COVID-19 herd immunity achieved in Brazilian Amazon city?
A medRxiv preprint (aka not peer-reviewed aka read with grain of salt) claims that the herd immunity threshold has been reached in Manaus after 66% of the population became infected. 👀👀👀medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The takeaway: This event could mean early predictions are right i.e., 60-70% of the population would need to be infected/vaccinated for herd immunity to be established/protect against the coronavirus.
Note: The infection-fatality rate for Manaus is 0.17% and 0.28%, likely due to the city's younger population (figure). In São Paulo, the IFR is 0.46% and 0.72%.
Tl;dr: Achieving herd immunity through natural infection alone would kill a lot of people medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
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Omicron now makes up 92% of sequenced cases in the New York and New Jersey region, based on the latest data from the CDC. That's up from the 13% reported last week.
1. I mentioned to @Steronious on @WNYC this weekend that we might eventually learn that omicron arrived here well before its first detection, based on evidence from overseas... wnyc.org/story/gov-hoch…
I am now wondering if this increase is partially due to increased efforts to find omicron cases. The variant is undoubtedly spreading 2-3x faster than delta...but damn, what a jump!
No matter what is ultimately revealed, we need more resources for genomic surveillance.
Indeed, the U.S. COVID outbreak could be transitioning into an endemic — where the coronavirus would continue to thrive in perpetuity, but vaccinated people would be largely spared the worst outcomes. gothamist.com/news/ny-breaks…
A COVID endemic would mean riding this rollercoaster of infection waves every few months or perhaps just every winter, and it could be brutal for unvaccinated people.
“Some consistent patterns have emerged: Two doses of an mRNA vaccine produce more antibodies, and more reliably, than an infection with the coronavirus does.”
“Only 85 percent to 90 percent of people who test positive for the virus and recover have detectable antibodies to begin with. The strength and durability of the response is variable.” nytimes.com/2021/10/12/hea…
NYC Officials Say School Windows Can Always Offer Solid Ventilation. Independent Scientists Disagree gothamist.com/news/nyc-offic…
And as a fun exercise in science media literacy, let's break down the Mayor's response...
Two weeks ago, Brian Lehrer asked @NYCMayor/@BilldeBlasio whether he had heard that the air purifiers @NYCSchools had purchased for every classroom in the city lacked HEPA filters, an industry standard.