Thread by @speechboy71

So I've been giving @bartongellman's long piece on how Trump could steal the election a close read and there's a major problem with his argument that needs to be pointed out. THREAD theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

Gellman says, "Many states forbid the processing of early-arriving mail ballots before Election Day; some allow late-arriving ballots to be counted."

This is eliding important Information: FL, NC (and I believe AZ) process early arriving votes beforehand.

They will likely dump their mail in votes when the polls close, so in both states there's a good chance we'll know the winner on Election Night. If, for example, Biden is winning in Florida and/or NC we will know that night.

If that happens, it makes Trump's efforts to steal the election largely impossible. Biden will be the clear winner and Trump's bluster won't matter if we have verifiable evidence that Biden has won.

But Gellman argues that in Florida, Trump's advantage with in-person voting will make it possible for HIM to declare victory that night. But that's wrong. The first returns from FL will be early voting ballots, WHICH WILL LIKELY FAVOR BIDEN.

If Trump wins Florida he will have to overcome Biden's initial advantage. In fact, as @ElectProject (Michael McDonald) said to me - the Biden team could look at the early results in FL and declare victory right away.

If the Trump team complains, the Biden team could respond by saying "you're right let's count every vote before anyone declares victory."

But let's say Trump wins Florida and NC. There are three battleground states where Gellman's doomsday scenario could play out - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

But in Michigan, Republican state legislators just sponsored a bill that would make it easier to count votes ahead of time in the state. Considering Biden's lead there, it seems unlikely that Trump would be ahead on Election night freep.com/story/news/pol…

So that leaves Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. There could be delays in counting votes in both states. But will the delay be long enough for the GOP to implement a strategy to appoint their own electors. Possibly, but that does seem a bit far-fetched.

Still even if it does happen, GOP state legislators would have to circumvent the law in both states, a Democratic governor, the will of the voters, and run the gamut of legal challenges .. and that's just to get to the House, which could accept electors certified by the governor

Many people have focused on the fact that Gellman got the chairman of the PA Republican Party to say that appointing pro-Trump electors is a possibility But the PA Senate GOP leader went on the record and did not endorse the idea.

In other words, one has to believe that a crazy confluence of events will occur - pre-election polling to be wrong, Trump leading on Election night etc - for the GOP to even get to a point where Trump could steal the election.

Then you have to have another unlikely confluence of events - delayed counting, state legislators rejecting the will of the voters, winning numerous legal fight - and all that does is throw the decision into the House, which is controlled by Democrats

To say this is far-fetched is putting it mildly.