I have rudimentary understanding on tech in China. @packyM wrote a fascinating piece on $TCEHY which I came across today and wanted to leave my notes here.
It is a riveting read. So feel free to read the actual piece.
2/ Born in 1971, Pony Ma, the founder of $TCEHY, built a stock market analysis tool while interning at a leading tech company in China.
He sold it for 50k CNY i.e. 3x his annual salary at that time.
3/ After college, he worked for 5 years at a pager company. In 1998, he finally left the company to start Tencent.
It was a bumpy start. During pre-AWS era, server cost was skyrocketing and it was also sued by AOL for copyright issues.
4/ Ma even wanted to sell $TCEHY for $431k, but the highest offer he received was ~$86k.
For context, it's current market cap is ~$630 Bn.
Ma finally sold 40% of Tencent to early US-based Chinese venture investor IDG Capital and Yingke for $2.2 million.
5/ But as users crossed 100 mn without any revenue model, costs continued to creep up. Pretty soon, Tencent was back in the fund raising game.
Ma approached Sohu (Chinese Search company) and Yahoo China. They weren't interested.
Then something remarkable happened.
6/ "In 2001, the South African firm Naspers (literally) walked in the door and offered to invest at a $60 million valuation. So that Ma didn’t lose majority ownership, IDG sold 12.8% of its 20% and Yingke sold its entire stake for an 11x gain (not bad!), giving Naspers 32.8%...
7/ ...of the company for $19.68 million. Today, that investment is worth $205 billion, good for a 10,436x return!"
What!
$TCEHY finally IPO'ed in 2004 at $790 Mn valuation.
They Ma hired Martin Lau and Allen Zhang, two of the most instrumental figures behind Tencent's success.
8/ $TCEHY revenue
2005: $200 Mn
2010: $2.9 Bn
2005 to 2010: topline 15x
Then in 2011, WeChat happened in which Zhang was the mastermind.
9/ Time it took to hit 100 Mn users
$FB 5.5 years
$TWTR 4 years
WeChat 433 days
WeChat has 1.2 Bn users today.
10/ Lau, on the other hand, was busy acquiring games.
In 2011, he acquired 92.8% of Riot Games, creators of League of Legends for $400 mn.
In 2012, he bought 40% of Epic Games for $330 Mn.
11/ In the last decade, Lau and his team invested in more than 700 companies (no typo here), of which 160 of them are unicorns (as per a recent speech by Lau)
This includes familiar names such as
~5% of $TSLA
~35% of $SE
~18% of $JD
~17% of $PDD
~12% of $SNAP
12/ Of course, nobody knows all the companies $TCEHY owns. @packyM counted 103 companies.
"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels."
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.
"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"
While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.
SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.
CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.
$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON)
Looking closer between MMC and AON.
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.
In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):
After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle.
More commentary on China:
"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)
"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."