people suffering think they're just a few moves at work from breaking out of the cycle.

The injustices still happen...
4/ ... people just aren't in the streets, demanding change. Instead, that sliver of hope prevents a lot of focus on those issues.

Basically, these periods have fewer recorded issues of unrest, and therefore history is pretty light on the coverage of them. When things go south.
5/ When the economy is in decline, we see resource allocation tighten – and fast. People with existing connections and privilege still have access to the wealth.

It's just cut off from those with fewer privileges. This is when people go out in the streets, and demand change.
6/ As inequalities have greater recognition, the market approaches a top. We see a final divergence, where the rich hoard as much as possible, and those with modest incomes realize the system was rigged against them.

Once this happens, those with some privilege align.
7/ The disruption of commerce finally hits a system, and rich people start losing money. Governments throw people a bone, taken from the rich, and this redistribution marks a positive for society, but a dip in the market.
8/ Once redistribution has reached an optimism phase, people begin to enjoy their bone, and believe they can work up the system again.

The cycle restarts.

<thread/>
This is also why older dudes in Greenwich, with more money than god, who I have a little street cred with, call me to say, "explain defund the police?"

... and 30 y/o guys that bought their first stock last year, DM to say white people are the real victims in society.

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More from @StephenPunwasi

Jul 19
Fun fact: 🇨🇦 issues student visas to anyone with a few bucks.

Here’s a quick thread on the hundreds of criminals that organized crime groups set up in 🇨🇦 using student visas.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ 🇺🇸’s DEA claims El Chapo made $3m/day in 🇨🇦 prior to his arrest, and they were surprised by how “deep infiltration” was.

His point man in 🇨🇦? Jesus Herrera Esperanza, aka Hondo—a “student” in 🇨🇦. No one knows where Hondo is these days. Image
3/ One of the world’s most powerful gangsters is former TO resident Lawrence Bishnoi—a 31 y/o that runs a global assassin & extortion network… from prison for the past 10 years.

His empire is allegedly run by his #2—Satinderjeet Singh, aka Goldy Brar. I wonder what he studied. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 26
Most people don't understand how interest rates, population growth, and immigration are related.

Let's fix that with a quick thread.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ A central bank's purpose is to control the decay of money, aka inflation.

If inflation is low, they cut rates to stimulate consumption by lowering the cost of borrowing. Since debt is your future income used today, this creates demand w/the goal of overrunning supply.
3/ Pretty easy since they can cut rates a lot faster than supply chains can respond, which is the goal. They're trying to raise prices to drive inflation, after all.

The opposite is also true. They raise rates to slow inflation by delaying demand so there's excess supply.
Read 18 tweets
May 16
Families in 🇨🇦 work *really* hard to survive.

Policymakers don’t appreciate that fact, when they’re spending years of your labor with a stroke of a pen.

They spend so much, people have a hard time fully comprehending these numbers.

Let’s put it in context.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ I constantly hear politicians & their minions say, “it’s only a million/billion,” like they made that last week at the race track.

In reality, the median household paid $9.3k in income taxes in 2022, and worked their ass off to do it.

How many had their cash incinerated?
3/ the widely acknowledged public failure known as ArriveCan cost at least $59.5m.

It’s the equivalent taxes paid by 6.4k median households that went to work for a whole year FFS.

This company wasn’t vetted, but 107.5k median households went to work to pay them. Image
Read 15 tweets
May 5
People in 🇨🇦 are historically very accepting of immigrants & the country's generous immigration policies.

Now they're sounding more split. Unfortunately, a lot of well-intended people are being exploited by predators to adopt their opinions.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ Historically, 🇨🇦's post-war immigration policy was extremely successful. That's because it generally focused on people who were:

- hard-working: often only leaving their home due to political or economic downturns;

- talented: academics & skilled labor;
3/ 🇨🇦 offered both groups the same thing—a life where hard work will allow them a safe & secure future for them to have a family.

In exchange, 🇨🇦 got an injection of productivity that helped its economy grow & drive the prosperity of everyone. Finding people against it was rare.
Read 17 tweets
Apr 21
Why is every politician discussing their aggressive plan for affordable housing?

… even the ones you know don’t care about it?

Well, they hijacked the term and weaponized it against the people who need it. Here’s how.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ in 🇨🇦, the term affordable housing now means a rental that’s 1/3 the median household income.

First off, a third of income isn’t really affordable. A third of income is the max allowable payment a mortgage borrower can accept before they’re considered too risky of a payer.
3/ so, affordable really means the max a person can reliably pay without being a default risk in this case.

in Canada, it also means maximum regulatory leverage. That doesn’t feel the same, does it?

Wait until you realize how that plays into distribution.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 17
Hoping for lower mortgage rates?

Central banks are saying the era of low rates are over & you might agree if you knew how we got there.

Let's talk about the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, your mortgage rate, and China. Seriously.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ First off, it's important to remember interest rates are relative to inflation.

Inflation is different in every country but one currency influences them all—the global reserve, aka the 🇺🇸 dollar.

The global reserve is extremely important for conducting trade.
3/ To avoid being paid with worthless money, when two countries conduct trade they use the global reserve.

As a result, global commodities are generally priced in USD, such as oil, steel, and lumber.

Ex: Oil prices can be flat but weaker $CAD leads to higher prices in 🇨🇦.
Read 15 tweets

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