Phil Syrpis Profile picture
Sep 23, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
A thought about the Patrick Vallance 50,000 cases per day projection (not prediction) slide.

Many have pointed to its flaws and to that fact that it may be intended to shake people out of their complacency. 1/3

See eg bbc.co.uk/news/health-54…
But it may have a different effect.

It may enable the Govt to say that’s its measures (and/or the people’s efforts and sacrifices) have been a success... notwithstanding a large number of cases/deaths. 2/3
The Govt will be able to say that ‘the science’ said that things would be a lot worse than they are...

Raise fears, lower expectations, and claim credit for policy failures which are made to look like wins. 3/3

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More from @syrpis

Sep 21, 2023
After yesterday's intervention on net-zero, it's time for an assessment of Rishi Sunak.

TL;DR: he's doomed.🧵1/11
The core difficulty he faces, is the same core difficulty faced by all PMs since that fateful day in 2016.

He is having to navigate the gap - the chasm, rather - between the wishes and dreams of the Tory Right and reality/public opinion. 2/
Let's look at how his predecessors sought to navigate that chasm.

Liz Truss fully embraced the wishes and dreams of the Right, earned (and is still earning (ker-ching)) rave reviews from those groups... and lasted 45 days. Reality could not endure her. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Sep 15, 2023
We know that the plans of governments are often derailed by 'events'... and we know that, in recent years, COVID and the war in Ukraine have been hugely significant and disruptive.

But I'm becoming increasingly annoyed by the Govt's use of 'events' as an excuse. 🧵1/6
The most recent example is the attempt to blame striking NHS staff for the failure of the Govt to achieve its NHS waiting list targets.

Well... if the Govt doesn't invest in staff, then staff shortages, and strikes, are a predictable response. 2/
Similarly, if the Govt doesn't invest in school buildings, it is likely to encounter problems (like RAAC) which will lead to school closures and disruption to education. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 27, 2023
If there’s a unifying theme, it’s that people on the Right in the ‘culture wars’ want to act, and do act, as they please.

They do not believe that any negative consequences should attach to their words and actions. 1/3
They fail to see that their words and actions may have negative consequences for others, which those others may, legitimately, guard against.

It’s an individualistic mindset. And one which ignores power dynamics in society. 2/3
Johnson and Farage are two exemplars of this thinking.

They are used to getting what they want. And their instinct is to crush those who stand in their way. 3/3
Read 5 tweets
May 31, 2023
So... in the wake of the Starmer Express interview (personal highlight that our European 'friends' are 'eating our lunch' and 'nicking our dinner money too' (no, me neither)), what are people expecting a Starmer Govt to do on the question of Europe? 1/6
I see a lot of comments to the effect that he is saying what (he thinks) needs to be said in order to win an election.

This tends to be accompanied by hope (for others, fear) that, if he wins, he will change tack, and reveal his true colours. 2/
It is true that nothing he says now will in any meaningful sense 'bind' him if he wins power. He will have a free hand.

BUT... 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 5, 2023
So much of the Brexit debate is the same.

People point out the consequences of being outside the EU, eg the extra checks required for people and goods to access the EU market.

And other people respond by saying it’s nothing to do with Brexit (and/or the EU’s fault). 1/6
Obviously all sorts of factors combine to produce effects on the economy.

Covid, the war in Ukraine, and govt ineptitude all play a role.

And so does Brexit. 2/6
Cooperating with other countries is the way to reduce trade frictions.

That’s why trade deals matter - you can negotiate for better access than you otherwise would have, returns agreements, participation in shared projects, etc etc. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Apr 1, 2023
Some thoughts on 'free speech' in the media, prompted by @DAaronovitch's excellent substack debut on the 'Sunak revival'. He starts by saying that he is 'free at last'. 🧵1/

davidaaronovitch.substack.com/p/some-are-whi…
David is not alone. We have seen a huge number of analysts and commentators casting off the shackles, unmuzzling themselves, and *finally* able to tell us what they really think. There's @maitlis, @lewis_goodall, @AndrewMarr9; a parade of Tory MPs on GB News; etc etc. 2/
One reaction is to dismiss this as a marketing gimmick, or a means to promote a new professional venture. But, I don't think there is any doubt that these commentators are doing things differently, and that they (and others, like me) see value in that. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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