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Ryan Watkins Profile picture
@RyanWatkins_
Sep 22, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The last couple weeks in DeFi have been an absolute bloodbath.

But keep in mind bull markets never go up in a straight line.

In the 2017 ICO boom ETH pulled back 20%+ seven times before it peaked in January 2018.

So far in this bull market we’ve only experienced one.

1/
What's clear right now is that there are more sellers than buyers and DeFi’s summer casino could be coming to an end (it’s the start of Fall anyways?).

But let’s zoom out and look at DeFi’s summer in numbers.

messari.io/article/a-data…
The median DeFi asset is down more than 40% in the past 30 days.

Take some time to digest this table.

Below are a couple takeaways from the data.
1. After the 40% pullback over the past month the median DeFi asset is now down 3% over the past 90 days, underperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
2. Blue chip DeFi assets like YFI, LEND, SNX, and NXM are all still up big this summer even after the recent pullback, far outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum.
3. First generation DeFi assets such as MKR and REP, and newly launched / forked DeFi assets such as SWRV, CRV, and SUSHI, have suffered the most in the selloff and weighed down the DeFi sector.
Check out my latest piece where I take a quick by the numbers look at how far DeFi has come this summer and put the recent growth in perspective.

messari.io/article/a-data…

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More from @RyanWatkins_

Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Jan 27
The most reliable thesis for compounding capital this cycle has been to own fast-growing projects that people actually use.

Everything else is a game of musical chairs, with the dominant narrative changing every couple months, and Burj Khalifa charts that rarely bounce back.

This supposed shift to fundamentals everyone is talking about isn’t coming… it’s already here, but it can only be observed over the course of many quarters and years in the assets that actually compound.
The fast-growing part is key here.

Plenty of value traps in the cryptoeconomy or projects whose fundamentals are solid but don’t support the valuations.

Often times the strongest fundamental names tap into speculative activity for growth which many write off as “not real”
Have fallen prey to some of these situations before as we all have.

Takes introspection to realize you’re being too prescriptive about what should be driving growth rather than accepting what is.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Jan 18
Regardless of whether the Trump coin is real or not, at $9 billion in 3 hours, it is already the largest onchain wealth creation event in the history crypto.
Goes without saying what this means for Solana if real
Will say though, I have mixed feelings about this.

Simultaneously a potential mass onboarding event and a huge risk that it makes the entire industry look like a scam.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Nov 12, 2024
Solana now rivals Ethereum across nearly every key metric.

Yet $SOL trades at just 33% the valuation of $ETH.

Our Solana Thesis Part II: The Data-Driven Case for $SOL.

1/ Image
In Q4’23 Syncracy released a Solana thesis arguing that SOL was severely mispriced at 13% of Ethereum’s valuation.

Today we explore how the thesis has progressed, unpack Solana’s growing network effects, and make the case for parity with ETH.

syncracy.io/writing/solana…Image
Solana’s growing ecosystem of assets, applications, businesses, and users is becoming a compounding superstructure, positioning Solana to be a secular winner of the cryptoeconomy.

This is becoming evident in the data which shows Solana rivaling Ethereum in value creation. Image
Read 10 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Oct 8, 2024
Applications on Ethereum and Solana are on the verge of flipping their underlying infrastructure in revenue.

What does this mean for the future of value capture in the cryptoeconomy? Image
Contrary to popular belief, the age of the applications is upon us.

There are now plenty of apps generating 8-9 figures in revenue.

Still, apps continue to trade at huge discounts to infrastructure, which on average trade at ~300x higher multiples.

syncracy.io/writing/applic…
Will infrastructure multiples compress over time and app multiples rise?

We at Syncracy believe that apps capturing a greater share of the global blockchain fee pool and outearning most infrastructure is likely an inflection point for the reckoning that’s to come. Image
Read 9 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Jun 19, 2024
The era of brain dead private → public token arbitrage is coming to an end.

We simply don’t need more useless infra + tokens while there’s clear secular winners emerging across the cryptoeconomy.

In time the market structure will shift to reflect this.

The frontier is liquid.
Venture strategies will still thrive, but returns will be harder won.

The dispersion of returns between the best and worst will likely increase from here.
Similarly early stage infrastructure investments could still perform well, but will likely require more selectiveness on the part of managers.

You can no longer buy random L1/L2s at 9 figure valuations and expect to dump on retail.

Perhaps applications are next up.
Read 5 tweets
Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Apr 25, 2024
Over the past year Syncracy accumulated a large position in MKR.

We believe Maker could command a $40+ billion valuation this cycle given its vital role in financing Ethereum’s economy — a multi-billion dollar fee opportunity.

Our thesis on Maker in the Endgame Era.

1/ Image
Maker is the leading decentralized bank in the cryptoeconomy.

At ~2x 2025E revenue, we believe Maker is one of the best risk / reward opportunities today given its industry leading earnings, best-in-class unit economics, and growing market dominance. 

syncracy.io/writing/makerd…
Maker is a leviathan amongst the leaders, capturing nearly 40% of all DeFi profits on Ethereum.

Its competitive advantage is centered around its currency Dai —the most widely used decentralized stablecoin in the industry with its deep liquidity, integrations, and track record. Image
Read 12 tweets

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