Thread by @DrJinRussell

The anti-lockdown crowd will try to tell you that this piece shows why lockdown is worse - don’t let them fool you. What it actually shows is how little healthcare capacity we would have to deal w a Covid surge if we didn’t suppress the virus hard. /1 nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/articl…

For those without premium, the piece covers a backlog of thousands of patients waiting longer for specialist appointments and treatment in Auckland from July/June DHB data. There are two key points to make: (1) this is “acute on chronic stress” - at status quo, our health /2

System works close to maximal capacity, so a three week disruption, can tip it over the edge. No doubt there are service delays and impacts from Covid-19 L3&4, no denying that - but there is no “status quo” scenario to us in a global pandemic. DHBs were already stretched prior /3

To the pandemic. Then (2): meeting the healthcare needs of surge demand due to Covid-19 would very likely cause massive disruption. Our low ICU/per capita capacity in NZ means we’d need increase capacity to deal w wave of Covid-19 hospitalisations and ICU admissions /4

Modelling published in the Medical Journal of Australia showed that to triple ICU bed capacity alone (let alone increase total hospitalisations) would require a 250% increase in senior medical staff and nurses (ie redeployed from other health services). /5

Reference is here: mja.com.au/journal/2020/2…. This means there is no “business as usual”, my physician friends in the Uk and Australia have been redeployed - paediatricians working adult ventilator wards etc - don’t be fooled, our current strategy is our best chance at health /end