Reading the transcript of Whitty/Vallance lecture yesterday. I quote: “so about eight per cent, so 3 million or so people, may have been infected and have antibodies. It means that the vast majority of us are not protected in any way and are susceptible to this disease”.
Now had he said this on the floor of the House, he would have been guilty of misleading the House & made to come back, apologise profusely & set the record straight. But he wasn’t & also didn’t take any questions. I have to tell you that it’s not a matter of opinion. He’s LYING.
We know from the shape of the daily deaths vs time curve in U.K. & elsewhere that there is a force which caused the rapidly expanding pandemic in March to slow down & then to continue spreading at an ever decreasing rate, having already begun to decline before lockdown. This is..
...crucial. As it wasn’t lockdown which terminated the rapid expansion, alternative candidates for that force, which we are certain exists by inspection of the graph, are required. There is ONLY ONE candidate for that force. It is reducing remaining population susceptibility.
As that fell continuously, R was soon below 1 & stayed like that for 16 weeks straight. That our curve is the same shape as that in multiple other countries, including Sweden, ignoring our puny efforts to influence transmission of this respiratory virus, tells us with 100%...
...confidence that a substantial proportion of the U.K. population has already been infected & most have survived. Crucially it’s been demonstrated by at least 4 “Oxbridge quality” labs in several countries around the world, than in all cases, 20-50% of people had T-cell immune..
..recognition of SARS-COV-2 BEFORE the new virus was even identified. Add those newly infected to those already resistant to the virus, and there is the locus of the force bearing down on transmission. There isn’t any serious doubt about it. To antibodies. The reason I accuse..
..Sir Patrick, in public, of LYING is that I know that he, like me, is well aware of much literature on the extent to which infected people produce antibodies. Only the most seriously ill were certain to produce antibodies at high levels which persisted for some time. But those..
..who were infected & had a milder course of illness, not all produced antibodies & their levels fell away rather speedily. Those who were infected yet showed few times no symptoms did not go in to produce antibodies. The reasons make sense, too. If you resisted the virus...
...easily, you didn’t need to go through the slow & energetically expensive route of making antibodies, because you had other, perhaps so called “innate immune” mechanisms to protect you. Come along months later & test people for antibodies: of course you’ll find only those...
...people who had a bad time of it. Most of the others didn’t need antibodies & will be negative but they have been infected. Plainly put: the % with antibodies HUGELY underestimated the proportion of the population who are resistant to infection. Don’t believe them when they...
..scare you with their extreme predictions. It’s between implausible & impossible for a resurgence, which I term a #SecondaryRipple , to grow to any great size. It won’t rise anything like as speedily as in spring. It will soon plateau, begin to decline & that will be that.
A test: if the position was not, broadly, as I’ve painted it, you’d expect the most rapid resurgence in dense population centres, like London. That isn’t what’s happening. The reemergence is mostly limited to NW & NE, areas where probably the mixing of people was less complete...
...before our foolish Govt put in place additional restrictions. It was this which prevented us being where Sweden now is. But if we keep our nerve & pay attention to the experienced & pragmatic Prof Carl Heneghan, this will soon be over. It’s completely ludicrous that our...
...appear even to be contemplating more, chaotic & destructive acts. Anyone with influence on their MP, I beg of you: download this tweet string, send it to your MP & tell them I will personally explain this to them: they can decide if they’re being lied to.
They are.
Sue me.
(I missed the word ‘politicians’ between the last two tweets)
Don’t rely on what I’m telling you. Listen to the 2min statement by this leading US medic & come back and challenge me if you aren’t hearing him cite exactly the same evidence summarised here:

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More from @MichaelYeadon3

30 Oct
What SAGE Has Got Wrong – Lockdown Sceptics

It’s Easier to Fool People Than It Is to Convince Them That They Have Been Fooled.” – Mark Twain

Dr Mike Yeadon has a degree in biochemistry and toxicology and a research-based PhD in respiratory...…
... pharmacology. He has spent over 30 years leading new medicines research in some of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, leaving Pfizer in 2011 as Vice President & Chief Scientist for Allergy & Respiratory. That was the most senior research position in this field...
... in Pfizer. Since leaving Pfizer, Dr Yeadon has founded his own biotech company, Ziarco, which was sold to the worlds biggest drug company, Novartis, in 2017.

