Alina Chan Profile picture
Sep 25, 2020 17 tweets 9 min read Read on X
There's some confusion about how new the D614G mutation is. I'm going to use data on @GISAID visualized by @CovidCg to answer this question. The first time it appeared in China was Jan 23, 2020. So this mutation occurred pretty early on in the outbreak before travel restrictions.
When+where did D614G first get detected in Europe? It's not possible to tell using GISAID alone because many countries did not sequence virus isolates and deposit data till later in the pandemic. However, you can see that there are EU countries with D614G even in Jan.
It was only after January that travel restrictions started being sporadically imposed on China by other countries but it was too late because SARS2 (including D614G variants), as we now know, was already widespread. thinkglobalhealth.org/article/travel…
Had to remove the UK from the "Compare Locations" analysis in Europe because of how many sequences they've uploaded - just a tsunami that washes out the sequences from other countries. The G614 variants, in blue, are among the earliest sequences found in the UK, including in Jan.
Other European countries saw similar trends as well - D614G was among their earliest sequenced virus isolates and quickly became the more prevalent mutation at that point in the Spike. E.g., Germany shown here, G614 in blue, D614 in grey
Netherlands, G614 variants shown in blue, D614 in grey. Both present in the country since the beginning of the detected outbreak there.
What about countries that were able to curb the spread of COVID? Was it that they were dealt an easier hand of less transmissible SARS2? This is Singapore, D614G mutation was also detected in February, similar time as several European countries. Strangely, D614G did not dominate.
Visit covidcg.org to play around with the data yourself :) This is Taiwan, another country with exceedingly few COVID cases. They detected D614G as early as March but half a year later their country still hasn't exploded with COVID.
South Korea also saw the D614G mutation in March. In both the "Compare SNVs" (left) and "Compare Lineages" (right) mode, you can see how there were distinct waves of the virus in their country.
Japan also saw D614G early - at the end of January. It's by no means a new mutant of SARS2 for many countries. covidcg.org
Even across Africa, D614G has been around since the beginning. Worth pointing out again that it is not just 1 variant or strain of SARS2 that carries D614G. Many distinct SARS2 variants carry the same G614 mutation on top of several other mutations.
One particularly interesting country is Australia. At first glance it looks like D614G (blue) is dominating again. But turns out the new wave is marked more specifically by an S477N (pink) spike mutation. D614G+S477N were detected in Australia in late Jan. covidcg.org
New Zealand, another country that's done a phenomenal job limiting the spread of COVID. D614G has also been there since the beginning. The country was able to bring the new daily cases of COVID down to mostly single digits by late April.
How about states in the US? State name at top left corner of each picture. G614 in blue; D614 in grey.
US states started seeing D614G by early March. This was after China travel restrictions had been implemented early Feb, but EU travel (conferences!) was still ongoing. The Mar announcement of restrictions caused Americans to stampede back from EU (where D614G was rampant) to US.
“We closed the front door with the China travel ban,” New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) said last month as officials began to grasp the magnitude of the failure. In waiting to cut off travel from Europe, he said, “we left the back door wide open.” washingtonpost.com/world/national…
For more ways to use our free and awesome resource @covidcg covidcg.org please check out our new preprint: biorxiv.org/content/10.110… enabled by @gisaid data contributed by hundreds of different labs around the world.

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More from @Ayjchan

May 14
New York🇺🇸-based MV Hondius cruise passenger who disembarked on Apr 24 went to a Hanoi🇻🇳 conference last week for extreme travelers (150 guests who've visited 100+ countries), potentially passing through Hong Kong🇨🇳 Bangkok🇹🇭. Her current location is unknown @JSweetLI reports...
@JSweetLI ... previous hantavirus outbreaks didn't have this kind of opportunity to race around the world.

"MV Hondius is a pricey, adventurous expedition—costing passengers between $8,500 to $17,000—and so it attracted world travelers crossing bucket list sights"
jacquelinesweet.substack.com/p/a-second-wom…
@JSweetLI Hantavirus-exposed cruise passengers going on world tour are not breaking any laws. @WHO had said they were low-risk contacts, only changing to high-risk around May 9 or 10.
Read 18 tweets
May 13
Some question the motivations of the whistleblower this morning.

His testimony can be checked by looking at names of experts recommended by Fauci to IC, the 2022 CIA report & 2023 report before it was changed overnight, and a redacted form of the 2,000-page classified report.
The 2022 and 2023 CIA reports on Covid origins should not be especially difficult to obtain since John Ratcliffe is the current CIA director.
If Fauci recommended the Proximal Origin authors to multiple intel agencies, this will not be difficult for Senators to verify as well.
Read 11 tweets
May 12
From the 2018 Andes strain hantavirus outbreak:

One patient did not have physical contact and simply said "hello" to the infected person as they crossed paths at a birthday party.

2 patients sat at different tables separated by 1-2m from the infected person. Image
This info was in the supplementary appendix of the @NEJM study describing the cases.
nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1…
@NEJM Not saying the Andes hantavirus is as transmissible as covid or measles.

But a virus doesn't have to be that transmissible to cause a pandemic. HIV caused a pandemic without being spread through the air.
Read 11 tweets
May 11
The 16 US passengers from the hantavirus cruise can choose to isolate at home for the next 8 weeks?

Do they all live alone in single family houses? Are they allowed to have people over to care for them & clean their homes?
Although not specific to the Andes strain, the scientific literature shows hantaviruses often cause severe illness in children and can be fatal.

Why are we taking this risk of transmission to family members in the US?

1 child fatality is too many.
US passengers who previously disembarked the ship are being monitored in Arizona, California, Georgia, Texas and Virginia.

Will an updated list of affected states be published once the new group of US passengers leave the quarantine facility to self-isolate at home?
Read 12 tweets
Apr 28
Senior advisor to Anthony Fauci finally charged for concealing federal records following a criminal referral from former House COVID Subcommittee Chairman Brad Wenstrup.

“I can either send stuff to Tony on his private Gmail [sic], or hand it to him at work or at his house,” Morens wrote in one April 21, 2021, email. “He is too smart to let colleagues send him stuff that could cause trouble.”
"Information in the indictment indicates the co-conspirators are Dr. Peter Daszak, the president of Manhattan-based non-profit EcoHealth Alliance, and Dr. Gerald Keusch, an associate director of Boston University’s National Emerging Infectious Disease Laboratory..."
In 2023 emails shared by @gdemaneuf, Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance and Gerald Keusch from Boston's high containment pathogen lab conspired to recruit prominent friends to push back on calls for increased oversight of research that can kill millions of people.

David Morens (the above charged senior advisor to Fauci) and Peter Hotez are cc'ed on these emails.Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 13
Listened to 'Privatizing the Apocalypse', a conversation on the dangers of virus hunting & pandemic resurrection between @Rob_Reid & Sam Harris @MakingSenseHQ

The number of people capable of causing pandemics is growing. Governments are not tracking & regulating this research.
One point I appreciated in their discussion was that a virus doesn't need to be 100% lethal to upend society.

It just has to be lethal enough that essential workers decide they won't go out and expose themselves and their loved ones to death.
Read 6 tweets

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