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Ryan Watkins Profile picture
@RyanWatkins_
Sep 22, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The last couple weeks in DeFi have been an absolute bloodbath.

But keep in mind bull markets never go up in a straight line.

In the 2017 ICO boom ETH pulled back 20%+ seven times before it peaked in January 2018.

So far in this bull market we’ve only experienced one.

1/
What's clear right now is that there are more sellers than buyers and DeFi’s summer casino could be coming to an end (it’s the start of Fall anyways?).

But let’s zoom out and look at DeFi’s summer in numbers.

messari.io/article/a-data…
The median DeFi asset is down more than 40% in the past 30 days.

Take some time to digest this table.

Below are a couple takeaways from the data.
1. After the 40% pullback over the past month the median DeFi asset is now down 3% over the past 90 days, underperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
2. Blue chip DeFi assets like YFI, LEND, SNX, and NXM are all still up big this summer even after the recent pullback, far outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum.
3. First generation DeFi assets such as MKR and REP, and newly launched / forked DeFi assets such as SWRV, CRV, and SUSHI, have suffered the most in the selloff and weighed down the DeFi sector.
Check out my latest piece where I take a quick by the numbers look at how far DeFi has come this summer and put the recent growth in perspective.

messari.io/article/a-data…

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More from @RyanWatkins_

Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Nov 12
Solana now rivals Ethereum across nearly every key metric.

Yet $SOL trades at just 33% the valuation of $ETH.

Our Solana Thesis Part II: The Data-Driven Case for $SOL.

1/ Image
In Q4’23 Syncracy released a Solana thesis arguing that SOL was severely mispriced at 13% of Ethereum’s valuation.

Today we explore how the thesis has progressed, unpack Solana’s growing network effects, and make the case for parity with ETH.

syncracy.io/writing/solana…Image
Solana’s growing ecosystem of assets, applications, businesses, and users is becoming a compounding superstructure, positioning Solana to be a secular winner of the cryptoeconomy.

This is becoming evident in the data which shows Solana rivaling Ethereum in value creation. Image
Read 10 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Oct 8
Applications on Ethereum and Solana are on the verge of flipping their underlying infrastructure in revenue.

What does this mean for the future of value capture in the cryptoeconomy? Image
Contrary to popular belief, the age of the applications is upon us.

There are now plenty of apps generating 8-9 figures in revenue.

Still, apps continue to trade at huge discounts to infrastructure, which on average trade at ~300x higher multiples.

syncracy.io/writing/applic…
Will infrastructure multiples compress over time and app multiples rise?

We at Syncracy believe that apps capturing a greater share of the global blockchain fee pool and outearning most infrastructure is likely an inflection point for the reckoning that’s to come. Image
Read 9 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Jun 19
The era of brain dead private → public token arbitrage is coming to an end.

We simply don’t need more useless infra + tokens while there’s clear secular winners emerging across the cryptoeconomy.

In time the market structure will shift to reflect this.

The frontier is liquid.
Venture strategies will still thrive, but returns will be harder won.

The dispersion of returns between the best and worst will likely increase from here.
Similarly early stage infrastructure investments could still perform well, but will likely require more selectiveness on the part of managers.

You can no longer buy random L1/L2s at 9 figure valuations and expect to dump on retail.

Perhaps applications are next up.
Read 5 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Apr 25
Over the past year Syncracy accumulated a large position in MKR.

We believe Maker could command a $40+ billion valuation this cycle given its vital role in financing Ethereum’s economy — a multi-billion dollar fee opportunity.

Our thesis on Maker in the Endgame Era.

1/ Image
Maker is the leading decentralized bank in the cryptoeconomy.

At ~2x 2025E revenue, we believe Maker is one of the best risk / reward opportunities today given its industry leading earnings, best-in-class unit economics, and growing market dominance. 

syncracy.io/writing/makerd…
Maker is a leviathan amongst the leaders, capturing nearly 40% of all DeFi profits on Ethereum.

Its competitive advantage is centered around its currency Dai —the most widely used decentralized stablecoin in the industry with its deep liquidity, integrations, and track record. Image
Read 12 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Apr 3
Memecoin mania is the closest thing we’ve seen to the 2017 ICO bubble.

Difference is no one is even pretending they’re launching or buying anything valuable — bar is as low as it’s ever been.

Memecoins are the purest expression of greed and entertainment crypto’s ever created.
Equally as interesting is how much mindshare memecoins command despite the sector still being incredibly small (and retail).

Most memecoins are micro / small caps, yet are reported on as if they’re actually indicative of what’s going on in the broader cryptoeconomy.
The most obvious winner of all this is SOL as it’s the base pair for the majority of memecoins retail is trading nowadays.

Just like how ETH was required to participate in ICOs, SOL today has the same flywheel.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Dec 7, 2023
In Q2 2023, Syncracy built a large position in SOL.

The opportunity Solana offers is rare – a truly differentiated technical architecture that has the potential to become foundational alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Our thesis on Solana and the future of the cryptoeconomy.

1/ Image
Blockchains have trade-offs.

Despite extreme power law dynamics in the smart contract platform market, this reality creates a large opportunity for Solana.

Solana can eat Ethereum's dominance through offering a highly differentiated integrated solution.

syncracy.io/writing/solana…
Trade-offs create path dependence.

We believe Solana’s integrated design offers a structurally simpler and more cost-efficient development environment compared to modular stacks, positioning Solana to win a larger share of the cryptoeconomy’s developer base in the coming years. Image
Read 8 tweets

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