Ryan Grim Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Lots of polling shows that Democrats are less likely to vote if they believe Trump is just going to steal the election. Trump's people have no doubt seen that polling too, which might be motivating Trump to be so honest about stealing the election. Win-win, so to speak.
The more he can get the media and Democratic leaders to talk about his willingness to steal the election, the less likely it becomes that he has to steal it to win. Awfully clever, if intentional.
And this point is not remotely controversial among Democratic strategists who analyze polling and have found that people are more likely to vote if they think their vote will matter and count. Here's one piece of a memo where they talk about how to better frame it (3rd row down) Image
This yougov model finds that undermining faith in the election does not hurt enthusiasm. What I’m reporting on here is the conclusion of Dem strategists who’ve analyzed the polling and argue the opposite, that if you tell people their vote won’t count, they’re less likely to vote
The Biden camp thinks this is what he's doing Image

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More from @ryangrim

Jun 30
Biden’s campaign manager and his deputy campaign manager both sent long emails to close groups of supporters trying to help people cope with the exposure of the lie the campaign has been telling everybody.

The short version: hey, everybody knew he was old. Shut up and vote.
I would post them here but what’s the point
Alright, gotta get the kids to bed first though
Read 6 tweets
Jun 1
1/ There is a lot of manufactured confusion around these ceasefire proposals, but what happened is fairly simple:

On 5/29, Israel’s war cabinet approved an offer for a ceasefire that was transmitted to Hamas. Netanyahu only agreed to it under extreme pressure, and over the opposition of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, who are not in the war cabinet.

On 5/30, Hamas rejected it, saying no to talks unless Israel stopped its assault. Here’s their statement:Image
On 5/31, Biden grabbed the Israeli proposal, which Netanyahu had been happy to see rejected by Hamas, and made it fully public, cleverly but accurately calling it the Israeli proposal. Which it is. But Netanyahu hates it.

So now Netanyahu is walking back from it while Hamas is responding “positively.”
Now the mediators, U.S., Qatar, and Egypt, are putting pressure on both Israel and Hamas to accept the deal
Read 7 tweets
May 17
🚨Update: Israel offered to evacuate Dr. Hamawy and others from the hospital but refused to allow new medical aid workers to replace them. Five volunteers accepted the offer but Dr. Hamawy refused, insisting on staying with his patients.

He sends this comment through a colleague:

“There is a palpable gloom and foreboding that had set in at the hospital. The children and staff are asking for everyone by name. All the Americans and Brits left. That can’t be a good sign.”
The medical missions rotate in and out every two weeks. The missions have insisted they not be evacuated until the new rotation is able to come in. Israel is refusing. More than a dozen international medical workers remain at the hospital.
Here's our original article with @Hind_Gaza theintercept.com/2024/05/13/raf…
Read 4 tweets
May 13
Upward of 20 American doctors are trapped at the European Hospital in Gaza, facing extreme dehydration, at least one is on an IV drip. This is a developing situation…

Story with @Hind_Gaza theintercept.com/2024/05/13/raf…
The State Department tells me it is “working around the clock” and coordinating with Israel and Egypt to evacuate the doctors.

Yet a UN vehicle heading to the European Hospital was fired on by the IDF today, killing its driver
The mission had been in a safe house but was urged to leave, concerned the IDF would strike it. A member of the mission took this video, of part of the dystopian route from the safe house to the hospital
Read 7 tweets
May 10
🚨 Last week, we reported that AIPAC was using a "pro-science" group as a pass-through to take out Pramila Jayapal's sister in a Portland, OR congressional race.

There was serious pushback to that article, but we now have follow up reporting that is even more damning 🧵 Image
First, I asked for staffers at 314 Action, the science PAC, to reach out. Several did. The operation AIPAC and 314 are running is bigger than Jayapal and will soon expand to target @CoriBush -- though under the name of a new shell PAC. One staffer said: “314 has turned its back on science in order to be used as a weapon against progressives by Zionists."Image
Second, Maxine Dexter was required to post a disclosure about a May 7 fundraiser. Thanks to help from people here (including @ddayen), we can report that nearly 90% of those donors also gave to AIPAC. I got one of the max-out donors on the phone and she said directly:
Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 23
So the “stabbed in the eye” report, which sent genuine fear rippling through Jewish communities, for good reason, turns out to be bogus. Here’s the video, it’s a grazing at most by a tiny flag, and turns out the “victim” is a known right wing provocateur
Here’s the experience of an even younger student. Compare the two
Read 4 tweets

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