Between the 18-19 November 2023 Russia launched around 50 Iranian-designed Shahed one way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicles, primarily towards Kyiv. These were launched in waves on two axes β from the Kursk to the east, and from Krasnodar to the south-east. (1/4)
One of Russiaβs objectives was likely to degrade Ukraineβs air defences, to shape the battlespace ahead of any concerted winter campaign of strikes against Ukraineβs energy infrastructure. (2/4)
(1/5) As of late October 2023, large elements of the Wagner Group private military company had likely been assimilated into the command structure of Russiaβs National Guard (Rosgvardiya) and resumed active recruitment.
(2/5) This Wagner arm under Rosgvardiya is likely led by Pavel Prigozhin, son of the late Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin.
(1/5) Over the past three weeks, Russia has likely lost around 200 armoured vehicles during its assaults on the Donbas town of Avdiivka.
(2/5) This is likely due to a combination of relative effectiveness of Ukraineβs modern hand-held anti-armour weapons, mines, uncrewed aerial vehicle-dropped munitions, and precision artillery systems.
(1/5) Recent Russian assaults in Avdiivka have contributed to a 90% increase in Russian casualties recorded by the Ukrainian MoD.
(2/5) Since February 2022, Russia has significantly increased its force footprint on the ground in Ukraine by intensifying recruitment using financial incentives and the partial mobilisation conducted in Autumn 2022.