1/ It’s absolutely clear that we don’t have the ICU capacity we need in Ireland. This has been shown in multiple reports going back years.
2/ The numbers are less now than they were, and 20% of the current ICU beds in the public system remain closed. In the times of a pandemic, we have to ask why.
We have to also ask why in the last 7 months the capacity hasn’t been improved.
3/ Regardless of any opinion of pursuing a zero Covid island vs living with the virus, our stated objective from March was to flatten the curve and avoid overwhelming our public healthcare system
4/ And to ensure that doctors and nurses didn’t have to make horrendous decisions to choose which patient would get an ICU bed and ventilator if there was a shortage.
5/ We achieved this. We did well. Perhaps we forgot that Covid would return, that outbreaks would definitely recur, and need “flattening” once again.
6/ So we are following the course we anticipated from day one. The previous months have, I hope, been used by those in NPHET and government as time to work out the best strategy to manage the virus
7/ And to balance managing the virus with the need to maintain an economy and all the other healthcare needs.
8/ Already today there has been talk of needing more ICU beds for a resurgence of COVID. To paraphrase @SimonHarrisTD favourite term “let us be clear” - to use all our ICU beds for COVID means that an ICU bed is unavailable for every other health issue that would need that bed
9/ Open heart surgery, aneurysm repair, cancer surgeries, head trauma, road traffic accidents, overdoses, neurosurgery, sepsis etc.
10/ So I’ll come back to my concerns from recent months- if we end up again directing all our healthcare capacity to COVID, we will sadly lose many more patients to non-COVID illnesses.
11/ Studies from all over the world have already shown increases in deaths due to heart attacks that haven’t presented to hospital, increased suicides, self harm, delayed diagnosis of cancer through lack of screening services, domestic abuse
12/ Many of these tragic deaths will increase further during the pending recession.
13/ So let’s do our best to keep all the fires burning - all parts of healthcare must continue, work hard to avoid any more lockdowns, let’s try and open up businesses, and let’s try to just apply common sense to how we behave.
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2/ I think we had a good strategy that if vaccinated (and now indeed boosted), that we weren’t to be considered in need of self isolation as close contacts in the strictest sense and didn’t have to self isolate for days and days.
3/ This was a decision made when the belief was that the risk of catching covid between two vaccinated people was low. With Omicron, it appears to be a milder shorter illness, and many cases in that picked up in asymptomatic people.
1/ So I’m assuming my interpretation is correct that a household must all self isolate for a minimum of 5 days for those that are fully vaccinated and boosted, and 10 days for those that aren’t if they have a case of COVID at home.
2/ And while there will be cases where people are quite sick, the data currently suggest that Omicron is less severe, and positive cases are now frequently being picked up as —
1/ I’m worried about a cycle of events which may occur in the coming months. We have postponed reopening and the use of antigen testing until we “see how things unfold in other European countries regarding the delta variant” or while we “await more data”.
2/ Our leaders and nphet are worried about case numbers increasing due to delta variant. Their worry is that if case numbers increase then hospitalisations/ICU admissions will also surge and we end up back at square one with huge numbers of elective healthcare being cancelled.
1/ It is a fact that when we or any country begins to lift restrictions that case numbers will increase. Cases of all viruses will increase in fact.
2/ Just think of kids for the first week or two in school/crèche/day care. Lots of sniffles, temperatures, runny noses, etc. Often they bring these home to mum and dad too. When any groups are together indoors for periods of time then viruses will transmit.
1/ Last nights RTÉ broadcast on the delta variant was in my humble opinion misleading and fear inducing. Presenting the data without context or balance was wrong.
2/ The facts are that vaccination is protecting again delta variant and should also protect other new variants as they arise
1/ We have a choice to make. We have to stop saying all public health choices around COVID are choices between life and death. That defeats the argument.
2/ It polarises the discussion too much and people in fact make risk choices everyday (smoking, alcohol, diet, exercise, attending for routine health check ups). We balance risk everyday of our lives.