This article by @Aviation_Intel absolutely *nails it* in diagnosing what's wrong with how DoD builds things & how to fix it. This is much bigger than NGAD.
He's talking about aircraft, but the same problems apply across DoD.
It's not about acquisition reform, or at least not as we normally think of it. This is about a radical transformation in how DoD builds complex systems, a transformation that is long overdue.
@Aviation_Intel:
"we are talking about an ecosystem of networked platforms that will share modular sensors and a common communications architecture here, not a new super fighter"
@Aviation_Intel:
"the old way of doing things is a losing proposition going forward ... By the time the system is fielded, it is already mismatched to the realities of the threats that exist and too much opportunity cost has been spent on it to deem it a worthy investment."
@Aviation_Intel:
"Also, betting everything on one or two fighter designs for air superiority for half a century or more has now become an almost laughable premise."
I could go on quoting it, but you should honestly just go read the article! This perfectly captures the shift DoD needs to make in order to continue to field relevant military capabilities in the decades to come: thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3…
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Large AI models like ChatGPT and GPT-4 are inherently dual use.
@OpenAI's GPT-4 system card walks through several possible misuse risks, including for hacking, disinformation, and proliferation of unconventional weapons (e.g., chem/bio). cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-s…
OpenAI assesses that GPT-4's cyber and chem/bio capabilities are limited today, but AI progress is discontinuous and large models frequently show emergent capabilities.
Dangerous capabilities are likely coming and we may not have much advance warning.
China is building a new model of tech-enabled authoritarianism at home.
The Chinese Communist Party has deployed 500 million surveillance cameras to monitor Chinese citizens.They increasingly use AI tools like facial and gait recognition.
China is exporting its model of digital authoritarianism abroad. At least 80 countries use Chinese surveillance and policing technology.
(Map data courtsey of @SheenaGreitens. Map by @CNASdc)