Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
Sep 20, 2020 12 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/ Notes from @rorysutherland episode at @InvestLikeBest

This episode was a reminder of Munger's latticework of mental models, and how much knowledge from other fields can actually be transferable to the world of investing.
2/ "you can double the conversion rate of a call center if you're asking people to choose between three options of subscription, and you simply add the sentence, "Most people choose B."

This reminded me of NZS capital's complexity investing framework.

static1.squarespace.com/static/5ca38f3…
3/ "Apple was the first to wonder about what it felt like while you were doing it. Which is a second-order consideration, which is actually much closer to being customer-centric than asking what functions you can perform for people."

$AAPL
4/ Interesting observations on $Uber. No doubt, it's a much better product than what we had before, but I have my fair share of doubt.

mbi-deepdives.com/deep-dive-on-u…
5/ "Is Silicon Valley too engineer heavy? In that it's created a culture which would rather solve a problem through engineering than through psychology because your status derives from that."
6/ Pretty interesting set of examples why better, faster, cheaper may not always be the "good or true" idea

Red Bull, Zoom, Starbucks, Amazon Prime, Dyson, Five Guys
7/ "...designing for the disabled is a particularly good use of designer's time."

Reminded me of Taleb's piece on "The Dictatorship of the Small Minority"

medium.com/incerto/the-mo…
8/ "...I would argue that a large part of marketing needs to be both experimental and probabilistic. We shouldn't turn it into this optimization game, efficiency optimization game."
9/ "There's a game theoretic reason to be irrational, which is most of your competitors find it very, very easy to copy the rational things you do. They find it very, very hard for often for cultural reasons to copy the irrational things you do."
10/ Why isn't there any Amazon Prime for hotel chains?
11/ "One of the great ideas you have is that to reach intelligent answers, you have to ask really dumb question."

Great explanation here to this counterintuitive statement.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

Sep 23
Just published my Deep Dive on $VEEV
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read the full Deep Dive here: mbi-deepdives.com/veev/
Some portfolio discussion

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Read 5 tweets
Aug 20
Notes from $TXN Capital Management Call today

"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels." Image
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive Image
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.

"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."Image
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Read 11 tweets
Aug 5
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"

While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.

SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
Read 24 tweets
Aug 5
Incredibly lucky to have bought these puts exactly a month ago. +130%.

Made several (but slight) changes in the portfolio today. More below.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.

sold ~1% $BRO to add to $CNSWF.

CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.



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Read 5 tweets
Jul 26
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.

$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON) Image
Looking closer between MMC and AON. Image
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.

In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):

mbi-deepdives.com/bro/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 26
Notes on $TXN 2Q'24 Call

After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle. Image
More commentary on China:

"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"Image
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)

"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."Image
Read 6 tweets

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