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Daniel W. Drezner Profile picture
@dandrezner
Sep 19, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
I’ve seen a lot of speculation on this here website that the SCOTUS vacancy benefits Trump to some degree. I’d hypothesize that this premise is spectacularly wrong. The GOP base was already mobilized about the courts. Ginsburg’s passing mobilizes Dems to a much greater degree.
P.S.:
P.P.S:
And... scene! politico.com/news/2020/09/2… Image

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More from @dandrezner

Daniel W. Drezner Profile picture
Oct 25, 2022
Having read the letter my hot take is that it’s neither the outrage that mainstream supporters of Ukraine believe nor is it the out-of-the-box thinking that progressives believe. It’s a giant nothingburger.
Seriously, if this is the criteria for diplomacy to work then by all means go ahead and try. There’s no bargain that will be struck that meets those conditions. progressives.house.gov/_cache/files/5…
Completely agree with Ben’s tweet. It’s all about the vibes and the timing is weird and tbh I kinda sorta suspect they don’t like tankies saying that only the Trumpist right is trying to seek peace.
Read 7 tweets
Daniel W. Drezner Profile picture
Sep 16, 2022
Damn. @kath_stoner ain’t messing around on this #APSA2022 panel on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Makes it clear at the outset that she thinks Mearsheimer’s arguments about the causes of the war are horses**t.

P.S.: Mearsheimer is also on this panel.
Mearsheimer, in his response, claims that Putin’s long July 2021 essay on Ukraine provides zero evidence that Putin wanted/intended to absorb Ukraine into Russia.
The next speaker @darelasn spends the first five minutes of his presentation pointing out the myriad ways that Russia wanted to absorb Ukraine and has wanted to do so for more than a century, falsifying Mearsheimer’s claims.
Read 8 tweets
Daniel W. Drezner Profile picture
Aug 8, 2022
So two thoughts:
1) As Jeffrey says, holy shit;
2) I see no one told Trump about Operation Valkyrie.
Semi-seriously, this anecdote should obliterate Trump’s support in the crucial “Dads who are into World War II” bloc.
JFC. newyorker.com/magazine/2022/…
Read 4 tweets
Daniel W. Drezner Profile picture
Apr 19, 2022
Oh, honey, bless your heart... nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/…
"Trump had privately indicated that he would seek to withdraw from NATO and to blow up the U.S. alliance with South Korea, should he win reelection." washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
"'In a second Trump term, I think he may well have withdrawn from NATO,' Bolton said. 'And I think [Russian President Vladimir] Putin was waiting for that.'" washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…
Read 4 tweets
Daniel W. Drezner Profile picture
Mar 23, 2022
If this estimate is correct it’s a stunning figure after just a month of conflict. But I have some questions for security tweeps… 1/5 wsj.com/livecoverage/r…
First, “up to” is doing a LOT of work. If I understand their methodology, the number could also be as little as 21,000 — still, pretty high, but nearly half the maximum estimate. 2/5 Image
Second, how reliable is the “3*KIA = WIA/MIA” rule of thumb? I’ve seen it tossed around a lot. Are there reasons to believe it might not apply to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Daniel W. Drezner Profile picture
Jan 23, 2022
This Bills-Chiefs game is gonna be a blowout isn’t it. You can’t possibly have all four division games be excellent, right?
Okay the first half of Bills-Chiefs was outstanding but there’s no way the second half can match the other three games this weekend, right?
Okay, fine, after the third quarter this game is still a nail-biter. But no way the final 15 minutes will be exciting, right?
Read 6 tweets

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