Alina Chan Profile picture
Sep 25, 2020 17 tweets 5 min read Read on X
I've been sitting on a major topic that I think the non-scientist public needs a primer on, with particular significance to COVID-19 research.

That topic: Research Misconduct
ori.hhs.gov/definition-mis…

And what to do about papers that are found to have engaged in misconduct.
One of the most notable instances of misconduct was the Surgisphere HCQ papers. @TheLancet eventually decided to retract the paper & commentary because they would be too misleading in their original form. They adopted a "retract and replace" approach... retractionwatch.com/2020/07/10/a-m…
... because the editorial had been written by innocent parties who were not aware of the data issues, @TheLancet published a new editorial to explain what had transpired - in order to rightfully preserve the reputations of scientists who had been misled. retractionwatch.com/2018/03/29/a-n…
This is a good read. Particularly, D. Goldstein's quote: “Given the amount of data that was in the [Surgisphere] database, it’s just hard to believe someone would [fabricate] something like this.” - Many of us underestimate the scope of misconduct. sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/w…
According to the @HHS_ORI, research misconduct comes in 3 forms (1) fabrication=made-up s**t, (2) falsification=manipulating, changing, omitting data or results > inaccurate representation in the research record, (3) plagiarism=taking someone's ideas/results without attribution.
The first two are especially pernicious because they can mislead the entire scientific community, wasting millions of taxpayer $$$ and (prime) years of research by brilliant and/or hardworking scientists. I didn't get an education in this until I moved to Boston.
But the last one can also be dangerous, especially in the form of deliberate self-plagiarism. For example, publishing the same data again and again as new and separate data. This misleads the entire field into thinking that there are many many instances of the same phenomenon.
Example: what if there is one phase 3 vaccine subject who suffered adverse effects, but leaders of the vaccine project kept on publishing details on that patient's adverse events across different publications, different journals, without informing the reader that this was 1 case.
Due to data falsification+self-plagiarism, readers of these papers would have the impression that several phase 3 subjects are suffering adverse effects from the vaccine.

In such a scenario, I don't see how these papers could be corrected instead of straight-up retracted.
What do journals do when they obtain evidence of misconduct?

Each journal has its own protocol. However, some journals can take years to investigate. A typical research misconduct inquiry+investigation can take 2 years. By that time, dozens of scientists would've been misled.
What is the incentive for a journal or university/institute to resolve allegations of research misconduct in a timely manner?

Maybe only reputational damage. And that will not even stop the hoards of people trying to get into top journals and schools.
This year, I've been shocked, repeatedly, that established scientists would try to salvage data from publications that have signs of misconduct, mainly falsification. There's a desperation to believe in data+conclusions of some papers, even after misconduct has been revealed.
It's like someone who realizes that their food is horribly rotten but tries to pick out the parts that are at least visibly not moldy or covered in maggots.

This is not the behavior of top journals, top institutes, top scientists.
This may be cheeky, but @NIH it's not the trainees who should be compelled to attend Responsible Conduct of Research meetings. It's the PIs. It's the journal editors. If they don't take the lead on research integrity, you can't expect trainees to!
In one of the RCR courses I took, the scenario: what should you do if you're a grad student who noticed that a postdoc falsified data for your PI who happily presented it at a conference.

What the hell is a grad student or even another postdoc supposed to do in this scenario?
I suspect the course would be 10x more useful if you taught trainees how to document research misconduct via emails, data, lab meeting slides. And also walked them through the >2-years of horror of trying to report misconduct, where they become known primarily as a whistleblower.
Whether you’re a journal, an institute, or a national program, if you demonstrate an inability/reluctance to identify research misconduct, and a propensity for quietly covering it up, you’re signalling to bad actors that they can continue to count on this protection in future.

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More from @Ayjchan

Apr 10
Regarding the possibility that Covid may have spread at the Oct 2019 Wuhan military games, my main question is why noone across multiple countries had the presence of mind to collect & store samples from patients till tests were available.

There should be changes going forward.
According to Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness: "Service members were not tested... as testing was not available at this early stage of the pandemic."
freebeacon.com/wp-content/upl…
"athletes noticed that something was amiss in the city of Wuhan.. described it as a “ghost town.”"

"athletes from several countries.. claimed publicly they had contracted what they believed to be covid.. based on their symptoms and how their illnesses spread to their loved ones"
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Read 13 tweets
Mar 13
I encourage experts who have insisted on a natural origin of Covid-19 to gracefully change their public stance instead of doubling down on the threadbare evidence for the wet market hypothesis.

You could acknowledge that you initially trusted your colleagues in China/US to tell the truth. But time and time again over the past 5 years, it has been shown that they withheld critical evidence from you and the public:
1⃣The 2018 Defuse proposal
2⃣Low biosafety standards for experiments where live viruses are produced and used in human cell infection studies
3⃣Risky pathogen experiments and surprising gain of function
4⃣Missing pathogen sample database, viruses discovered after 2015 largely not shared with US collaborators
5⃣Closest virus relative that we know of was collected from a mine where people died from suspected SARS-like virus infection

The studies published last month where Wuhan scientists experimented with potentially dangerous pathogens at low biosafety opened your eyes to the level of reckless ambition in their research.

