Reflex Research Profile picture
Sep 25, 2020 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I may be very wrong, but this looks like a proof of concept of Tesla's proposed new Lithium Clay + Salt + Water method.
1) The method appears to have been discovered by accident by SGS working on the Clayton Valley Lithium Project in Nevada, without them noticing the consequences
2) SGS discovered that for some surface lithium clay samples you could leach lithium in water, but then that this didn't work for other subsurface samples.
cypressdevelopmentcorp.com/site/assets/fi…
3) They decided the reason for this discrepancy must be because surface samples must have had "some component of surface enrichment in the form of water-soluble salts".
4)Then they finished and said ok, water doesn't work, we have to use expensive acids instead.
5) Instead they should have investigated what the water-soluble salt enrichment was in the surface samples & added it themselves, optimising for highest Li extraction % for a water based leaching method.
6) Note I'm no expert on lithium or chemical engineering, so this may all be well off track.
7) And of course this is all still vastly simplified.
8) The big engineering challenge is then likely in how to enrich all the lithium clay samples with the right salt concentration in a dry process, to make all samples equal, before then using a water leaching process.
9) Possibly this will require a high temperature (700C +) process step to create Lithium Chloride pre water leaching.
10) Plus many more complicated engineering steps. Remember lithium materials are high value add engineered products with a huge number of process steps & many potential bottlenecks on production volume or quality.
11) A final note: Tesla's lithium clay plans looked highest risk & potentially least advanced of all projects announced at Battery Day.
They're also potentially the least vital as there are many strong Lithium suppliers & potential lithium startups working to ramp supply

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More from @ReflexResearch

Oct 14, 2021
1) It is sad how many people are against investment in space launch technology.
The narrative “Space is just a playground for billionaires” is not helped by those who focussed on sending themselves to orbit as an end goal, but why is space tech important?
2) More broadly, space launch tech is innovating towards a 100x reduction in launch costs and increasing the ease of access to space.

Why does this matter?
3)
A) Disaster preparedness; With cheaper & quicker access to space we have better odds of addressing issues such as approaching asteroids & satellite wipeouts from solar storms. This is the same as investing in pandemic preparedness ahead of an unknown future event.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 13, 2021
Analysts have an irrational urge to be “conservative” when forecasting the future, as if you are only wrong if your forecasts are too high.
The future is uncertain, so acknowledge the range of possibilities.
But try to be accurate, don’t try to be conservative.
Technology production volume vs cost curves & adoption speed once economic parity is reached are all well understood.
Forecasting absurdly slow rates of clean tech price declines & deployment growth deters investment in them & prevents policymakers supporting them as the solution
Thread on what drives technology production costs to decline with cumulative production volume:
Read 4 tweets
Mar 28, 2021
Some thoughts on Self Driving Cars:

This is unsolved tech & will be a radically new product with very different cost structures vs current options; the future is highly uncertain.
This justifies a huge disparity in opinions but many may have too high certainty in their views.
Key questions:

1) Will self driving cars require 2x or 20x average human safety to achieve regulatory approval in a given jurisdiction?
2) Will it take 1 year or 20 years to get to this level of safety?
3) Is the Tesla-like deep learning heavy, hardware lite, incremental progress on driver assistance, general solution approach best? Or is the Waymo-like deep learning lite, hardware heavy, moonshot leap, geofenced approach better?
Read 7 tweets
Oct 25, 2020
1) Tesla's Autopilot driver assist product is now largely feature complete, but how much further does it have to progress to achieve reliability 3-5x greater than the average human & allow removal of human supervision?
...
2) This is the March of 9s.
Tesla’s self driving strategy from the start was chosen & optimised for this moment now; putting a system & infrastructure in place without data or hardware bottlenecks to allow largely automated progress for a feature complete AP on the March of 9s.
3) But how far do they have left to March?
Is Tesla 99.9% there, does it have 9,000x further to go or its it 33% there? It’s all a matter of perspective.
And most importantly does this all mean is Tesla 1 year away or 10 years away from Robotaxi level reliability?
Read 36 tweets
Oct 22, 2020
According to usually reliable Tesla hacker @greentheonly Tesla looks set to move to a new next generation radar from Arbe.

Tesla at one point reportedly had its own in-house radar under-development but its not clear if this project is still ongoing.
Image
Read 4 tweets

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