I have rudimentary understanding on tech in China. @packyM wrote a fascinating piece on $TCEHY which I came across today and wanted to leave my notes here.
It is a riveting read. So feel free to read the actual piece.
2/ Born in 1971, Pony Ma, the founder of $TCEHY, built a stock market analysis tool while interning at a leading tech company in China.
He sold it for 50k CNY i.e. 3x his annual salary at that time.
3/ After college, he worked for 5 years at a pager company. In 1998, he finally left the company to start Tencent.
It was a bumpy start. During pre-AWS era, server cost was skyrocketing and it was also sued by AOL for copyright issues.
4/ Ma even wanted to sell $TCEHY for $431k, but the highest offer he received was ~$86k.
For context, it's current market cap is ~$630 Bn.
Ma finally sold 40% of Tencent to early US-based Chinese venture investor IDG Capital and Yingke for $2.2 million.
5/ But as users crossed 100 mn without any revenue model, costs continued to creep up. Pretty soon, Tencent was back in the fund raising game.
Ma approached Sohu (Chinese Search company) and Yahoo China. They weren't interested.
Then something remarkable happened.
6/ "In 2001, the South African firm Naspers (literally) walked in the door and offered to invest at a $60 million valuation. So that Ma didn’t lose majority ownership, IDG sold 12.8% of its 20% and Yingke sold its entire stake for an 11x gain (not bad!), giving Naspers 32.8%...
7/ ...of the company for $19.68 million. Today, that investment is worth $205 billion, good for a 10,436x return!"
What!
$TCEHY finally IPO'ed in 2004 at $790 Mn valuation.
They Ma hired Martin Lau and Allen Zhang, two of the most instrumental figures behind Tencent's success.
8/ $TCEHY revenue
2005: $200 Mn
2010: $2.9 Bn
2005 to 2010: topline 15x
Then in 2011, WeChat happened in which Zhang was the mastermind.
9/ Time it took to hit 100 Mn users
$FB 5.5 years
$TWTR 4 years
WeChat 433 days
WeChat has 1.2 Bn users today.
10/ Lau, on the other hand, was busy acquiring games.
In 2011, he acquired 92.8% of Riot Games, creators of League of Legends for $400 mn.
In 2012, he bought 40% of Epic Games for $330 Mn.
11/ In the last decade, Lau and his team invested in more than 700 companies (no typo here), of which 160 of them are unicorns (as per a recent speech by Lau)
This includes familiar names such as
~5% of $TSLA
~35% of $SE
~18% of $JD
~17% of $PDD
~12% of $SNAP
12/ Of course, nobody knows all the companies $TCEHY owns. @packyM counted 103 companies.
another great interview of @danielgross and @natfriedman by @benthompson
Some notes from the interview:
on Japan:
"...We’ve been puzzled by why TSMC’s margins aren’t better for a little while. Why are they not taking more of the margin? And I think you just said it, they’ve been through so many rounds of boom and bust and they’ve outlived a lot of people who made the wrong moves."
...I find a really interesting mispriced thing in the world might be Japan, the entire country.
...if you’re trying to consolidate all your bets on semiconductors, Japan’s a pretty interesting geography, because I think they’re going to have all these components at the end of the day, in basically one single country.
...What I sort of wonder is in a world where, if AI really happens, maybe the 2030s are the decade of Japan, if they really are able to manufacture all of these components that have to get offshore from Taiwan for various reasons."
"Don't bet against Zuck"
On Gemini:
"...not only did they deliver a good model, but they delivered innovation along an axis, a couple orders of magnitude out from what anyone else had delivered so far
...it’s clear that Google has figured something out here, and they have a bit of a secret and we’ve all been looking for clues and poring over the literature to figure out what it is. But this is a real axis of differentiation."
Imagine opening Amazon’s earnings report 5 years from now and what do you think you might hope you paid more attention to? It’s very unlikely to be AWS topline growth rate this (or any) quarter.
If I have to guess, it’s the shipping+ fulfillment costs related developments that you would find more consequential 5 years from now.
I’ll explain why but let’s first take a look at some numbers quickly before going back to that discussion.
3P revenue grew by almost +20%, ads +25%, subscription mid-teen, and 1P MSD+.
AWS, which was the key focus for many, grew by ~12%. More on AWS later; let’s start more segment level discussion with Amazon, ex AWS.
Thread on $META follow-up call and some more thoughts on the quarter
Meta's DAU/MAU is at all-time high. Consumers vote with their time whereas "Intellectual Yet Idiot" class remains busy dissecting "surveillance capitalism"
chart h/t @east_cap
it seems the impact from the war so far has been minimal, and the wider 4Q revenue guide was likely just out of caution.
Meta had a terrific third quarter which makes the after-hours reaction (down ~3%) tad bit surprising, but perhaps understandable given the wider range of scenarios for advertising going forward.
Here are my highlights from tonight’s call.
Since 4Q’19, Meta added 880 Mn Daily Active Users/People (DAU/DAP) to its Family of Apps (FOA) properties.
Given Snap currently has 406 mn DAU, this means Meta added two “Snap” (and then some) in less than four years!!
DAU/MAU engagement looks steady across all regions. Overall DAU/MAU ratio has been inching up for the last seven consecutive quarters.
While Google Service segment did just fine, Google Cloud’s pace of deceleration in topline was a bit disappointing.
Here are my highlights from the call tonight.
After four consecutive quarters of single digit growth, Google returned to double digit growth this quarter.
Both Search and YouTube grew by double digit, but Google cloud’s topline growth came down from ~28% last quarter to 22.5% this quarter.
Google Services maintained mid-30s EBIT margin, but after posting QoQ margin expansion for the last 6 quarters, Google Cloud’s margin declined from 4.9% in 2Q’23 to 3.2% in 3Q’23.