HSBC AT1 investors are not too happy about the risk of seeing the bank flagged as an "unreliable entity" by the Chinese authorities. Arguably, this move in AT1 is much more significant than the equity move (which happens in a sea of red anyway)
(& now, this isn't about #FinCEN)
& no*, sorry!
For those unfamiliar with the concept, what is it ?
It's a list Chinese authorities are said to be preparing which should stop companies on the list from engaging in import or export with china 1/2
Also from investing in China and which could also ban or restrict individuals from entering China.
Lots of "could" and "may" because the list and its impact are not final yet. But HSBC has been rumoured many times to be on it - mostly because of the Huwaei story
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This is an opportunity for a bit of bond market education😊
You’ll often read that Italy is wider than France now, or actually the opposite, with people posting various screenshots from different sources to make their point.
An old theme is coming back to haunt them: Basel 4!
Quick thread.
After almost 10y of discussion the package was finally enacted with full implementation in 2033.
Everyone felt, after many EBA reports & banks' disclosures, that impact would be mild.
But for first time banks are publishing capital ratios w/ the new rules and for DB it's ugly
How does it work? Banks are still allowed to use internal models, but the RWA (in 2030/2033) must be at least 72.5% of the standard (non internal models) RWA. ("output floors") and for DB that's a 33% increase!
CET1r would go from 13.8% to 10.35%! Ouch!
Why is the latest EC proposal on securitization a big deal for banks and how does it change the SRT market?
A slightly geeky thread - with some backround on the SRT market if you're not aware of this important market.
First what’s a SRT?
Following secular finance practice of reinventing the wheel but changing its name, the new trendy capital optimization transactions are “significant risk transfers”, but they’re just good old securitizations (invented in the 1860s 😊.)
(cash or synthetic)
The reason they’re now called SRT is a regulatory one.
The 2013 CRR (Art 244/245) allowed banks to get capital relief under some conditions, essentially that “significant risk” was transferred to someone else.
Bloomberg has some nice charts on the tariffs’ impacts.
The first one argues that tariffs on China are coming globally: too many countries will see a spike of imports from China & that's not sustainable.
The second shows GDP impacts, taking into account direct effects + indirect via trade partners (using a WTO macro model, so, you know...)
SE Asia impact is massive, -1% for EU, -1.3% Japan and -2.5% Korea. Mexico bonanza.
Some details on who’s going to stop which exports – very interesting split (especially if you try to model loan losses 😊). Overall 30% drop in US imports of goods (with retaliation modelled as 50% of US). China is -85%, Vietnam -75%, Taiwan, Japan, Korea Thailand -50%, EU -40%.