Given these betrayals, it is fully within reason to retract your trust and re-evaluate all the available evidence. Those of you who have access to intelligence could say that the non-public evidence has cast a new light on the public evidence and strengthens the case for a lab origin of Covid-19.

This is better than continuing to argue that you somehow know all the viruses in the Wuhan lab's collection and somehow know they didn't follow through on their 2018 plans to put furin cleavage sites into SARS-like viruses and study these at low biosafety exactly like they said they would.
For those experts who haven't even looked at the Defuse proposal and its drafts, the Wuhan-US scientists clearly said they were interested in furin cleavage sites at the spike S1/S2 junction, and would insert these into novel SARS-like viruses in the lab (not closely related to the 2003 SARS virus as that would be dangerous). They would test the ability of these SARS-like viruses with inserted cleavage sites to infect human cells and cause pathogenesis in vivo.

The Wuhan lab was regularly synthesizing novel coronavirus genomes without leaving any sign of lab manipulation. They used a protocol with trypsin-supplemented media to retain cleavage sites in the viruses. They did much of the work, including infection experiments in human cells, at BSL-2. Their US collaborator Ralph Baric has repeatedly criticized them for doing the work at low biosafety.

h/t @emilyakopp for FOIA'ing the Defuse proposal drafts.Image
Image
Some virologists may argue that the furin cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 doesn't look canonical. You should read the citation in the Defuse draft for the computational model used to predict furin cleavage sites. The paper says it doesn't rely on the canonical motif and instead looks at a 20-residue sequence to make its predictions. The PRRAR motif exists in a feline coronavirus, MERS has a PRXXR S1/S2 furin cleavage site, and the RRXR motif is a functional furin cleavage site in numerous other proteins.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 12
According to Zeit Online, German Chancellery consulted with US Director of National Intelligence in 2023, who said there was nothing to the lab leak hypothesis.

They doubted "Eierköpfe" (egghead) scientists in intelligence knew better than leading virologists around the world.
In the US, something similar was happening where scientists in intelligence agencies also assessed a likely lab origin of Covid but were sidelined.

"The dominant view within the intelligence community was clear when... the director of national intelligence, and a couple of her senior analysts, briefed Biden... concluded with “low confidence” that Covid-19 had emerged when the virus leapt from an animal to a human."
wsj.com/politics/natio…
In both cases, government leaders favored the opinions of leading virologists over the scientists working in intelligence. Even though some of the leading virologists were public advocates and funders of "gain-of-function" research of concern with pathogens.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
German intelligence now assesses a 80-95% likelihood of a lab origin of Covid-19. Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
I am not 100% convinced Covid came from a lab. I still think there is a small chance the virus emerged in Wuhan without the help of research activities. However, this would mean:

1⃣ The Wuhan-US scientists' entire framework about the spillover risks of SARS-like viruses, building on research and data collected over more than a decade, was incorrect.

2⃣ A highly transmissible, super stealthy virus well adapted for causing uncontrollable outbreaks in multiple animal species left zero trace of its origin in the wildlife or fur farms of China/SE Asia after emerging in only Wuhan out of 1000s of other populous cities.

3⃣ Out of all possible viruses to cause a pandemic and all times for a pandemic to occur, it was an unprecedented SARS-like virus with a novel furin cleavage site, matching the description of a 2018 US-Wuhan research proposal, emerging in Wuhan where scientists worked with such viruses at low biosafety, less than 2 years after said proposal was drafted.

It's not impossible that leading experts were completely mistaken about the exceedingly low odds of such viruses emerging in Wuhan.

It's not impossible that, in 2019, nature churned out a virus matching the scientists' 2018 research plans and that virus emerged in only Wuhan of all places.

But you'd have to be very motivated to believe Covid-19 emerged naturally.
We are unlikely to reach 100% certainty unless a whistleblower appears or the Chinese authorities one day assess that it is in their interest to share the truth.

I am still hopeful that this will happen one day. I believe in human courage.
Before that day, there are several routes of investigation that remain to be explored by the US gov.

Conducting a rigorous, credible investigation of Covid origins can unearth more key evidence while also informing the implementation of new measures to prevent lab pandemics.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
Top journals have the power to set global biosafety standards.

It's a problem that they do not see this as their moral responsibility. By publishing & celebrating risky research done at questionable biosafety, they incentivize the 'work fast break things' model of research.
I've given up on journals taking the initiative to be responsible members of the scientific community.

It is up to the U.S. government to tell them to behave responsibly or do business elsewhere.
I would love to be corrected if any top journal can show us that fostering a culture of accountability, scientific integrity, and 'do no harm' is one of their measurable goals as an organization & a strict criteria for decision-making regarding what research/groups to publish.
Read 6 tweets

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