Bill Scher Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Battleground early vote counting procedures:

AK: 8 PM E-Day
AZ: 14 days prior
CO: 15 days prior
FL: 22 days prior*
GA: 7 AM E-Day
IA: 1 day prior
KS: unspecific prior
ME: 7 days prior
MI: 7 AM E-Day*
MN: 8 PM E-Day
MT: 1 day prior if using machine

...
NE: 1 day prior
NC: 14 days prior
NV: 14 days prior
NH: when polls close
OH: unspecific prior
PA: 7 AM E-Day
SC: 9 AM E-Day
TX: When polls open but 10/31 in large jurisdictions
WI: When polls open

...
*In FL, DeSantis issued an order allowing counting "earlier" than the 22 days prior under current law tampabay.com/florida-politi…

In MI, there's a bill that passed the Senate which would allow large jurisdictions to process ballots one day prior mlive.com/public-interes…
I'll also add that MN does most of the "processing" of its early votes before Election Day, so the "count" typically goes fast, as noted here

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More from @billscher

Jun 20
Trump has placed a huge bet on a bonkers GOTV plan

And he appears to have ousted Ronna McDaniel as RNC chair so he could do it

I explain in full at @monthly

But here’s a 🧵 sum-up…washingtonmonthly.com/2024/06/20/don…
Last year Charlie Kirk’s right-wing Turning Point operation began hawking at $108M GOTV plan focusing on AZ, GA, WI.

But Turning Point has no successful track record in the GOTV biz.

They played in the ‘22 AZ races & lost (see )…azcentral.com/story/news/pol…
At first glance of this proposal @EWErickson said: “Any donor who thinks an organization needs $108 million for a three-state grassroots get-out-the-vote campaign is being taken advantage of. It sounds like a grift.” …

apnews.com/article/electi…
Read 9 tweets
May 2, 2023
Funny thing about the swing state general election trial heats that test Trump & DeSantis: they are almost all from GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies, commissioned by Koch-network group Citizens Awareness Project citizenawarenessproject.com/research/

...
...Every one of the POS/CAP swing state polls has DeSantis outperforming Trump

citizenawarenessproject.com/research/

ajc.com/politics/polit…

...
...I'm aware of only two swing state general election trial heats not performed by POS/CAP

Nevada Independent has DeSantis performing better than Trump: thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-…

In NH, Emerson has Trump performing better than DeSantis: emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-…

...
Read 4 tweets
Mar 19, 2023
The @peterbakernyt int’vw of Ben Barnes nytimes.com/2023/03/18/us/… absolutely strengthens the case that the Reagan ‘80 campaign (but not necessarily Reagan) illegally tried to undermine talks w/Iran to free the hostages

But it doesn’t answer the Q if that’s *why* Iran delayed…
…as noted by Baker, Barnes did talk previously (if not as extensively) with historian @hwbrands for Brands’ Reagan bio…
…but Brands still concluded the effort was “almost certainly superfluous”…
Read 5 tweets
Jan 12, 2023
How Democrats should handle the current migrant influx, both rhetorically and substantively, is a vexing challenge. But one they need to meet or else they will turn on each other.

I have thoughts in the @monthly, but in short...
washingtonmonthly.com/2023/01/11/dem…
Dems need to communicate that the influx is a short-term problem but a long-term opportunity.

* We have a labor shortage and need workers.

* Many are fleeing broken socialist countries. America should be a bulwark against authoritarianism by welcoming those seeking freedom...
* Yet the huge number of people coming puts real strain on cities trying to provide immediate food, shelter, education, and work.

* We need to better manage the flow, so we can fix the problems and reap the benefits....
Read 6 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
DeSantis' decisions are utterly baffling to me. I obviously have to acknowledge his noxious bets have all paid off to date. But what in the Sam Hill the is the upside of going all in on Covid vaccine skepticism?
Welp I guess DeSantis is going to run for prez as the anti-science candidate

(As a few others have wisely said to me, DeSantis can try to run to the right of Trump, who complained about Fauci but didn't fire him (which he didn't have the power to do))

Read 4 tweets
Dec 11, 2022
Taking this at face value, this is very naive thinking.

At minimum, she doesn’t need to go D->I to transcend partisanship get things done, as evidenced by her own legislative record

And it may make the task much harder…
…before, Sinema could pretty much count on full D caucus support for any bipartisan deal. The big challenge was getting the Rs, convincing them a deal didn’t go against their interests.

Now, she can’t assume every D will be invested in voting for a deal of hers…
…bc Sinema’s electoral interests are no longer shared by Democrats.

So she has to convince some number of senators in *both* parties to support a bill of hers, even though *both* parties want to replace her in 2024, and do not want her to be getting outsized credit…
Read 5 tweets

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