Prof. Madhav Nalapat Profile picture
Sep 19, 2020 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
❝Those in the US and India who seek to “prevent war” seem to be unaware that the conflict has already started, and will end only with the defeat of one side over the other.❞

Xi gambles on Mission Meltdown in U.S. & India i.mdnalapat.com/tsg200920 Image
For Xi, as for his idol Mao Zedong, what counts is raw power and its exercise. He is clearly a believer in the adage that if an opponent is in a weaker position, it is irrelevant where that person’s heart and mind is, for he will be forced into doing what is wanted of him.
Even the “friendly face” of the PRC, Wang Yi, is voluble during conversations that his country is 100% right in whatever its leadership says or does, & so discussions need to centre around the sole point of how quickly & smoothly the other side acknowledges such an obvious fact.
The removal of the two-term limit by PRC President Xi Jinping has been taken as an indication that the CCP General Secretary would like to remain in office until the close of his life. However, the fact is different... .
India and the US are the two countries which figure prominently in the calculations of the team that has been gathered around Xi, individuals seen as the “best and the brightest” that the CCP has to offer.
An intensive effort is under way within the US to map for the CCP leadership the faultlines in US society and how they are developing. Or can be developed, a task in which China’s key ally Russia has been assigned to play the lead role on behalf of the common interests of 🇷🇺 🇨🇳.
The reality is that both (Putin & Xi) wish to see the end of US primacy, ensure a fissured EU, and a weak congeries of South Asian and Southeast Asian states.
A Washington-Delhi pairing as close as the Moscow-Beijing partnership would present an immense obstacle to the global designs of the Sino-Russian alliance, and extraordinary effort is being made by both capitals to ensure that this not take place.
Just as the US is regarded as being close to getting tipped into a societal war on a scale that will dwarf the unrest of the 1960s whoever wins on 3 November, India is calculated as being potentially vulnerable to a similar meltdown of public confidence and order.
More than in the South China Sea or across the Taiwan Straits, it is the Himalayan massif that is likely to witness a kinetic effort by the PLA. This would be designed to shatter the image and confidence of India.
Should the General Secretary’s Himalayan adventure end in catastrophe for the PLA, the impact on his leadership would be immediate.

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More from @MD_Nalapat

Jul 5, 2022
"The South China Sea is fast becoming a Chinese lake, given the density of PLAAF and PLAN military bases created within its waters."
In the case of “Mao’s heir” Xi, although almost all such activity remains hidden from the outside world, criticism of the functioning of the Office of the General Secretary (OGS) has been growing inside the higher ranks of the CCP.
More than the party secretariat or the civilian side of the central government, it is the military that has the most influence in the thinking of the present 🇨🇳 CCP General Secretary.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 2, 2021
It was apparent from 1959 onwards that it would only be a question of “when” and not “whether” the Peoples Liberation Army 🇨🇳 would be unleashed on its counterpart in India 🇮🇳.
If 1962 was the year in which Mao had decided to “teach India a lesson”, it made sense to ensure that a reliable and friendly partner, the Burmese military, took charge in Rangoon from a civilian government that was more independent of Beijing.
The 2021 military coup in Myanmar has to be looked at in the context of the very possible preparations that are ongoing within the PRC military for a large-scale armed showdown on the border with India aimed at securing control of large chunks of our territory... .
Read 8 tweets
Jan 3, 2021
The US wanted to assist Tibetan resistance movements through supplies of weapons, but could not do so because Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru refused to permit such items from being transported through India.
It was believed by Nehru that the blank cheque he handed over to Chairman Mao on Tibet in 1950 would be repaid by the latter’s formal acceptance of the McMahon Line as the frontier between India and China.
Amazingly, the entry of the PLA into Aksai Chin was not even mentioned by the Indian side but neither was the implicit offer of Premier Zhou accepted that Aksai Chin would remain with the PRC but the line in the rest of the frontier would become the agreed boundary.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 7, 2020
The higher an individual has progressed within the CCP, the more has been his or her awareness of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union General Secretary who presided over the demise of the USSR. Not as someone to emulate, but as an example to avoid.
Unlike in the case of the US and the USSR, where almost all the concessions made went one way, from the USSR to the very country eager to witness its demise, the PRC has been at the receiving end of concessions from Washington that have boosted its technology and the economy.
Should incoming President Joseph R. Biden Jr revert to the China-friendly policies of the Clinton era, voter backlash against the Democratic Party would be severe.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 6, 2020
President Donald J. Trump has had more than a few successes during his term, and Benjamin Netanyahu behaved with gratitude and courtesy in thanking him for some of them, which included the welcome escape of Israel from the diplomatic quarantine of so many Arab states.
In the case of that often ignored democracy, Taiwan, Trump has done more to secure that country from a PLA takeover than any of his predecessors since Jimmy Carter initiated the pro-PRC tilt.
The problem with Trump is that he has had a lifelong obsession with the dollar, which the 45th US President clearly values above all else, save perhaps Ivanka, Melania and Barron.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 17, 2020
The Supreme Court of India deserves gratitude from those who believe in the values of freedom and democracy. That “jail is the exception and bail is the rule” has been repeated endless times, yet it appears to many in India that jail is the norm and bail the exception.
So far as the media is concerned, over the years dozens of journalists have been sent to jail in states across the country. Some have been silenced in a more permanent way.
In another field, numerous personnel connected to India’s nuclear and missile industries succumbed to “suicides”, “accidents” & “break-in murders” since the 1990s, when President Clinton declared a public as well as a covert war on both nuclear & missile activity in our country.
Read 9 tweets

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