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Dr. Joel C. Miller Profile picture
@joel_c_miller
Sep 22, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
You know that feeling when it's 4am and you've just finished recording a lecture, but the recording still needs to be uploaded?
and then you realize that it's 10% too big to upload because the university's system has an arbitrary filesize limit?
5am.

all done.

I don't hear the birds yet, which means apparently I've been going to bed even later the last few nights.
never mind - there it is.

Night everyone.

8am meeting and 9 am meeting, here I come.

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More from @joel_c_miller

Dr. Joel C. Miller Profile picture
Jun 4, 2024
Reading the @nytimes article on COVID origins.

I'm not going to try to rebut the whole thing (I don't have relevant expertise on most of it), but let me address the final point made because it's close to my area of expertise. This is a bit technical, but please bear with me.
Here's the claim I want to address: Quote: "With today’s technology, scientists can detect how respiratory viruses — including SARS, MERS and the flu — circulate in animals while making repeated attempts to jump across species. Thankfully, these variants usually fail to transmit well after crossing over to a new species and tend to die off after a small number of infections. In contrast, virologists and other scientists agree that SARS‑CoV‑2 required little to no adaptation to spread rapidly in humans and other animals. The virus appears to have succeeded in causing a pandemic upon its only detected jump into humans."
This seems to be suggesting that if COVID-19 came directly from animals,
- there should have been many small outbreaks in humans,
- these dead-end outbreaks would trigger evolution resulting in better spread in humans,
- and we should have detected some of those outbreaks.
Read 13 tweets
Dr. Joel C. Miller Profile picture
Dec 16, 2021
So I've got a new preprint out. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… developing mathematical disease models that are appropriate for ethical analysis.

Most of the work done by Daniel Roberts. Help from @ID_ethics, George Heriot, Michael Selgelid, and Anja Slim 1/22
There's some beautiful mathematics in it, but I'll save that for a different thread. Here I'm going to focus on the results.

Our goal is to build a framework that lets us evaluate the ethics of policies for infectious disease policies that try to enforce compliance. 2/x
Let me first say a bit about why this work cannot be applied directly to COVID (not to say it doesn't give insights, but you need to be careful):

We've assumed SIR disease with a single wave. No variants. Importantly, we've assumed that the interventions remain constant. 3/
Read 23 tweets
Dr. Joel C. Miller Profile picture
Aug 27, 2021
A comment on whether the "Doherty Model" is appropriate if case counts are high when threshold of 70% or 80% is met:

[note - this is my personal opinion without consulting collaborators, should not be taken as official statement of any group I'm affiliated with]
These thresholds provide valuable guidance to policy makers and the public to help them develop plans, and to see that vaccine is the best tool to get us out of our current predicament.
Modelling always involves assumptions, and there is always a risk that an assumption is wrong in a way that materially affects the outcome.

In this case a key question has been raised: might the case count be so high that contact tracing and similar interventions can't keep up?
Read 8 tweets
Dr. Joel C. Miller Profile picture
Jun 9, 2021
Why do lockdowns become more important just before or in the midst of a vaccine rollout?

1/n
First, let me both dispel and validate one criticism of lockdowns: "you're just delaying the infections - they will happen later"

2/n
If lockdowns or any other intervention happen but at the same time some immunity builds up, then the epidemic peak will be lower and the total number infected will be smaller.

(seasonal effects may complicate this claim).

Flattening the curve does reduce total infections

3/n
Read 13 tweets
Dr. Joel C. Miller Profile picture
Mar 3, 2021
In the thread below, the claim is made that COVID-19 is only hypothetically worse than common cold and that the deaths are a result of lockdown and fear rather than COVID-19.

Let's see what data there is to test this...
But, let's clearly state the two hypotheses we'd like to compare and look for the available data and compare their predictions against the data

A) lockdown and fear is responsible for deaths
B) COVID-19 infection is responsible.
First let's look at the people who are dying:

They are dying of a specific set of symptoms that are consistent with respiratory infection, and they are testing positive for a specific virus.

Invariably rise in diagnoses is followed by a rise in deaths.
Read 16 tweets
Dr. Joel C. Miller Profile picture
Feb 6, 2021
Let's talk about how a scientist should make and then test a hypothesis.
When one makes a hypothesis, one should look for other, simpler hypotheses which could also explain the data.

In this case, perhaps one might think that the interventions done to control COVID-19 might also control influenza. Since flu has a lower R0, this might be enough.
Another thing a scientist should do is to look for other data that might refute or support the hypothesis.

In this case, perhaps one might look at countries that didn't have a large COVID-19 epidemic. For example Australia and New Zealand.
Read 11 tweets

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