Thread by @gianlucac1

I SO LOVE GOOD OLD BRIT DIPLOMACY, BUT I AM ITALIAN
3d

Mr Kucharsky debunks a study that pretend to infer seroprevalence in Tokio.The result presented is striking: Tokio would have 48.6% Seroprevalence!

Ok lets go
1/n

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1309045565360144384

How did they recruit?

2/n👇

So all people were recruited at work, although in different locations

So working ages, working places, etc etc etc ... oh boy

Random Sample innit?
(heckman is blushing)

3/n

But a big boy steps in, endorsing everything

THE PAPAER IS A GAME CHANGER!!!!!!

4/n👇👇

TOKIO HAS HIT THE HIT (Heard Immunity Threashold)!!!

(Deeeep breath)

1) the sample recruited to assess seroprevalence is far from being representative
2) As the study presents results on such sample, if there is any info to be taken is on SARw (Secondary Attack Rate Work).
5/n

2) but maybe not even that
3) Prof Levitt is a bit erratic: Is Gomes-Aguas correct (HIT at 20%) or is this Tokio thingy corrrect (HIT 50%)?
(Spoiler they are both wrong IMHO)

every day we reinvent the wheel on Twitter!!!

@ThManfredi @CrossWordsCW @mtizzoni @Di_SPACE_Lauro
6/6