My current take on the market is that the short term outlooks is quite shit. Macro is in a bunch of uncertainty and will remain so IMO until after the election. BTC/ETH still correlated to macro. DeFi projects and meme coins have run out of market buyers and cooldown is necessary
NFT seems like a forced narrative at best. The market is not ready to explode yet, first needs interoperable L2, better creators, and then mass appeal. Think about how hard it is to convince people that Bitcoin is provably scarce. Now good luck convincing them NFTs are scarce.
The actual catalysts that are coming are Phase 0 activation and Uniswap v3, Synthetix, and other projects rolling out support for interoperable L2s. Ethereum has been borderline unusable when you need to use it the most. People won't come until that's solved or at least relieved
Do I think we are heading into another two-year bear market? Absolutely not. Too much real useful stuff happening but the market got overheated, a lot of dumb toppy shit happening, money being printed out of nowhere, it was not sustainable. It will get better. But short term pain
For those that think I'm just riding the bear narrative, I'm not. I felt the same even before the market shit the bed. As always, I could be terribly wrong. I will be watching the next few weeks or more on the sidelines.
Some personal news after a much-needed Twitter hiatus. Today, I'm stepping into the CEO role at The Block. I’m also excited that @EvgenyGaevoy is joining the board, and together with the team, we'll work to strengthen our position following a challenging year.
Almost 5yrs ago, after months of @mdudas relentless recruiting, I joined The Block during the last bear market. Very few cared about crypto then. My goal was to build the best crypto research team and to establish The Block as a go-to firm helping institutions navigate crypto.
We were lean, scrappy, and really wanted to win. Everyone was doing whatever was needed and loved doing it. As the bull market came, we saw tremendous growth. After Tesla announced their BTC buys, the research business exploded as institutional interest increased exponentially.
The withdrawals from FTX seem really weird. Some of them actually go to Binance deposit addresses, and some of them appear to be fresh wallets which could indicate a consolidation. Some pretty large (100k+) processing as well
This Binance deposit wallet for example received $400k already. So could be preferential withdrawals etherscan.io/address/0xc2fa…
Etherscan barely working as literally everyone is watching and trying to play long/short FTT based on it LMAO
For the sake of transparency, I'm releasing my entire database of all wallets labeled as Alameda.
1. Total on-chain balance decreased by $230M in the last month (47% decrease)
2. Most of the funds were deposited to FTX and Genesis
Always important to caveat that on-chain data (on Ethereum only) will never provide a full picture of what's going on. There are a lot of off-chain holdings and it's also theoretically possible Alameda is just creating new wallets so it's not as easy to track by idiots like me
In the interest of transparency, I am releasing my database of all wallets that I believe belong to Celsius.
Currently, there is still roughly $1.5billion sitting on them.
Also please keep in mind that on-chain labeling is not an exact science. I could have made some mistakes
Please keep in mind that there could be mistakes. The list might not be complete and I could have possibly mislabeled some over the years of tracking them. If you want the full list in Excel format, please respond under this tweet and I will DM a link.
Really difficult to be in the “failed experiment but at least they tried” camp when there is still no info about hundreds of millions of BTC in the reserve. Twitter accounts look like they have been taken over by lawyers. CT really should put more pressure into getting info ASAP
In all the documents Terra used to raise, the reserves were collected specifically for defending the peg, not to serve as a treasury in case the peg failed. Really fucking absurd it’s been days and nothing.