Bill Ackman was once asked what's the most influential thing Buffett has ever said.
He referred to the following Buffett quote.
2/ "If you want to be successful, look around the room and think about the classmate you most admire and what qualities they have and just decide to adopt those qualities. If you do that, your chances of being successful go up enormously."
3/ Patrick recently asked Michael Seibel how we can get better at execution.
Seibel emphasized the importance of peers/community.
4/ If I look back in my own life, I am quite amazed how my peers had always been instrumental in driving me forward.
Even though I grew up in a small city in Bangladesh, I somehow found myself in a peer group many of whom ended up in Ivy league/Oxbridge schools.
5/ None of the member from that peer group came from money.
I believe even though individually we all had pretty low odds of getting into these schools from our background, the odds improved greatly once our peer group was formed.
6/ In the age of internet/social media, the geographical boundary to find a peer group that challenges and drives us has completely evaporated.
I personally felt this once I decided to learn in public.
7/ As I continued to share my notes with my followers what I have been reading/listening, a flywheel has emerged.
The odds of finding/reading great content has increased materially as many people share with me whenever they read something interesting.
8/ Of course, social media has also made it easier more than ever to find the worst kind of community as well.
Was there ever an easier moment in the history of human civilization for the worst kind of people (think terrorists/pedophiles) to find a global "community"?
9/ If you feel you were not born in privilege, this is perhaps one way to play your hand better:
Find a set of peers in real life/internet to keep you motivated.
End/ The worst thing of being not born in privilege is the tunnel vision we potentially inflict upon ourselves.
If we find ourselves among peers who can push us forward, who cheer our highs, and support during our lows, I believe it can outweigh the damage of lack of privilege.
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"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels."
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.
"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"
While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.
SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.
CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.
$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON)
Looking closer between MMC and AON.
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.
In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):
After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle.
More commentary on China:
"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)
"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."