🧵 Translated this interview by prominent Polish defence analyst @konrad_muzyka for RP, which focuses on the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war.
It's long, but very insightful. Many numbers, details and assessments.
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- There's the upcoming summit – a meeting between President Trump and President Putin. What do you expect regarding Ukraine?
- I don't have particularly optimistic expectations. It seems that Russia still maintains maximalist goals for Ukraine, assuming its complete subjugation. At this stage of the war, Moscow is in a more favorable position, so Putin will negotiate from a position of strength. Leaks regarding Ukraine's alleged ceding of the remaining part of the Donetsk Oblast have already been denied by Kyiv. Therefore, there is a risk that after the summit, Ukraine will be on a collision course with the United States. However, the negotiation process itself – if it begins at all and includes Ukrainian participation – will likely take months.
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- You recently returned from another visit to Ukraine. What's the current situation on the front?
- The Russians continue to maintain the strategic initiative along the entire front. Apart from very local counterattacks, the Ukrainians are in retreat. Russian forces are pressing hard on several axes, particularly in the areas of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Velyka Novosilka, and most recently in Zaporizhzhia, i.e., in the deep south.
It is concerning that Russian territorial gains, especially in July, have been quite significant and larger than in previous months. The Russians have advanced 10-12 km on several axes. This is something we haven't seen before. If there were any territorial gains before, they were concentrated in a single area. Now we have several areas where the front is starting to leak.
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🇺🇦🇷🇺 | Polish defence analyst Konrad Muzyka shared his impressions regarding the current state of war following his trip to Ukraine. I've translated the thread into English.
Let's start with Zaluzhny's article in The Economist. The word stalmate is used in a quite awkward manner (more on that below). But it emphasizes that the counteroffensive has ended. Ukraine currently does not have the potential to conduct offensive operations.
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Personally, I think that the culmination of the counteroffensive took place in September, when the Ukrainians "broke through" the Russian line of fortifications west of Verbove.
The wreckage of one of Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jets reportedly destroyed as a result of Russian strikes (presumably with ZALA Lancet loitering munition) in September 2023. Kulbakino Air Base, Mykolaiv Oblast.
The second destroyed Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet at the Kulbakino Air Base in Mykolaiv Oblast in Ukraine as a result of Russian strikes earlier this fall.
And the third Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet at the Kulbakino Air Base in Mykolaiv Oblast of Ukraine destroyed as a result of Russian strikes earlier this fall.
I believe that this is the one seen in the video below.
This is a very insightful thread about Russian defensive positions in the Robotyne-Novoprokopivka area, Orikhiv sector, Zaporizhzhia front. I translated it to English 👇
"This, dear friends, is one of the most complex strongholds located in the Robotyne-Novoprokopivka area. A complex system of trenches-tunnels, dugouts, firing positions, to which the Russian invaders cling with all their might."
"What we see first. A system of trenches and firing positions. According to the results of observation and tracking of the movements of equipment and personnel of the occupiers, we confirm the routes of movement and approaches to the positions."
There's an insane footage of Ukrainian soldiers defending their positions in the battle for the last road to Bakhmut.
We follow a 🇺🇦 soldier as he jumps into his dugout. He is made aware that his comrade has been killed. Shortly after, the Russians launch their assault.
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The Ukrainians engage the attackers and intense firefight ensues. Russian soldier can be seen throwing a grenade at the defenders.
The Russians attacking from the left side are killed, but another group approach the trenches from the right side.
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The Ukrainian soldier with callsign "Tihiy" tells his comrades to come to support him as the Russians advance on the right flank. The firefight continues.
On March 15, Ukrainian troops attempted a reconnaissance-in-force on Russian positions south of Novodanylivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast of Ukraine.
After reaching the first line of trenches, Ukrainians were targeted by fire from better prepared Russian positions further south. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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The Ukrainians lost at least four pieces of equipment (including a YPR-765 armoured personnel carrier) and several men. They were forced to withdraw.
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Geolocation: 47.495412, 35.809549.
South of Novodanylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast of Ukraine.