Asymptomatic Deep-Dive

Read on, you’ll be surprised

This NYT article revealed that high Ct PCR was identifying mostly non-infectious positives (trace viral RNA)

The upside to supersensitive PCR is that it also tells us a lot about asymptomatics

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nytimes.com/2020/08/29/hea…
First, the prisons

Case 1) Marion Correctional Institution: 95% asymptomatic of 2,028+

Case 2) In 4 state prison systems - Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia: 96% asymptomatics of 3,277+

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reuters.com/article/us-hea…
3) Neuse Correctional Institution: 98% asymptomatic of 444+

This below article is misleading

Yes, some were presymptomatic at time of testing, but they didn’t significantly change result

DRC: “disputed any notion that DRC is “walking back” its claim”

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ohiocapitaljournal.com/2020/06/17/ohi…
Case 4: Tyson Foods, Arkansas: 95% asymptomatic of 481+

“Of the 3,748 team members tested, 481 tested positive for COVID-19, and 455 were asymptomatic.”

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katv.com/news/local/nea…
Case 5: Tyson Foods, Missouri: 85% asymptomatic of 291+

Note - Ct means cycle threshold or how many cycles of PCR you run to amplify RNA. Low 30’s is normal and picks up normal infections. 40 is high and can amplify trace amounts of RNA

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apnews.com/d3646ba688a79e…
Case 6: Tyson Food, North Carolina: Majority asymptomatic of 570+

“a majority of employees with coronavirus were asymptomatic and otherwise would not have been identified as having Covid-19 had they not been tested.”

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edition.cnn.com/2020/05/22/bus…
Case 7: Pacific Seafood, Oregon: 95% asymptomatic of 124+

“The company said 95 percent of those who tested positive did not report any symptoms. None have been hospitalized.”

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oregonlive.com/coronavirus/20…
Case 8: Meat Processing Plants: 9,000+ employees across the plants were mass tested -> 1/3 PCR+ -> 95% Asymptomatic

Source: Direct contact with top management

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Case 9: Triumph Foods, Missouri: 100% asymptomatic of 373+

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edition.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/…
Case 10: Karachi, Pakistan:

“Aga Khan University's researchers have discovered in a study that 95% of those who had tested positive for Covid-19 through blood tests, which register the presence of antibodies to fight the disease, were asymptomatic.”

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tribune.com.pk/story/2262980/1
Case 11: Bao, India: 95% asymptomatic

“Health Department statistics show that 95 per cent of the patients in Goa, who have tested positive for Covid-19 are asymptomatic”

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indiatvnews.com/news/india/95-…
Case 12: Maharashtra, India: 97% asymptomatic or mild

“Maharashtra recorded 150,658 active Covid-19 cases till Sunday afternoon, of which 97% are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.”

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hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/97…
These aren’t scientific studies so they have limitations

Also need to factor in ages, health, who is tested

But this official survery of care homes in the UK shows that:

“80.9% of residents who tested positive were asymptomatic (5,455 out of 6,747)”

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gov.uk/government/pub…
There are also studies/reports that show that asymptomatics are far lowerer

Yes, but there are two major confounders which come into play with this type of study

WAPO article:
washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08…
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Confounders:
1. AB testing misses many asymptomatics who serorevert quite fast
2. Ct count for PCR - the more cycles, the more likely you are to pick up trace RNA from low level imfections (asymps). Lower Ct would pick up far fewer

Methodology also important - who u testing?

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Some of these studies are quite old and when I first saw them I could not make sense of them

When enough stuff wasn’t making sense I then realized that maybe the testing is letting us down

AB studies greatly underestimate number of infected/recovered

Moment of awakening:

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So seroprevalence is mostly a fail, although if you notice in tweet 10 (Karachi), they found 95% asymps with AB testing - must have been recent infections

High cycle PCR on the other hand is able to amplify trace amounts of RNA and detect previous infections

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CDC still estimates asymptomatics at 35% because they are going by AB testing studies

Mass testing with high Ct PCR shows that they are much larger

So much larger that it changes the denominator for calculating IFR

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In SIR modeling used to predict epidemiological evolution, R stands for recovered

