JohannesBorgen Profile picture
Sep 23, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Gem from @muddywatersre latest report on #NNOX

"Question 3: How Can NNOX Claim All-In-One Imaging?
In an interview, Ran Poliakine asserted that “because it’s digital, it’s multispectral."

At what point do we go after banks for doing IPOs based on such bullshit!?
The lack of scientific culture is terrible and very costly. Banks involved in such deals should be forced to have genuine independent scientific experts.
The verification process should not only be a legal box ticking exercise using safe harbour rules to protect any absurd forecast; it should involve a scientific backup of any such claims.
If you tell a lawyer during the verification process "it works because it's multispectral" he will just look bewildered and say "err ok if you say so."
If you tell it to a mathematician or physicist, he'll just laugh and say "spare me the bullshit and explain me for real"

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More from @jeuasommenulle

May 23
Are you readyyyyy for LDI take 2?

Hear me out. Something’s brewing in the UK Gilt market.

#LettuceLiz Image
As the chart above shows, the cash swap spread has moved significantly & one-way recently.

Spread to swap is now 50bps.

But EU & UK insurers book their liabilities at NPV using swap curves, not UKT curves.

Still with me ?
This means that Gilts have become an excellent investment for life insurers.

The CSM for new business is going down (but still positive) but the charge for credit is now 0 so ROE increase significantly.

So far so good.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 8
Bloomberg has some nice charts on the tariffs’ impacts.

The first one argues that tariffs on China are coming globally: too many countries will see a spike of imports from China & that's not sustainable. Image
The second shows GDP impacts, taking into account direct effects + indirect via trade partners (using a WTO macro model, so, you know...)

SE Asia impact is massive, -1% for EU, -1.3% Japan and -2.5% Korea. Mexico bonanza. Image
Some details on who’s going to stop which exports – very interesting split (especially if you try to model loan losses 😊). Overall 30% drop in US imports of goods (with retaliation modelled as 50% of US). China is -85%, Vietnam -75%, Taiwan, Japan, Korea Thailand -50%, EU -40%. Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5
A week ago the Swiss gvt bravely decided to leave the decision on UBS capital requirement to Parliament.

I’m not sure that was such a great idea – as the recent proposal of the Swiss Social-Democratic Party shows.

If implemented, it would be a massive game changer. A thread.
First, a reminder: the SDP is not a fringe party, they’re #2 in the National council (41/200) & #3 in Council of States (9/46) & they’re also not particularly extreme (I mean, Swiss rarely are.)

But their proposals for UBS are a bit wild.

Let’s unpack.
1) A new leverage ratio surcharge of 3% for assets >300bn$ - in practice it means 40bn$ more capital required (out of approx 85bn of equity).

Ouch.

And having the biggest req on a non-risk adjusted basis is not exactly a very safe approach imho
Read 12 tweets
Mar 3
Tomorrow is the end of the grace period for fentanyl-related tariffs (Canada Mexico), China ones r supposed to start on March 12. Time to look at some numbers. So far Trump has enacted 10% “fentanyl” tariffs on Chinese goods, enacted and cancelled 25% on Columbia and threatened :
Canada, Mexico (25% goods + 10% Canadian energy), China (+10% addtl), 25% steel & aluminium worldwide, “fees” for Chinese ships/freight operators, “reciprocal tariffs” (whatever that means) for all nations + 25% autos pharma & lumber, + unknown % on copper.
We’ll know more after the report on ‘America First Trade Policy’ on April 1st, especially on "reciprocal ones", but here are few thoughts from a great Autonomous report on this.

Some historical perspective: maybe raising tariffs in the early 1920 wasn’t a great idea? Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 28
You should watch the full unedited version of this unreal press conference All going as expected (Trump w/ his weird obsessions, Z trying to stay cool, Rubio wishing he was in bed) until it totally blows up bc Z can't help correcting Vance about diplomacy

The best summary of the twisted world we live in is how Trump ends the press conference:

"This is going to be great television"

You can't make it up
Also : the journalist who asked the suit question should really look at himself in the mirror tonight bc it clearly contributed to the unravelling of the meeting
Read 4 tweets
Jan 10
This is pure gold, Greek edition.
How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps.
Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging?
Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea.
Thread. Image
It’s obviously the ICAP CRIF CQS, you idiot. Err, what?
Here’s the explanation, & it’s beautiful.
Under Basel/EU rules, banks using the standard approach (no internal ratings) have capital charges (RWA) based on external ratings which are then mapped on so-called “Credit Quality Steps” that give RWA using this table. Image
Read 10 tweets

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