Aaron Reichlin-Melnick Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Under DHS's new proposed rule, if you were born in, or are a citizen of, one of the countries on this map, you would be banned from getting a four-year degree in the United States, with a student visa limited to two years maximum.

The thread has all the countries.
Rather than have people dig through the threads to get to the original rationale, here's the relevant provision I built this map off of.

The vast majority of these countries would be banned from 4-year-degrees based on this overstay provision.

It's collective punishment.
Here's a thread I did on some of the other changes made by the rule, which was published this morning.

People who want to oppose the rule will be able to provide comments in opposition to the rule, starting tomorrow and lasting through 10/25/2020.

Here's the best example I can give for why collective punishment based on visa overstay rates is arbitrary and cruel.

In 2019, six students from Tuvalu were supposed to leave the US. One didn't.

As a result, the visa overstay rate was 17%—meaning all Tuvalans would be punished.
Also, whoops, just realizing I forgot to add Chad to the map. Chad would also be subject to the ban, because they had a student visa/exchange visitor overstay rate over 10% in FY2019.

That completes the band across the middle of Africa.
One final thing to add to this thread; that things are not totally lost if the rule goes into effect.

Students in those situation would be able to ask DHS for an extension of their visas past two years. So that means it's not a total ban.

But those extensions aren't guaranteed.
Putting this here: I maybe should not have used the word "ban." Some people would still be able to get a four-year degree, but would be required to apply to extend their visas repeatedly through their time in college—extensions which aren't guaranteed.
Starting tomorrow morning, people will be able to leave a comment in opposition to this rule at this link. federalregister.gov/documents/2020…
DHS says it's fixing a major problem. But DHS data says just 32,023 people are suspected of overstaying a student/exchange visa in 2019.

And because the rule is based on PERCENT, the countries with the highest NUMBER of overstays (China, India, Brazil, Canada) aren't affected.
Here's why a % threshold is so stupid:

China: 11,030 student/exchange overstays (unaffected by rule)
India: 5,304 (unaffected)
Brazil: 3,177 (unaffected)
Saudi Arabia: 2,983 (unaffected)
South Korea: 2,492 (unaffected)
Japan: 1,418 (unaffected)
...
Tuvalu: 1 (restricted)

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More from @ReichlinMelnick

Feb 3
Mexico commits to another large deployment of its National Guard to the northern border, claiming they will focus on preventing fentanyl trafficking, and Trump calls off the tariffs for now.

Of course, since most fentanyl is smuggled by US citizens, this won't stop much at all.
The deployment of Mexican National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border in 2019 under Trump had zero impact on fentanyl smuggling before, because it's not migrants who are smuggling fentanyl in the overwhelming majority of cases. Fentanyl traffic continued to rise each year.
To emphasize once again: the vast majority of fentanyl traffickers are US citizens, who get less scrutiny when reentering the country at ports of entry.

Here's the Sentencing Commission noting that in FY 2023, 86.4% of people sentenced for fentanyl trafficking were US citizens. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
Colombia has accepted hundreds of deportation flights in the past years. It rejected two flights using military planes, but agreed to continue taking flights using normal ICE planes.

In response, the Trump administration has done the equivalent of punching them in the face.
All repatriations are governed by bilateral agreements. Every country has an absolute right to set the terms by which they take deportations from another country.

And if you don’t know why military planes might be an issue, pick up a book on 20th century Latin American history.
Obviously I am not Gustavo Petro nor am I Colombian, so my thoughts on this are purely my own, but I can’t help but think that Trump’s actions eliminated an easy off-ramp for Petro to get the U.S. to say they’ll be nicer and then keep on taking deportation flights like normal.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 24
When speaking to experts in Latin America, I've been told that the use of military planes by the United States could be seen as an insult. And now it seems they were right; Mexico's president just refused to take a deportation flight from the US for the first time in years. Mexico refuses to accept a U.S. deportation flight The Mexican government has criticized President Donald Trump's unilateral immigration actions, and the landing would have required Mexico's assistance.
Two military plane deportation flights were carried out to Guatemala, but as this user pointed out, Mexico appears to have denied the US permission to use Mexican airspace.

Mexico has been taking US deportations for a century, so that's noteworthy.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 24
🚨NEW! The Trump administration has invoked a decades-old, never-before-invoked, legal authority that permits them to authorize willing state and local enforcement officers to carry out "any of the powers, privileges, or duties" of an immigration officer (ICE or Border Patrol). Accordingly, pursuant to the authorities under the Immigration and Nationality Act, 8 U.S.C. § 1101, et sec., including the implementing regulations identified above, I find "that there exist circumstances involving the administration ofthe immigration laws ofthe United States that endanger the lives, property, safety, or welfare of the residents" of all 50 States. I further find that an actual or imminent mass influx of aliens is arriving at the southern border of the United States and presents urgent circumstances requiring an immediate federal response. I therefore request the ...
The memo invokes an obscure law Congress enacted decades ago authorizing DHS (then INS) to declare a "mass influx" and deputize local law enforcement as full immigration officers.

DHS must enter into written agreements and oversee any deputized LEOs.
dhs.gov/sites/default/…
This will be subject to legal challenge, especially given the sweeping delegation of authority, which claims a mass influx in all 50 states (including Alaska and Hawaii apparently, which is obviously absurd). But courts may be deferential to executive use of this authority.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 21
This guy just got a full and unconditional pardon from Donald Trump. USA Man Who Dragged Officer Into Jan. 6 Mob Gets More Than 7 Years October 27, 2022 10:13 PM By Associated Press
This guy just got a full and unconditional pardon from Donald Trump. Press Release Maryland Man Sentenced to Prison for Assaulting Law Enforcement During Jan. 6 Capitol Breach Friday, December 13, 2024
This guy just got a full and unconditional pardon from Donald Trump. National Man sentenced to 20 years for attacking police in Jan. 6 riot at U.S. Capitol August 9, 20246:04 PM ET By   The Associated Press
Read 15 tweets
Jan 16
I can quibble with the timeline on some of these (e.g. "restart wall construction" will take months to put into action given the state of contractual issues) but I agree that the majority of this will be attempted. The most immediate EO impact will be cuts to legal immigration.
Actually this is a great opportunity to do a thread on some of the things to look out for on in the first week. I'm going to mirror @David_J_Bier's thread here and go over some thoughts about each. Sorry David for spamming your mentions.

Let's start with CHNV parole.
@David_J_Bier The CHNV program came through a deal with Mexico, where they'd take US deportations of some non-Mexican nationals in exchange for the US taking a reciprocal number via alternate legal pathways.

The program worked. Border crossings dropped. But migrants do get to come in legally. Image
Read 27 tweets

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