Thread by @john_lichfield

Here is another French Covid update. There have been 6 days since my last thread. The trend remains steadily upwards in cases, deaths and net admissions to intensive care. But there is no sign - yet - of the steep climb in deaths and acute cases that France saw in March. 1/12

The number of new cases each day is accelerating and reached new peaks of over 13,000 on two successive days last Fri and Sat. The mortality rate – now averaging 43.4 a day – is also rising but certainly not exploding. More figures later. 2/12

The French government’s attitude is still to hold-the-line, wait-and-see but impose local restrictions. They are being either heroically calm or culpably slow. Compare the stringent new national rules imposed in the UK. This is definitely a reversal of roles since March. 3/12.

The French testing and tracing system is proving, like Britain’s, slow and cumbersome. President Macron is said to be furious. He has promised a faster new test shortly….4/12

Senior doctors and medical officials interviewed in Le Monde today are in no doubt that the Second Wave is here. Pressure is growing on hospitals all over France, they say. 5/12
lemonde.fr/planete/articl…

They predict that the second wave will be less dramatic than the first but much longer lasting. “We’ve moved from a 3,000 metre race to a marathon,” said Nicolas Van Grunderbeeck, head of intensive care in Arras in the Pas de Calais. 6/12

In the last six days, the number of new C19 cases in France has averaged 10,521. This compares with previous weekly averages of 8,755, 7,320 and 5,518. In other words, they are rising fast…but not exploding 7/12

The last 6 days’ figures, in reverse order starting yesterday, are: 10,008-5,298-10,569-13,498-13,215-10,593. Perhaps more worryingly, the “positive rate” or rolling percentage of positive tests, has risen to 6.1% compared to 5.2% two weeks ago. 8/12

The apparent number of deaths in the last 6 days has been muddled by a big figure – 154 – reported last Friday. This was inflated by cases reported late by hospitals in the south Paris suburbs after an administrative glitch. The total of C19 deaths in France is now 31,416. 9/12

Leaving aside that inflated figure, daily deaths, counting backwards, have been 78-53-11-25-50. This is an ave. of 43.4 a day, compared to previous weekly average of 35.8, 31.2 and 21. Rising but not – yet – exploding as they did in March-April, reaching over 1,000 a day. 10/12

Bed occupations in intensive care have doubled in the past three weeks. They now stand at 951. The average net daily increase in the last 6 days has been 25.1, which is actually a slight fall on the previous weekly average of 33.7. 11/12

The C19 hospital population is now 5,796, slightly down on 6 days ago (5,819). Good news? Difficult to say. The total fell but climbed rapidly again. Both hospital and IC figures remain far below the peaks of early April – 7,200 and 33,000.
Lets hope they remain that way. 12/12