Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
Sep 23, 2020 14 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Amazing exchange between @RandPaul and Dr. Fauci.

1) As one of the first people to raise the possibility that not everyone may be susceptible to COVID, and that cross reactive immunity may be protecting some people from severe infection, I agree with those points by @RandPaul
2) I’ve also been on record that seroprevalence underestimates the proportion of people who are immune & that we may be closer to herd immunity in prior hotspots than the 5-10% seroprevalence indicates. But that number (~2 times seroprevalence) is still far short of herd immunity
3) Having said here are 3 comments I disagree with.
-The comparison of NY to Sweden is not correct.
-The statement that flattening the curve does not reduce number of deaths is not correct
-We are doing as well as S. America & so mitigation strategies don’t help is not correct
Sweden as Dr. Fauci pointed out did not do anywhere as well as Denmark, Finland, or Norway—its neighbors. Those are the comparators. Sweden also had warning that NY didn’t have. So we cannot compare. Both Sweden and the US have done equally badly in terms of deaths per million.
Flattening the curve will spread CASES over time and so the area under the curve for cases may be similar whether you flattened or now. But not DEATHS. In fact, the whole idea of flattening the curve is to reduce high number of deaths that occurs when the system is overwhelmed
In fact NY, NJ and the east coast were hit BEFORE the flattening happened. The high death tolls there reflect what happens when the curve is NOT flattened. There is a lag between issuing mitigation orders and flattening to occur. Same thing happened in Lombardy.
We made a lot of mistakes. I have catalogued things we could have done better in hindsight. An earlier recommendation for universal masks would have helped. And a uniform bipartisan recommendation on that. We have fared really badly compared to most developed countries.
The reason why S. Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, and China have done so well is far less likely to be related to cross reactive immunity but rather related to strict border control for entry into country, testing, tracing, masks. They followed the science. We didn’t.
I agree that it’s possible that S. America, Africa, India, Pakistan have lower mortality because of cross reactive immunity from prior corona viral infections. But we likely have much less cross immunity. So if we had less social distancing like them, we would have 400,000 deaths
Some links. On susceptibility and cross reactive immunity.
On seroprevalence being an underestimate. @JoshuaPCohen1 google.com/amp/s/www.forb…
What could we have done better to reduce mortality. 10 factors in this list.
*now = not

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More from @VincentRK

Dec 9
AQUILA trial for high risk smoldering myeloma published in @NEJM today.
@thanosdimop

Personally for me, it is a huge milestone along 25 years of work that started in 1998. #ASH24 #ASH24VR

This story below may help those interested in a clinical trialist career.
1/ Image
In 1998, as a fellow @MayoClinic I was keen to determine if early intervention delayed progression and improved survival in SMM. #ASH24

In 1999, with the help of Tom Witzig, I led a small phase II trial of thalidomide for SMM. @LeukemiaJnl
2/ Image
I was then so fortunate to examine the natural history of SMM, with the legendary Bob Kyle. Honored to be last author on @NEJM paper that also provided data that most progressions occur in the first 5 years of diagnosis.

The start of the concept of high risk vs low risk SMM.
3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 24
Why are prescription drug prices are far higher in the US that other developed countries.

I’ll break it down. A full 360.

1/ We don’t negotiate prices at launch of a new drug. Others do. Image
As a result, we spend billions on common drugs that other countries spend a fraction of the price on.

Some drugs we pay 10 or 100 times more!! Image
2) Generic and biosimilar entry, adoption, and utilization is slower in the US, and there are many barriers.

Timely and adequate free market competition is critically important for lowering price. Image
Read 21 tweets
Jul 8
FDA approval doesn’t necessarily mean standard of care.

Thread.
1/
For example FDA approved Dara VMP for frontline therapy in myeloma in 2018.

Literally no one used the regimen in the US.

Literally no one felt the regimen was standard of care in the US.

Before or after approval!
Why?
FDA adjudicates a sponsors submission on whether a given drug/regimen has met the burden of proving safety and efficacy.

Standard of care in clinical practice is a different standard: judgment of risk/benefit of available alternatives, and assessment of trial design/end points.
Read 13 tweets
Jun 25
Cure is a simple word. But there is confusion when it comes to cancer. What cure is in cancer, and what we should aspire for?

When can we say that a given type of cancer is curable?
Thread
1/
There is a difference between when we can say a particular cancer is a curable type versus whether individual patients with a given cancer can be considered potentially cured.

They are not the same.
2/
To call a cancer curable we must be able to treat the cancer for a finite duration, stop all therapy, and know that a certain % of patients will never relapse

Early stage solid tumors, Hodgkin lymphoma, DLBCL, ALL, AML are curable. Real cure. The definition of curable cancer
3/
Read 13 tweets
Jun 1
The 4 big myeloma randomized trials to watch out for @ASCO #ASCO24

1. Isa-VRd vs Isa-Rd newly diagnosed
2.Isa-VRd vs VRd (IMROZ)
3.DREAMM8 Bela-Pd vs Pd
4.Ven Dex vs Pom Dex (Canova)

See thread for why they are important.
1) The Triplet vs Quad trials with will define role of quads in elderly patients with newly diagnosed myeloma. They also provide frontline phase III data with Isatuximab— and a choice between Dara and Isa. For some patients Isa will be more cost effective. @Myeloma_Doc #ASCO24
2) Belantamab will make a comeback.

Corneal toxicity is low with reduced frequency dosing. The drug works very well. And in many patients with refractory myeloma belantamab may be safer and easier to do than bispecifics. We need options. #ASCO24
Read 12 tweets
May 31
Just out: Updated mSMART recommendations for treatment of relapsed refractory myeloma. #MedTwitter @MayoMyeloma

1/ CART is now included as an option for second or higher relapse. msmart.org/mm-treatment-g…
2/ Even though CART (cilta-cel) is approved for first relapse we are NOT including it in our main algorithm. Reserved only for special circumstances in this population. We have a long track record with standard triplets, and we are concerned about CART side effects. Image
3/ The current approach for second or higher relapse continues to define 3 specific types of Triple Class refractory. This makes it easier for clinicians to consider options. Image
Read 6 tweets

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