David Fickling Profile picture
Sep 20, 2020 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
If Australia wants to subsidize its mining, farming and packaging sectors, maybe it should just do that, instead of spending bajillions on boondoggle gas infrastructure whose main function will be to give those sectors under-priced raw materials?
I like ammonia and olefins as much as the next person but there's a global market for this stuff, you don't need to build a government-funded fantasy domestic gas industry to get hold of it.
I realise we're all meant to pretend that building a couple of gas storage tanks at Wallumbilla will magically turn Australia into some South Korea-style heavy manufacturing hub.
But this really is all about ammonia and olefins, and there's not much in the way of jobs or money in that.
If you're wondering what ammonia and olefins are, that's a sign of the extraordinary fact-free poverty of the debate we've been having:

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More from @davidfickling

May 11
A thing people really do not understand about US companies fretting about their per-car EV losses stories is that this is almost entirely a spurious issue about the unique way US accountants treat certain types of R&D spending. 🧵

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
When you hear a Ford executive saying “we are losing $100k per EV” your bullshit detector should be flashing red hot.

An F-150 Lightning EV costs about $55k to buy. It does not cost anything like $155k to make.

It’s 98 kWh battery will be, at $140/kWh, a bit under $14k.
And battery prices are considerably below that right now. Ford should be getting it for $12k or less. A Chinese company will be paying below $10k.
Read 25 tweets
Mar 26
I've long been a huge fan of @michaelxpettis and agree with him about most aspects of China's economy, but I think there's good evidence that clean tech, at least, is seeing solid, operationally-financed, productivity-enhancing growth right now. 🧵

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
A pretty common argument you hear these days to justify trade restrictions on Chinese EVs, solar panels, and batteries is that the industries are only prospering because of unfair subsidies. I don't think that's supported by the data:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
The argument goes something like this: China is awash in easy money from state banks; its renewable manufacturers are undercutting overseas rivals; ergo, its comparative advantage isn’t scale, efficiencies or innovation, but the availability of cheap government cash.
Read 14 tweets
Aug 15, 2023
You may think you've heard recently that demand for crude oil is running at record levels — but we're still below a peak we hit five years ago.

A 🧵 to explain why:

#oott #climate
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Last September I made one of the scariest calls I've made as a columnist — a prediction that consumption of crude oil had already peaked, despite predictions that this was a decade or more in the future:

To have some accountability I went for a two-part wager:

1. that output of crude oil and condensates had already peaked;

2. that output of crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids had already peaked;

(we'll get to the terminology in a minute...)

Read 23 tweets
Jul 14, 2023
Let's talk polymetallic nodules!

A thread on something that's (depending on your taste) a looming environmental disaster, or a key to the energy transition.

(Spoiler: I think both arguments are wrong)

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
You may be inclined to ask, polymetallic whats?

Well, much of the ocean floor is strewn with these potato-sized pebbles, which appear to form through complex processes over millions of years and are rich in manganese and other useful base metals. Image
From time to time, people have thought about mining these nodules. The most famous case was an extraordinary Cold War caper in the 1970s, when Howard Hughes set up a fake nodule mining company as cover for a CIA operation to salvage a sunken Soviet nuclear submarine. Image
Read 29 tweets
Apr 4, 2023
OPEC+: "It's weird and troubling that the world isn't investing in more upstream oil production!"

Also OPEC+: *Doesn't invest in upstream oil*

Also also OPEC+: *Cuts output, adding to low-cost spare capacity that deters rivals from investing upstream*

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
I would like to suggest that the best explanation for this contradictory series of facts is that oil demand is in decline and every party is behaving rationally.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
If you think oil demand is in fact rising then the entire global oil industry, with ~$3 trillion of annual revenues and ~$500 billion of annual capex, has taken a collective decision to just leave trillions of money on the table for ~reasons~
Read 6 tweets
Mar 30, 2023
Today I want to tell a story about the con artists of cryptoland, and how they have a lot more in common with the founding fathers of modern capitalism that one might initially think (thread):

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
At this point it's pretty clear that cryptoland is in deep trouble. Sam Bankman-Fried can now add allegations of bribing Chinese officials to the string of accusations stemming from the collapse of crypto exchange FTX: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
His nemesis Changpeng Zhao is now facing a lawsuit against his rival Binance exchange from the CFTC: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 21 tweets

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