"I don't think there's a rupture in civilian-military relationships," says Joe Votel, retired CENTCOM commander, at @NewAmerica Future of War online panel. Current polarity have brought some underlying divisions to the forefront.
Asked about speaking out on public issues, retired Gen. Votel tells @peterbergencnn, "I thought I could play a role informing and educating" but others have to make their own calls about speaking out.
Flournoy, on defense//military leaders speaking out in politics: "I think it's a very, very individual choice. My view: we need to keep the military apolitical" but need climate that internal dissent is heard, valued. "When you close that off" it leaks into the public domain.
Votel, on troop withdrawals, says troops still needed in Afghanistan to back agreements and in Iraq for the mission. "It has to be driven by the mission"... "when we withdraw quickly, without a plan... we tend to run into problems"
Flournoy, on troop withdrawals says she agrees its possible to drawdown now in Iraq and transition. US wants the same in Afghanistan "but there we're really at a more delicate moment," ... "if the US were to withdraw unilaterally...could undercut" negotiations.
.@peterbergencnn asks Votel if Taliban can be trusted. Gives the most diplomatic answer possible, noting Taliban has attacked to take adv of AFgh gov before, but "They're at the table and they're now talking. This is a move in the right direction".
Last time I was in Afghanistan was with Votel, Jan 2018. As we ate lunch while he was in a mtg, Taliban detonated an ambulance-bomb on other side of base, killing 100 people. W armed escorts we were rushed to our helicopter to take off asap, to make a flight to Kandahar.
On China, Flournoy says bipartisan consensus of problems, not how Trump handles it. "Too tactical," focused on trade, and more recently on tech transfers... but no strategy. Since Nixon, always have had strategic dialogues, including "cooperative agenda" like pandemic, climate.
Flournoy - must compete w China without conflict. "That's a very nuanced approach that will require some pretty strategic thinking, and I think that's been lacking" ... also should be using allies more than unilateral approach.
Votel ranks the Israel-UAE-Bahrain peace deal as "somewhere between medium and really high," when asked to rank them. Cites the Israel-Jordan relationship that's stabilized things. Says more important: "How do we now use this" to rethink Iran, Palestinian peace plan?
Flournoy ranks Trump as commander in chief: "Frankly, I do not think he has the attributes necessary for the job," she answers @peterbergencnn. "One of his weaker areas of job performance."
Bergen: What are chances for peace agreements if Trump loses? Flournoy says bipartisan support. Votel: continuity is important, look at Cold War. "Strategic predictably is a benefit for us" ... says hopeful US stays the course now that GoIRA, Taliban are at the table.
On race in the higher ranks, Flournoy says the entire U.S. military career path from recruitment onward needs to be assessed, "soup to nuts" and sustained leadership focus on it. Gender, too she says.
Votel on diversity in ranks, supports it all, just notes it takes about 16 years to produce a battalion commander. So about the year 2030 you'll begin to see female battalion commanders.
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Proof Elon Musk is pushing his agenda? @NPR gets labeled “state-affiliated media” which is bogus. @starsandstripes, which is actually owned by the US government, is ignored.
Remember Trump installed his own minions to run actual US-affiliated media as pro-Trump propagandists theatlantic.com/international/…
JUST IN: Ash Carter, the 25th secretary of defense, died Monday night following a "sudden cardiac event," according to a statement from his family. He was 68.
This is heartbreaking news. I am fond of Secretary Carter and what he tried to achieve, bridging the civ-mil gap, and creating mutual understanding and respect between the worlds of technology and defense. As SecDef he keynoted @DefenseOne's inaugural Tech Summit.
I asked NORAD/Northern Command's top general if they have a plan to defend the homeland against the threat of high-speed cruise missiles. His answer was... complicated:
NORAD scans for ICBMs over the Pole but now "cruise missiles can come off submarines in the Atlantic or in the Pacific, they can come off container ships parked in port, they can come off land, they can come off of airplanes, they can come off multiple directions from all axes."
"The North Warning System, which was put into place in the 1980s, did its job very well for the Soviet and the Russian threat of bombers coming over the [North] Pole. But now, as you develop a cruise missile with stealth characteristics, the radar coverage is shrunk."
Russia's Lavrov was denied overflight into Serbia, reportedly. On Thurs, I asked Serbia's President Vucic how he can seek both Russian gas and EU entry: "Everybody is doing both. Sorry that I'm saying something and some don't want to hear it..." (53:00)
Vucic: Serbia's right-wing won more seats in recent parliamentary elections "exactly" because Serbia voted at the UNGA against Russia... "not because people in Serbia have something against Ukrainians. Not at all, we consider Ukrainians good friends. The issue was 1999..."
"We'll always be on the side of Ukrainian territorial integrity," Vucic said, in explaining Serbia's opposition to sanctions (76% oppose) or weapons against Russia, but several times in his appearance said that Serbs remember NATO bombing them in 1999.
Vickers, on Putin: "Is he the same person he was?"
Gates: "I don't think so"...he used to take risks but then stop. "I think the two years because of isolation, because of COVID, has had an impact on him" and others who have had contact say so, Macron, Schultz, etc.
Gates: Putin has "a sense of personal desitny" to revive the Russian empire, slavic empire... "I was stunned" at his recent speech slamming Lenin, even.
"Permanent stationing could be one solution", says US amb to NATO @Julie_C_Smith. So could rotational, though, she says, adding that Russia is in clear violation of the founding act, where NATO had agreed to not add permanent troops, so...
"We will continue doing everything of our power to ensure we can get them what they need quickly," says Amb. Smith.
(Read this as, despite Russia's threats against anyone aiding Ukraine, the US/NATO isn't slowing its arms and equipment aid.)
Our pal @nickschifrin asks a good question -- US officials talk about javelins and stingers, but won't talk about air-defenses under consideration. Why not? @Julie_C_Smith says there are simply sensitivities country-by-country.