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Sep 24, 2020 12 tweets 7 min read Read on X
THREAD: A @CIS_org report claims that refugees cost the govt more than they contribute. But the report inflates costs and reaches overconfident conclusions.

Left plot: CIS estimates. Right plot: w/ descendant effects and w/o educational downgrading niskanencenter.org/the-weak-case-…
.@CIS_org's method of calculating avg refugee cost: 1) start with estimates of the lifetime fiscal impact of immigrants by age+edu from @theNASEM report 2) add costs for refugee resettlement/welfare, 3) apply estimates to refugees based on their age+education in the 2016 (ASR).
The ASR includes a question on educational attainment, but rather than rely on refugees' responses, CIS report opts to subject their answers to arbitrary cutoffs based on the ASR's years of schooling question, effectively downgrading educational attainment.
CIS also ignores the economic benefits that come from refugees' children (departing from @theNASEM's estimate). This allows CIS to claim a much higher degree of certainty around its estimates than is warranted.
This omission shrinks the distribution of possible estimates reported by CIS drastically and is less an issue of misestimation than overconfidence.
We're left with no evidence that refugees are a net fiscal cost, but a method that gives an underwhelming spread of possible fiscal impacts on both sides of zero. Accounting for several dubious decisions reveals overstated costs and overstated confidence.
So @CIS_org's report isn't exactly the best for backing up the claim that refugees impose a fiscal burden on Americans (one of the key claims the administration has used to justify its policy of slashing refugee admissions). Is there anything better?
The best study on the fiscal impact of refugees found their net fiscal impact to be positive, estimating that within 20 years, refugees pay tens of thousands of dollars more in taxes than they receive in benefits. nber.org/papers/w23498#….
Back in 2017, @juliehdavis and @SominiSengupta found that the administration was trying to suppress a study it had commissioned from HHS (on the grounds that HHS was tasked with looking only at the costs of refugee resettlement and not the benefits).
nytimes.com/2017/09/18/us/…
(HHS had concluded that refugees were a net fiscal boon, bringing in $63 billion more in revenue than they received in expenditures.) niskanencenter.org/suppressing-be…
The Trump administration has suppressed or ignored the evidence in favor of refugees while cherry-picking from overconfident reports that support its agenda. It's all very telling, isn't it?

Read @JeremyLNeufeld's full analysis here. niskanencenter.org/the-weak-case-…

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More from @NiskanenCenter

May 9
New apartment buildings in U.S. all look really similar to each other.

One reason: U.S. regulations dictate an oddly-specific layout that's hostile to families and limits light/ventilation.

THREAD:
Image
Image
In most U.S. cities, building code requires multiple exit stairways accessible from each apartment for buildings over 3 stories tall.

It's all done in the name of fire safety. But the restrictions don't really advance fire safety.
Enter the double-loaded corridor layout.

Long, windowless corridors slice through the middle of deep floor plates.

Non-corner units only have windows on one side, opposite the entry door—favoring studios and one-bedroom layouts. Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 20
.@heritage publishes regular iterations of its “Mandate for Leadership” with an agenda for the next Republican administration. The prior Trump admin implemented nearly 64% of its recommendations in its 1st year.

Here’s what’s in the 2025 edition: niskanencenter.org/project-2025-u…
First, the Mandate would effectively close many avenues of legal immigration by:
❌Halting H2 visa programs
❌Closing the H-1B visa program to most recent grads
❌Leveraging entire visa categories as collateral in foreign policy negotiations
It would sabotage U.S. humanitarian relief by:
❌Repealing all TPS designations, stripping almost 700,000 of legal protection + work authorization.
❌Forbidding use of DHS staff time on DACA, Uniting for Ukraine, etc.
❌Prohibiting refugee vetting, ending refugee resettlement.
Read 14 tweets
Apr 6, 2023
NEW PAPER: Manufactured housing is an affordable option in rural areas where land prices are low. They even promise to ease the housing crunch in coastal cities where land prices are high!

But, as always, housing discrimination is getting in the way. niskanencenter.org/manufactured-h…
To clarify, we’re not talking about vacation trailers, or 1970’s-era mobile homes. Modern manufactured homes have strict standards for structural integrity and safety. They often look like homes built on-site, but they were assembled in a factory, like a car or an airplane.
Benefits of manufactured homes include: (1) They’re safer and more efficient to make, their materials don’t have to be exposed to the elements until the house is fully assembled, and (3) they can help improve quality of housing while driving costs down.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 4, 2023
Critics of Welcome Corps (the new U.S. private refugee sponsorship program) have been complaining loudly that it's vulnerable to fraud.

We’ve looked into 3 of the main concerns and have found that all but one are completely unsubstantiated. 1/ niskanencenter.org/is-there-any-t…
CONCERN 1: “The vetting process for refugees is being expedited and is therefore less thorough.”

FACT: Privately sponsored applicants must still go through the same USRAP pipeline as everyone else and have often been waiting years to travel. 2/
CONCERN 2: “The quality of protections meant to ensure sponsors are well-vetted aren’t good enough.”

FACT: Extensive safeguards have been built into the private sponsor group application process to screen for potential bad actors. 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 28, 2023
THREAD: Why do housing supply restrictions persist? Conventional wisdom says it's because incumbents are defending their property values.

The reality is way more complicated. That's an opportunity for YIMBYs.

Introducing our agenda for abundant housing: niskanencenter.org/an-agenda-for-… Image
Before we enact any reform, we have to understand the political economy of our system: whom it empowers, whom it enriches, etc.

Answering these questions will rally opinion shapers around reform, protect reforms against backlash, and help avoid unintended consequences.
Here's how the conventional wisdom explains the political economy of housing: single-family homes and large lot sizes restrict the availability of housing to buyers who will pay at least as much in local taxes as they consume in public services, such as schools.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 24, 2023
THREAD: The cost of building public transit is out of control. We can do something about that:

Stop relying on outside consultants to do the work of government agencies. slate.com/business/2023/…
In the name of cutting costs, we’ve hollowed out government agencies, asking full-time employees to handle impossible tasks.

The result? Chaos. And lots of wasted taxpayer dollars. (After all, government contractors arguably cost even more money).
.@alon_levy produced a report for us outlining some solutions:

(1) The federal government should require that state/local transportation agencies demonstrate they already have the capacity to oversee big infrastructure projects before releasing funds. niskanencenter.org/report-so-you-…
Read 9 tweets

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