It’s hard to keep up with the #FinCEN files, so here’s an attempt to summarize the main articles published in Europe and the US.
On HSBC we hear of a Ponzi scheme for 30m$ for which the bank filed a SAR, but there are allegations that HSBC should have stopped it earlier.
In Sweden, DI reports that there are 76 SARs, split between some of the usual suspects: SEB 41, SHB 6, Nordea 1 and the mighty Lansforsakringar (I’m pretty sure I misspelled that one)… 26. But all for very small volumes (a few SEKm max, some only for a few kSEK)
In Norway, DNB is linked with 1bn NOK of transactions but i'm struggling to find more info. We know they are involved in the Samherji fisheries scandal, so it could be that.
In Denmark, as far I can see it’s mostly old stories about the great Danske Estonia, with its 40000% ROE and totally legitimate business and 5462% market share and 15794% CAGR.
In the Netherlands, we can see some link between ING and the Deutsche mirror trades through ING Slaski. Again that’s a rather old story afaict (ING has already been fined for this.)
ABN and the Belgian banks seem to do ok - I can only see references to very small transactions for Belgian banks and nothing on ABN.
And now, dear followers, your favourite topic #ItsAlwaysDeutsche.
And now, dear followers, your favorite topicart of the reporting. This is again an old story but there are a few new snippets worth mentioning.
What did we learn? 1) The fact that it should/could have been stopped earlier is new (but hardly unexpected.) The 100 alerts raised by internal system sound bad.
2) Also bad, the (alleged) meetings between BOFA & Achleitner. Escalating such a matter to the chairman is kind of Wow... The bofa guys must have been really spooked.
3) the dodgy audit of the Russian subsidiary is fantastic. The only missing bit is a **** ESG rating for the Moscow office and a fantastic staff retention scheme. It does sound like the (internal) auditors really enjoyed Moscow and its nightlife.
What’s also bad here is that the current head of Deutsche was the head of audit back then… even if not directly involved, it reflects poorly.
But tbh, the worse is probably that it was Bofa that had to file the SAR. I mean Bofa isn't exactly the red cross.
If even *another bank* thinks what you’re doing smells shit, and reports you to authorities, it can’t be good.
The files also mentions the correspondent banking stuff for DB, especially with Danske, but tbf all you needed to do was read the recent transaction with the DOJ to get the juicy details (or my thread on it.) So nothing new.
And to finish, I can’t see anything significant on the large French banks. Well done, guys, or am I missing something ?
If you see more, please do share, I’ll try to update this thread!
What did Twitter do with that tweet! It was supposed to read:
"#ItsAlwaysDeutsche.
And now, dear followers, your favourite topic.
The Deutsche Mirror trade is a big part of the global reporting. This is again an old story but there are a few new snippets worth mentioning."
Tomorrow is the end of the grace period for fentanyl-related tariffs (Canada Mexico), China ones r supposed to start on March 12. Time to look at some numbers. So far Trump has enacted 10% “fentanyl” tariffs on Chinese goods, enacted and cancelled 25% on Columbia and threatened :
Canada, Mexico (25% goods + 10% Canadian energy), China (+10% addtl), 25% steel & aluminium worldwide, “fees” for Chinese ships/freight operators, “reciprocal tariffs” (whatever that means) for all nations + 25% autos pharma & lumber, + unknown % on copper.
We’ll know more after the report on ‘America First Trade Policy’ on April 1st, especially on "reciprocal ones", but here are few thoughts from a great Autonomous report on this.
Some historical perspective: maybe raising tariffs in the early 1920 wasn’t a great idea?
You should watch the full unedited version of this unreal press conference All going as expected (Trump w/ his weird obsessions, Z trying to stay cool, Rubio wishing he was in bed) until it totally blows up bc Z can't help correcting Vance about diplomacy
The best summary of the twisted world we live in is how Trump ends the press conference:
"This is going to be great television"
You can't make it up
Also : the journalist who asked the suit question should really look at himself in the mirror tonight bc it clearly contributed to the unravelling of the meeting
This is pure gold, Greek edition.
How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps.
Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging?
Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea.
Thread.
It’s obviously the ICAP CRIF CQS, you idiot. Err, what?
Here’s the explanation, & it’s beautiful.
Under Basel/EU rules, banks using the standard approach (no internal ratings) have capital charges (RWA) based on external ratings which are then mapped on so-called “Credit Quality Steps” that give RWA using this table.
BNP has very good notes on the US elections and how to trade them. They are mostly focused on timing and the info you should focus on. Here's my summary
Before the elections
Apart from betting markets / polls, a source of info is mail-in ballot statistics.
Early voting doesn’t favor the Dems as much as 2020 (but Covid).
Before the elections
Some states - notably Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan North Carolina - start counting on Nov 5th. They are important states so could provide info.
Maybe you’ve seen the crazy price action on Close Brothers last Friday or heard about the Hopcraft appeal court ruling and its impact for UK banks.
What is it about?
I’ll try to explain why it’s important but not Armageddon.
This is all about getting financing when you buy a car, more precisely getting so-called “Point of sale” financing, i.e. the car dealer acts as broker for the actual bank or finance company providing the loan.
Back in 2021 the FCA banned a dubious practice: the broker’s fee was higher if the loan rate was higher, i.e. there was an incentive to propose a bad client deal. The Financial Ombudsman Service ruled (on pre-ban sales) with an indication of how redress should be calculated.