Shravan Venkataraman Profile picture
Sep 19, 2020 16 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Learn to listen to the markets and do not impose your own will upon them.

- Linda Raschke.
Every successful trading strategy has the same essential starting point: minimizing risk first, looking to maximize gains only after risk has been defined and controlled.
It is important to initially trade a new concept or strategy on paper. Only by seeing a pattern over and over again will you truly feel comfortable with it. You must believe in its ability to repeat itself.
If a pattern does not make sense to you, don't trade it. If you don't have a 100 percent belief in it, you will not be able to overcome losing streaks.
All you need is one pattern to make a living! Learn first to specialize in doing one thing well.
Your biggest enemy in trading is going to be a directional bias, an opinion about market direction ... whether yours, a broker's or a friend's. Shut it out! Learn to concentrate on the "right-hand side" of the chart-in other words, on the pattern at hand.
All it takes is getting sloppy once, or experiencing the "frozen rabbit syndrome" in a bad trade, to undo the efforts of the previous 20 trades. Placing initial protective stops must become a habit that is never broken.
In trading, you should take advantage of extremes in price action, high volume, and liquidity. When you learn to seek out emotional extremes in the marketplace, you naturally become good at finding good setups to trade.
Stay in one time frame! Yes, it is important to be aware of the big picture, but it should not affect where you get into or out of a trade or how you manage it. Don't turn short-term scalps into "big picture" trades.
When in doubt, get out! If the market goes dull and quiet after you enter a trade and makes no progress in the direction of your entry, do not wait until your stop is hit. Just get out! Seek a more active market or better trading opportunity.
Don't trade in quiet, dull markets. Dow, Livermore, Rhea, Taylor, Gann-all the greats say this over and over. There must be activity and liquidity in order to trade profitably.
If the market offers you a windfall profit on a trade, lock it in! (Windfall means a much bigger profit than anticipated.) Take profits on half or all of the position. Trail an extremely tight stop on any balance!
Important-if the market starts to move parabolically or has a range expansion move, take profits on the entire position. This is very likely climax!
A range-expansion move is a very large trading bar caused by the last of the market's participants (the emotional latecomers) dog piling into the market. When this last group of traders has entered, there is nobody. left to come in to continue to drive prices up or down.
'When the ducks quack, feed them." In other words, when everybody wants something, that's probably the perfect spot to sell it to them. The price has already been bid way up. Emotions drive the markets to extremes, and these extremes are the ideal spot to exit our trades.
If there's a trend following strategy with a very low win rate (say 27-35%), meaning a lot of false breakouts, playing those false breakouts would yield a much higher win rate, while protecting yourself with tight stops during actual breakouts. Mean reversion idea in there.

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More from @theBuoyantMan

Mar 16, 2023
One of the major risks in the SIP and buying index funds philosophy:

There can be 2-3 decades of net zero or negative returns, but somehow nobody even cares about that.
I am not saying we shouldn't have SIPs or purchase mutual funds.

But accepting the programming these MF companies and portfolio advisers are preaching (allocate to equity % acc to your age).
Given the restrictions around foreign investments, we have a significant home country risk.

Everyone believes India is a growing nation and stocks and index will go up only over next 1-2 decades.

No one stops to think about what if they are wrong.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 11, 2023
I came to Jaipur for work. I didn't resist having to learn Hindi.

If Marwari was spoken by everyone, I'd have learnt Marwari.

If it was another state, another language, I'd put in effort.

I won't be entitled saying "i am giving you business, you speak Tamil".
For my line of work, there are very few places I can work in - Mumbai, Gurgaon, etc.

Call it luck, I got my job for my line of work in Jaipur only.
If I wanted to be a Software Developer, I'd probably have chosen to be in Chennai or worst case go to Bangalore.

(I don't like Bangalore btw, worst city to live in with the traffic and poor city/roads/airport planning)
Read 10 tweets
Feb 18, 2023
One major thing I have come to realise over the last couple of years:

Those who promote a single asset-class or single instrument *fully* systematic trading are scamming you or misleading you into thinking it will work over the long term if you stick to the system.
This is more applicable to those breakout style systems that intend to do trend following.

By nature, trend following is a way to capture the right tail.

If you look at trend following CTA portfolio over last few decades, you'd see that equity isn't a major part.
They allocate to equity/indices only as a form of diversification.

The reason single asset/instrument trend following doesn't work for very long is a factor of efficiency.
Read 35 tweets
Feb 5, 2023
This is going to be a full review thread on the OBAGE DT-31 model home theater tower speakers.

Been using it for a week, and "Blown Away" is an understatement.

I checked sounds through different modes (3.5mm jack, optical, bluetooth, etc.)
Main purpose I bought is for use through optical cable from TV.

But now that I have seen and heard this speaker - I'd say the quality over bluetooth connection is mostly in-discernible to a normal listener from the optical output.
These were the settings I tested with. Full bass and treble, 55% volume roughly.
Read 15 tweets
Jan 29, 2023
Was looking for home theater speakers - that would play multiple roles - for TV, for bluetooth music listening, and for movies (on different devices.

Had shortlisted a few, and a friend suggested to check out this brand *OBAGE*.

Got this DT-31 model. Two words - Blown Away.
I'll post an extended review with proper videos after using it for a week or two.

But the first day trial - movies, dialog, music - classical, vocal driven, edm, etc., blew me away.

At only 50-60% the sound fills a 20x20 room.

Took a few videos for my friends on my phone.
And, the speaker is not yet set up to the configuration suggested by the company (woofers facing each other, bass and treble at full, etc.,).

So the quality of audio you listen in these videos aren't even 30% of the actual potential of the speakers.
Read 12 tweets

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