This type of model can help calculate herd immunity

But for some reason, everybody is using seroprevalence as the correct measure of recovered

I disagree -> an asymptomatic is recovered

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In fact, to me the high numbers of asymptomatics is how we know that pre-existing immunity is real

How else could we explain so many people brushing off infection with the “novel” coronavirus

For most people, it’s just another coronavirus...no big deal

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So ultimately, it’s all about trying to identify an accurate denominator

If we know how many have been infected, we can accurately calculate IFR

We can also do a better job at identifying herd immunity

People say NYC can’t be at herd immunity with only 20% seroprevalence

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Unlike some EU countries which are able to find new cases (although most are asymp), NY can’t

They are testing like crazy...can’t find cases

1% = false positive threshold

Maybe a stable 20% seroprevalence is indicative of a much higher number of recovered?

See this thread

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I think the data on asymptomatics sheds an important light on Covid-19
-Not nearly as deadly as thought
-Significant pre-existing immunity
-We are much closer to herd immunity than anybody thinks
-Lockdowns needlessly put vulnerables at risk (protect vulnerable only solution)

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If this deep dive was easy for you to understand, then have a look at this deep dive into estimating NYC’s real number of recovered

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That’s it

Sorry it was so long

If you learned something useful please RT first tweet in this thread

Keep Calm and Carry On

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More from @gummibear737

22 Jan
My favorite poem by Robert Frost

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

1
Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

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And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.

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22 Jan
Do not go gentle into that good night,

Old age should burn and rave at close of day;

Rage, rage against the dying of the light

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Though wise men at their end know dark is right,

Because their words had forked no lightning they

Do not go gentle into that good night

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Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,

Rage, rage against the dying of the light

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Read 7 tweets
13 Jan
Important to answer this so will do a small thread

1) I believe that voter fraud in quantities necessary to affect the election may have occured - I’ve studied all the evidence

2) Any conclusive evidence can only be obtained via an investigation

1
3) Trump mounted the worst legal challenge ever. He listened to the Kraken people. He should of been listening to @barnes_law and @Peoples_Pundit who understand election law/patterns

A focused campaign to push for greater scrutiny of absentee ballots was the was to ho

2
3) Hence there wasn’t any definitive evidence to use. My analysis of Pennsylvania made it to the “Life, Liberty & Levine” show! You can’t accuse me of not looking for the data

4) You might believe that you sure that fraud determined the outcome, but nobody knows for sure

3
Read 10 tweets
13 Jan
A little thread about Trump and the GOP moving forward

The right is currently divided into two factions:
-Traditional Republicans (TR)
-Trumpists

Trump lost because some TRs rejected him

The GA Senate race was lost because some Trumpists rejected the GOP

1
It's similar to 2016 when the Bernie bros didn't show up for Hillary

What did Dems do? They embraced progressivism and wokeness and got the leftists onboard

So the question is what does the GOP do about Trump?

2
Trump generated a lot of votes from groups that have never embraced the GOP

Trump was also incredibly popular among Republicans during his presidency

A lot of Traditional Republicans came to like Trump because he gave them policies they liked and stood up to the left

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Read 9 tweets
25 Dec 20
Let's have fun

To All My Followers:

Please accept with no obligation, implied or implicit, my best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low-stress, non-addictive, gender-neutral celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced within the most..

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...enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasion and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all. I also wish you...

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...a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year 2021, but not without due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped make...

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Read 5 tweets
5 Dec 20
Gonna share a story

As background I’ve always done deep dives on contentious issues out of my own curiosity

In early 2016, I had a talk with my dad who was furious about Obama and the media...

I patted him on the head and said relax, all is well

You’ll like this...read on

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I follow news all around the world - I figured dad was just radicalized by Fox News

He was always quoting Hannity to which I rolled my eyes

I didn’t care about politics in 2016

Then Trump decided to run and I thought “this will be fun”

So did everyone else!

2
Trump made statements that were so outrageous that they almost required that you look closer

Turns out he’s not crazy

Not sure if his policy recommendations are correct, but he’s not crazy

Maybe I should also look at what Dems are pitching...

Everything is racist...ORLY?

3
Read 5 tweets

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