1/4 With the latest sanctions, the US is changing its strategy in Xinjiang from ethnic destabilization to sanctions-based suppression of economic activity
2/4 Timing wise, the US knows the world fashion industry is slumping this year so they will be cutting suppliers left/right/center; so the US gave a powerful incentive to cut Xinjiang-based textile suppliers via the sanctions + withdrawal of ESG audit firms
3/4 The goal of US sanctions is still the same as with ethnic destabilization: prevent Xinjiang from developing and tying Central Asia/Russia with firms on China's east coast. This matters b/c the US doesn't want China to fill the post-NATO Afghan power vacuum
4/4 Afghanistan+Xinjiang matters b/c then Iran, Russia, and China can link together by land, which would reduce the leverage the USN has over global trade. So the US sanctions Xinjiang.
(Of course, sanctioning Xinjiang makes Uighurs worse off, but the US doesn't care)
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Friend tells me that China and Russia offered multiple neutral diplomatic venues to India and Pakistan over the last few days but they were all turned down by India
Key issue is the Indus Water Treaty. India wants to use this attack as excuse to permanently end the Treaty and build enough dams on the Indus watershed to "strangle Pakistan at will"
India also considering cross border raids in the next two weeks and putting logistics in place for corps-sized assaults in both Kashmir and Rajasthan. Also putting substantial long range artillery in range of Lahore to shell the city. Pakistan also making logistical preparations.
COPIUM - A Thread: I think what Covid demonstrated is that most of the English-language pundit class is not only useless but counterproductive. In Jan/Feb (2020) it was "Reeeeee Chernobyl!" In Mar/Apr it was "it is vital to call this the Wuhan virus"
while actual debate around tests/masks etc., was conducted by noobs like Noah Smith. In May to Nov (2020) it was prolonged tussling over how this would affect the election. From Nov onwards it's been "Reeeeee vaccines! America is awesome!"
Punctuated by Tyler Cowen's article saying that America is resilient because it endured 500k deaths without mass riots!
if you look at this, Intel started slipping vs its internal schedule and vs its competitors as Canon/Nikon exited the lithography/tooling race
this was because TSMC and Samsung were happy to co-develop each new generation of tooling with ASML, AMAT, LRCX etc while Intel generally hoarded process knowledge to itself
1/ The problem with even less toxic faux-progressives like Tobita is that their takes are devoid of geopolitical context.
AOC speaks up about Tibet because Tibet is a salient issue to India, and a Dem POTUS is pushing a diplomatic initiative with India, Japan, and Australia.
2/ Tobita then draws a strawman as to why people are criticizing AOC. At least for me, I don't find her views on Tibet ipso facto problematic - I dislike her use of human rights in a way that benefits American geopolitical objectives, like she did with Venezuela.
3/ This, again, also extends to why I find the Tobita, Promise Li, Wilfred, and the rest of the "Lausan Left" so troublesome, because they have shown at most lip service tut-tutting to how their progressive ideals are used for decidedly unprogressive ends
All extended air campaigns boil down to degrading opfor c4isr and airbases while keeping your facilities intact, while maintaining acceptable loss ratios
A max effort USN USAF campaign on short notice vs China can plausibly generate 4000 to 5000 sorties across a week without additional replenishment. 1200 each from two carriers, with the remainder from INDOPACOM land based aircraft