Aaron Reichlin-Melnick Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Under DHS's new proposed rule, if you were born in, or are a citizen of, one of the countries on this map, you would be banned from getting a four-year degree in the United States, with a student visa limited to two years maximum.

The thread has all the countries.
Rather than have people dig through the threads to get to the original rationale, here's the relevant provision I built this map off of.

The vast majority of these countries would be banned from 4-year-degrees based on this overstay provision.

It's collective punishment.
Here's a thread I did on some of the other changes made by the rule, which was published this morning.

People who want to oppose the rule will be able to provide comments in opposition to the rule, starting tomorrow and lasting through 10/25/2020.

Here's the best example I can give for why collective punishment based on visa overstay rates is arbitrary and cruel.

In 2019, six students from Tuvalu were supposed to leave the US. One didn't.

As a result, the visa overstay rate was 17%—meaning all Tuvalans would be punished.
Also, whoops, just realizing I forgot to add Chad to the map. Chad would also be subject to the ban, because they had a student visa/exchange visitor overstay rate over 10% in FY2019.

That completes the band across the middle of Africa.
One final thing to add to this thread; that things are not totally lost if the rule goes into effect.

Students in those situation would be able to ask DHS for an extension of their visas past two years. So that means it's not a total ban.

But those extensions aren't guaranteed.
Putting this here: I maybe should not have used the word "ban." Some people would still be able to get a four-year degree, but would be required to apply to extend their visas repeatedly through their time in college—extensions which aren't guaranteed.
Starting tomorrow morning, people will be able to leave a comment in opposition to this rule at this link. federalregister.gov/documents/2020…
DHS says it's fixing a major problem. But DHS data says just 32,023 people are suspected of overstaying a student/exchange visa in 2019.

And because the rule is based on PERCENT, the countries with the highest NUMBER of overstays (China, India, Brazil, Canada) aren't affected.
Here's why a % threshold is so stupid:

China: 11,030 student/exchange overstays (unaffected by rule)
India: 5,304 (unaffected)
Brazil: 3,177 (unaffected)
Saudi Arabia: 2,983 (unaffected)
South Korea: 2,492 (unaffected)
Japan: 1,418 (unaffected)
...
Tuvalu: 1 (restricted)

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More from @ReichlinMelnick

Feb 5
🚨HOLY CRAP. The Trump admin just took a SLEDGEHAMMER to due process, largely eliminating the Board of Immigration Appeals process and MANDATING DISMISSAL of ALL appeals (which cost $1,000 thanks to OBBBA) filed after March 9 unless a majority of the BIA votes to hear the case. Image
The Trump admin is ALSO changing the rules so that rather than 30 days to file a Notice of Appeal, people will now only have 10 days in most cases.

That's just 10 days to find $1,000 and appellate counsel for an appeal the government says it will likely automatically deny! Image
The goal is clear; mass deportations over due process. An order of removal does not become "final" until the Board of Immigration Appeals denies an appeal. After that, ICE can deport the person unless they file ANOTHER appeal to a federal circuit court AND get an emergency stay.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 3
This is a LIE. The most recent Haitian TPS grants began in August 2021, after President Moïse was assassinated by mercenaries, plunging Haiti into chaos. Thousands were killed in an earthquake two weeks later.

Since then, it’s been redesignated twice as the situation worsened.
Only about 1 in 7 people with Haitian TPS were protected in 2010 or 2011 after the earthquake. The Obama admin extended TPS for those ~50,000 people in 2012, 2014, and 2015, given the slow recovery. Here's Judge Reyes summarizing it.

In 2017, the Trump admin tried to end it. Image
Image
The fate of the 50,000 people with Haitian TPS was tied up in court battles through Trump's first term. Long story short, the admin failed to end TPS for them.

After Biden took office, President Moïse was assassinated and the situation in Haiti took a massive turn for the worse.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3
NEW: Judge Reyes blocks the Trump admin from ending Temporary Protected Status for roughly 350,000 Haitians granted protection in the years following the assassination of President Moïse in July 2021.

She begins with a comparison: President Washington versus Kristi Noem. Image
Judge Reyes begins by explaining who the plaintiffs are: not "killers, leeches, or entitlement junkies" as Kristi Noem suggested.

They are a neuroscientist, a software engineer, a laboratory assistant, a registered nurse, and an economics major. All were facing deportation. Image
Right at the top, Judge Reyes lays out her official findings, after reviewing the evidence. She says it is "substantially likely" that Secretary Noem's decision to end Haitian TPS was "preordained" and based on Secretary Noem's general "hostility to nonwhite immigrants." Image
Read 20 tweets
Jan 30
BIG news from Bloomberg, which confirms that ICE has gone ahead and *purchased* some commercial warehouses with the aim of converting them into mass detention camps.

This is likely to be the big detention story of 2026 — the literal warehousing of people in converted buildings. Image
ICE has already spent $172 million to purchase two warehouses, one in Hagerstown, MD and one in Surprise, AZ.

ICE will then have to pay more to convert them into makeshift detention camps. Leaked reports suggest each of these two warehouses will hold 1,500 people each. Image
The Hagerstown and Surprise warehouse detention camps are set to be DWARFED by the purchase of a massive warehouse in El Paso where ICE wants to hold 8,500 people, making it instantly the second-largest jail in the entire United States (behind only Rikers Island in NYC). Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 21
🚨HOLY CRAP. An ICE whistleblower just revealed a secret memo authorizing ICE officers to break into homes without a judicial warrant, which DHS's own legal training materials say is unconstitutional!

ICE then hid the memo from the public, passing it along by word of mouth. Image
ICE secretly told its officers that any time someone has been ordered removed, ICE can break down their door.

It has been accepted for generations that the only thing which can authorize agents to break into your home is a warrant signed by a judge. No wonder ICE hid this memo! Image
Image
Chillingly, the whistleblower says that ICE trainers were directed (no paper trail?) to train all of ICE's new recruits that these administrative warrants authorize breaking into peoples' homes, even though DHS's own training materials still make clear that's illegal! Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 18
Noem's claim is FALSE. Here is ICE's own data on the detention population among those arrested by ICE:

- 43% no criminal record (up from 6% last January)
- 29% one or more prior conviction*
- 28% one or more pending charge

*two most common are traffic and immigration offenses Image
Noem was confused by the question and defaulted to a different claim ICE makes; that 70% of people *arrested* by ICE have a prior criminal record or pending charges (also way down from January 2025).

As I've documented, that hasn't been true for MONTHS. Image
HOWEVER, total ICE arrests include thousands of people in criminal custody who are being transferred to ICE.

As of October, 2 out of 3 people arrested by ICE outside of a custodial setting, i.e. in American communities, have no criminal record. That's what Americans are seeing. Image
Read 8 tweets

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