I’ve reposted my mini biography. I’m the scientific equal of anyone on SAGE. I even worked in an adjacent lab to...
Read 16 tweets
30 Oct
Thank it JOEL. Please everyone, take a look. Weekly death rate England. It’s entirely NORMAL. There aren’t more deaths than usual. There aren’t more respiratory deaths than normal. Govt claims there is a lethal respiratory virus at large, killing 100s per day.
It is misdiagnosis.
Because there aren’t excess respiratory deaths - and Govt KNOWS there aren’t, there is NO need for any further ‘measures’ that are hurting families, killing people & destroying the economy. This isn’t opinion or forecasting. It’s right in front of your eyes. If you don’t object.. the strongest terms and just say “we the people of U.K. are not doing this; the virus killed people but it’s months ago stopped; your unchecked, error-prone test is lying to us all, cease immediately”, our country & lives are all in peril. With no exaggeration, I’ve....
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
@J_CD_T Interesting, thanks.
I have a major using seroprevalence to guide us in any way. The process of forming antibodies is long, yet the apparent half life varies so much as to render seroprevalence as uninterpretable. Mild & asymptomatic infections result in too little if any...
@J_CD_T ...antibodies. If we come back a month, or 6 or 9 months later then, depending on the sensitivity of immunoassay used, you could get more of less any numbers.
I do not believe on this basis that seroprevalence is useful in guiding us. Admissions & deaths coupled with properly-...
@J_CD_T ...conducted PCR testing, is the way forward.

By the way: really key point. What is the excess deaths profile in Italy over the last 4 weeks? Remember that Covid19 kills mostly old & very old people with two or more serious chronic illness, they’re typically respiratory...
Read 11 tweets
28 Oct
“About 10% of the global population may be infected by October 2020. Global infection fatality rate is 0.15‐0.20% (0.03‐0.04% in those <70 years)”

You can make an estimate of the % of U.K. population infected by reference to Covid19 fatalities to date & the IFR. It’s not...
...a perfect method, but it yielded around 32% (that’s using the higher IFR; it would be closer to 40% using the lower value).

However you do the maths, even if 100% of us were initially susceptible (as SAGE said), you don’t get “more than 90%” when subtracting 32% from 100%.
Worse, our population never was 100% susceptible. That would have been truly astonishing because viruses tend to be related to other viruses.

Indeed, that rather radical journal, the BMJ, now recognised that around 30% of us had prior immunity to this virus, before it arrived,
Read 10 tweets
27 Oct
Sometimes it’s useful to revisit basic concepts. We appear to have forgotten that immunity after viral infection is the rule, not the exception.

“In this chapter, we highlight the principal means by which the host achieves immunity following infection by viruses”.
“Table 27.1 presents an overview”.
“In humans, viral infections are rarely lethal, even if they are highly cytolytic to individual cells. Mortality commonly occurs when viruses jump species (eg. Ebola or HIV), when virus undergoes major antigenic change (i.e., influenza) or when host immunity is compromised”.
Read 12 tweets
27 Oct
@js100js100 What exactly do people expect? Antibodies are costly molecules to make. They occupy a lot of solute space which you don’t have much of in serum. I asked some bright people questions & the conclusions they reached were that you must have circulating forever high levels of...
@js100js100 ...antibodies to everything to which you have immunity. We did some back of the envelope calculations are it was realised that if all your blood cells were removed, there still isn’t enough room for that to happen. QED that isn’t how immunity works.
Why is our national...
@js100js100 ...broadcaster putting up experts whose job appears to be deliberately misleading & thereby to stoke fear?
Allow me to reassure you. While we cannot be certain that the duration of immunity after SARS-CoV-2 will resemble that after SARS, it is likely. The two viruses are 80%...
Read 7 tweets

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