It may enable the Govt to say that’s its measures (and/or the people’s efforts and sacrifices) have been a success... notwithstanding a large number of cases/deaths. 2/3
The Govt will be able to say that ‘the science’ said that things would be a lot worse than they are...
Raise fears, lower expectations, and claim credit for policy failures which are made to look like wins. 3/3
Probably not one for the heat of the election battle, but for me at least, something which goes to the core of the damage done by this Govt.
It is about the Govt's relationship with the set of institutions listed below. THREAD 1/8
I'm thinking of Parliament, the justice system, the Church, the armed forces, transport, schools, local government, the BBC, the NHS, social care systems, welfare systems, schools, universities, utility companies, the post office, the National Trust, libraries, etc 2/8
It's difficult to know just how to describe them.
Perhaps... what used to be 'the public realm'?
In any case, they now have a range of very different relationships with the 'state'. 3/8
After yesterday's intervention on net-zero, it's time for an assessment of Rishi Sunak.
TL;DR: he's doomed.🧵1/11
The core difficulty he faces, is the same core difficulty faced by all PMs since that fateful day in 2016.
He is having to navigate the gap - the chasm, rather - between the wishes and dreams of the Tory Right and reality/public opinion. 2/
Let's look at how his predecessors sought to navigate that chasm.
Liz Truss fully embraced the wishes and dreams of the Right, earned (and is still earning (ker-ching)) rave reviews from those groups... and lasted 45 days. Reality could not endure her. 3/
We know that the plans of governments are often derailed by 'events'... and we know that, in recent years, COVID and the war in Ukraine have been hugely significant and disruptive.
But I'm becoming increasingly annoyed by the Govt's use of 'events' as an excuse. 🧵1/6
The most recent example is the attempt to blame striking NHS staff for the failure of the Govt to achieve its NHS waiting list targets.
Well... if the Govt doesn't invest in staff, then staff shortages, and strikes, are a predictable response. 2/
Similarly, if the Govt doesn't invest in school buildings, it is likely to encounter problems (like RAAC) which will lead to school closures and disruption to education. 3/
So... in the wake of the Starmer Express interview (personal highlight that our European 'friends' are 'eating our lunch' and 'nicking our dinner money too' (no, me neither)), what are people expecting a Starmer Govt to do on the question of Europe? 1/6
I see a lot of comments to the effect that he is saying what (he thinks) needs to be said in order to win an election.
This tends to be accompanied by hope (for others, fear) that, if he wins, he will change tack, and reveal his true colours. 2/
It is true that nothing he says now will in any meaningful sense 'bind' him if he wins power. He will have a free hand.
People point out the consequences of being outside the EU, eg the extra checks required for people and goods to access the EU market.
And other people respond by saying it’s nothing to do with Brexit (and/or the EU’s fault). 1/6
Obviously all sorts of factors combine to produce effects on the economy.
Covid, the war in Ukraine, and govt ineptitude all play a role.
And so does Brexit. 2/6
Cooperating with other countries is the way to reduce trade frictions.
That’s why trade deals matter - you can negotiate for better access than you otherwise would have, returns agreements, participation in shared projects, etc etc. 3/6