Case 5: Tyson Foods, Missouri: 85% asymptomatic of 291+
Note - Ct means cycle threshold or how many cycles of PCR you run to amplify RNA. Low 30’s is normal and picks up normal infections. 40 is high and can amplify trace amounts of RNA
“Aga Khan University's researchers have discovered in a study that 95% of those who had tested positive for Covid-19 through blood tests, which register the presence of antibodies to fight the disease, were asymptomatic.”
Confounders: 1. AB testing misses many asymptomatics who serorevert quite fast 2. Ct count for PCR - the more cycles, the more likely you are to pick up trace RNA from low level imfections (asymps). Lower Ct would pick up far fewer
Methodology also important - who u testing?
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Some of these studies are quite old and when I first saw them I could not make sense of them
When enough stuff wasn’t making sense I then realized that maybe the testing is letting us down
AB studies greatly underestimate number of infected/recovered
So seroprevalence is mostly a fail, although if you notice in tweet 10 (Karachi), they found 95% asymps with AB testing - must have been recent infections
High cycle PCR on the other hand is able to amplify trace amounts of RNA and detect previous infections
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CDC still estimates asymptomatics at 35% because they are going by AB testing studies
Mass testing with high Ct PCR shows that they are much larger
So much larger that it changes the denominator for calculating IFR
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In SIR modeling used to predict epidemiological evolution, R stands for recovered
This type of model can help calculate herd immunity
But for some reason, everybody is using seroprevalence as the correct measure of recovered
I disagree -> an asymptomatic is recovered
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In fact, to me the high numbers of asymptomatics is how we know that pre-existing immunity is real
How else could we explain so many people brushing off infection with the “novel” coronavirus
For most people, it’s just another coronavirus...no big deal
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So ultimately, it’s all about trying to identify an accurate denominator
If we know how many have been infected, we can accurately calculate IFR
We can also do a better job at identifying herd immunity
People say NYC can’t be at herd immunity with only 20% seroprevalence
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Unlike some EU countries which are able to find new cases (although most are asymp), NY can’t
They are testing like crazy...can’t find cases
1% = false positive threshold
Maybe a stable 20% seroprevalence is indicative of a much higher number of recovered?
I think the data on asymptomatics sheds an important light on Covid-19
-Not nearly as deadly as thought
-Significant pre-existing immunity
-We are much closer to herd immunity than anybody thinks
-Lockdowns needlessly put vulnerables at risk (protect vulnerable only solution)
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If this deep dive was easy for you to understand, then have a look at this deep dive into estimating NYC’s real number of recovered
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
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Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,
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And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.
3) Trump mounted the worst legal challenge ever. He listened to the Kraken people. He should of been listening to @barnes_law and @Peoples_Pundit who understand election law/patterns
A focused campaign to push for greater scrutiny of absentee ballots was the was to ho
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3) Hence there wasn’t any definitive evidence to use. My analysis of Pennsylvania made it to the “Life, Liberty & Levine” show! You can’t accuse me of not looking for the data
4) You might believe that you sure that fraud determined the outcome, but nobody knows for sure
Please accept with no obligation, implied or implicit, my best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low-stress, non-addictive, gender-neutral celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced within the most..
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...enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasion and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all. I also wish you...
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...a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year 2021, but not without due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped make...