I've heard some analysts argue a SCOTUS fight will help Trump by shifting "what 2020 will be about" from his mismanagement of COVID to a more straightforward partisan cage match.
That could happen, but I've always seen some big risks for Trump in a pre-election SCOTUS fight...
Namely, the potential for the Roe v. Wade/abortion issue to tear Trump's coalition apart.
Much of his 2016 support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked his rhetoric on immigration/trade, but are *pro-choice* - especially secular, blue-collar women.
This morning, I dove into 2016 CCES data (50,000+ person national survey).
Only 15% of Clinton's voters at least leaned pro-life and 11% held mixed views (74% at least leaned pro-choice).
But 22% of Trump's voters at least leaned pro-choice and another 13% held mixed views.
Although Trump downplayed abortion in 2016, voters w/ mostly pro-choice attitudes made up more than a fifth of his support in plenty of battleground states:
25% in Iowa
24% in Florida
24% in Pennsylvania
24% in Michigan
21% in Arizona
20% in Wisconsin
20% in Ohio
For decades, many of these blue-collar, pro-choice Trump voters had voted for Democrats because they saw Republicans as the party of "Bible thumpers" who moralized against abortion & gay marriage.
Then Trump came along, and they didn't mind him as much.
Now, there may actually be an opportunity for Dems to win back many of these voters by tying Trump to the "DC swamp:" Mitch McConnell and Rs who want to "end Roe v. Wade, cut more taxes for billionaires" etc.
In fact, Biden is *already* winning many of these blue-collar voters.
The under-utilized Dem message Rs should be most scared of probably goes something like this:
"In 2016, Trump promised to drain the swamp. Instead, he became the swamp: he let Mitch McConnell and stock-dumping, ultra-far right GOP senators write his entire domestic agenda."
After all, the Obama-Trump voters Biden needs to win back may have been yearning for a political "outsider" in '16 but are still:
1) extremely against tax cuts for wealthy Americans 2) decidedly against repealing the ACA 3) substantially pro-choice
Btw, I'm not sure groups like @ProjectLincoln, whose ads mostly feature anti-Trump messaging that amounts to porn for base Dems & NeverTrump Rs, have demonstrated they understand this type of swing voter yet.
Bottom line: the millions of Obama-Trump voters who will decide the 2020 election are *not* persuaded by attacks on Trump as divisive, bad person.
But they *do* despise McConnell and “DC swamp/establishment” Rs.
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How is it Dems are cleaning up in special elections/referendums if their national poll numbers are so bad? Because in the Trump era, Dems are excelling w/ the most civic-minded, highly-engaged voters.
Their biggest weakness? Peripheral voters who only show up in presidentials.
A big reason Dems beat pundit/historical expectations in the midterms? Only 112M people voted, including a disproportionate turnout among voters angry at Dobbs/abortion bans (many of them young/female).
But there will be ~160M voters in 2024. So who are those extra 48M voters?
They skew young, unaffiliated, nonwhite and non-college. They’re also more likely to base their choice on a simplistic evaluation of whether the economy was better under Trump or Biden.
On this question - and on immigration/age concerns - Biden is routinely getting clobbered.
Fact: of the 301 new House districts that have now been adopted, just 17 (5.6%) went for Biden or Trump by five points or less, down from 39 of 301 (13.0%) districts in the same states currently.
Back in 2012, after the last redistricting round, 66/435 districts went for Obama or McCain by five points or less. By 2020, only 51/435 districts went for Biden or Trump by five points or less - in other words, voter self-sorting explains a lot of the competitive decline.
But the 2022 redistricting cycle is rapidly compounding the decline. There may only be 30-35 seats in that range by the time all is said and done.
So the House's pro-GOP bias may be reduced or eliminated, but the House is also on pace to be more anti-competitive than ever.
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.*
*There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in:
- FL, where Rs are debating how aggressive to be
- NC/OH, where courts may order big changes to GOP maps
- PA, where the state Sup Ct will select a map
- AL/LA/SC, where SCOTUS could decide on additional Black opportunity seats
*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November.
NEW: Dem leaders in Albany are set to release maps in the next 72 hours, but there's still tension between Marc Elias/Sean Patrick Maloney - who are pushing for a hyper-aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander - and Upstate Dem incumbents who'd like more minor changes to their districts.
At issue: it's theoretically possible to draw a 23D-3R gerrymander w/ 23 double-digit Biden seats (example, left). But it would require Dem Reps. Paul Tonko #NY20, Joe Morelle #NY25 and Brian Higgins #NY26 to give up some existing blue turf (current map, right).
There's talk NY Dems might instead propose a milder 22D-4R gerrymander that leaves Tonko, Morelle and Higgins districts intact but still shores up #NY18 Maloney & #NY19 Delgado (rough sketch below).
In this scenario, #NY22 Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) could be spared.
BREAKING: national Dems are using a "communities of interest" argument to urge their Albany counterparts to adopt an aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander that could wipe out five of NY's eight GOP seats. nyirc.gov/storage/commen…
Highlights of the 23D-3R plan recommended by commenter "Sean Patrick:"
- Staten Island #NY11 drawn in w/ Lower Manhattan
- New maj-min #NY02 on Long Island
- #NY27 Jacobs (R) merged w/ #NY23 Reed (R)
- #NY22 Tenney (R) put in a D-leaning seat
- #NY03 crosses Long Island Sound
More highlights of the Maloney plan submitted via public comment to NY's redistricting site:
- #NY16 Bowman (D) goes from Bronx to rural Dutchess
- #NY17 Jones (D) goes to the Catskills
- #NY19 Delgado (D) goes to Ithaca/Binghamton
- #NY25 Morelle (D) picks up Buffalo suburbs