JohannesBorgen Profile picture
Sep 21, 2020 17 tweets 3 min read Read on X
It’s hard to keep up with the #FinCEN files, so here’s an attempt to summarize the main articles published in Europe and the US.
On HSBC we hear of a Ponzi scheme for 30m$ for which the bank filed a SAR, but there are allegations that HSBC should have stopped it earlier.
In Sweden, DI reports that there are 76 SARs, split between some of the usual suspects: SEB 41, SHB 6, Nordea 1 and the mighty Lansforsakringar (I’m pretty sure I misspelled that one)… 26. But all for very small volumes (a few SEKm max, some only for a few kSEK)
In Norway, DNB is linked with 1bn NOK of transactions but i'm struggling to find more info. We know they are involved in the Samherji fisheries scandal, so it could be that.
In Denmark, as far I can see it’s mostly old stories about the great Danske Estonia, with its 40000% ROE and totally legitimate business and 5462% market share and 15794% CAGR.
In the Netherlands, we can see some link between ING and the Deutsche mirror trades through ING Slaski. Again that’s a rather old story afaict (ING has already been fined for this.)
ABN and the Belgian banks seem to do ok - I can only see references to very small transactions for Belgian banks and nothing on ABN.
And now, dear followers, your favourite topic
#ItsAlwaysDeutsche.
And now, dear followers, your favorite topicart of the reporting. This is again an old story but there are a few new snippets worth mentioning.
What did we learn?
1) The fact that it should/could have been stopped earlier is new (but hardly unexpected.) The 100 alerts raised by internal system sound bad.
2) Also bad, the (alleged) meetings between BOFA & Achleitner. Escalating such a matter to the chairman is kind of Wow... The bofa guys must have been really spooked.
3) the dodgy audit of the Russian subsidiary is fantastic. The only missing bit is a **** ESG rating for the Moscow office and a fantastic staff retention scheme. It does sound like the (internal) auditors really enjoyed Moscow and its nightlife.
What’s also bad here is that the current head of Deutsche was the head of audit back then… even if not directly involved, it reflects poorly.
But tbh, the worse is probably that it was Bofa that had to file the SAR. I mean Bofa isn't exactly the red cross.
If even *another bank* thinks what you’re doing smells shit, and reports you to authorities, it can’t be good.
The files also mentions the correspondent banking stuff for DB, especially with Danske, but tbf all you needed to do was read the recent transaction with the DOJ to get the juicy details (or my thread on it.) So nothing new.
And to finish, I can’t see anything significant on the large French banks. Well done, guys, or am I missing something ?
If you see more, please do share, I’ll try to update this thread!
What did Twitter do with that tweet! It was supposed to read:

"#ItsAlwaysDeutsche.
And now, dear followers, your favourite topic.
The Deutsche Mirror trade is a big part of the global reporting. This is again an old story but there are a few new snippets worth mentioning."
Dan's right, I forgot to mention StanChart

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with JohannesBorgen

JohannesBorgen Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jeuasommenulle

Feb 20
Interesting note this morning from DB about ECB policy review and money market rates. Let me summarize it.

ECB has de facto moved from a corridor system to a floor system with unlimited MRO + QE.

But as QE etc unwind, there’s a big risk lurking. A thread
For those unfamiliar with the jargon, a corridor means that the market rate (EONIA) is stuck between two policy rates, the deposit facility rate (DLF) and the marginal lending rate (MLF.)

That’s what it looked like before 2008 & the GFC.

(Market rate is yellow) Image
After all hell broke loose in '08, the ECB flooded the market with money and this is what it looked like: market rates were stuck at ECB deposit rates because there was too much money in the system and it had to be deposited back at the ECB (ECB money is just doing round trips). Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 24, 2023
My 2 favorite docs are the Jap & Ger financial stability reports because they give a glimpse at the horror of small unlisted banks😁(don’t sue me, I’m just kidding).

What did we get from the new German one ?

Buckle up, as they say in 10,000$ a year doomsday newsletters.
You won’t believe it: CRE is in trouble – but tbh office is surprisingly resilient so far. Image
Ok, CRE is fun, but have you tried interest rates risk and bn of securities unrealized losses in the balances sheet?

Realised is 25.8bn so total is around 70bn€. Tbh this is also not that much compared to the US shitshow. Image
Read 14 tweets
Nov 20, 2023
With all the macro debates going on around rates, recession, CRE, etc, banks’ loan losses are obv key. They are what makes the diff between recession & depression imo

That’s why the EBA report on banks’ provisioning practices is key – Here are my main takeaways.
1) Stage 2 loans (i.e. deteriorating loans for which lifetime expected credit losses = ECL should be booked) are a total mess. There's no consistency in methodologies. Here are the main problems
Collective assessments are still lacking (but are compulsory under IFRS9) Image
Read 18 tweets
Oct 9, 2023
A few comments on the Metro Bank situation & capital rausing plan announced yesterday evening.

I'll start with a quick recap and then what I think it means for Metro and (more importantly) for the sector.
The deal has four components:
- Haircut of 40% on Tier 2 debt + extension of the 60% left, but voluntary, not bail-in
- Extension of MREL debt to 2029 (+4y) and new MREL issuance at 12%
- 150m new equity at 30p (IPO was at 2190p…)
- Planned asset sale of 3bn of resi mortgages
Now, what I think is important:

1. last minute rescue plan of MREL bondholders, shareholders are wiped out and T2 debt gets a mixed deal but the bonds were trading at 30%.

2. We might get retail s/h litigation / misselling claims
Read 14 tweets
Oct 6, 2023
IFRS & bank regs are almost killing bank M&A - something the Brits might regret in the next few days 😉 & the SSM might consider unintended consequence !

Here's why.
Let's take a simple bank with loans & deposits. Regulations (IRRBB) and common sense mean they can't massive interest rate riskj, so on top you add some rates derivatives to hedge.
Floating loans have an easy IR profile, mortgages are more complicated profile (fixed rate, prepayment risk). Deposits are much more complicated: sight deposits are not really floating not really fixed, so the hedging is complicated and requires modelling.

Back to M&A now
Read 8 tweets
Sep 26, 2023
The ECB just published an economic bulletin on banks’ distributions, and I’m still puzzled as to why the ECB is so obsessed with this and constantly fight payouts.

So a thread about bank dividends !
My commonsense view here is that the EA banking sector is trading at unhealthy P/B ratios & it’s both in the banks’ and supervisors’ interests to see them go up.

But it looks like the ECB disagrees. Image
Again, commonsense view is that the best protection against financial distress is to be able to raise capital when you need it... and you’re only able to do that if you have an equity story to sell to investors.

If you can’t even distribute your earnings, it’s a tough sell.
Read 14 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(