Thread by @drraghibali

I'm still seeing two widespread misunderstandings of this graph and the data.

The first is that cases are now as high as they were during the first wave – leading to unnecessary fear – and the second is that hospitalisations and deaths (and test positivity) are much lower now than when we had a similar number of cases – leading to unjustified complacency.

These case count (and test positivity) comparisons are completely misleading, because far more tests are being carried out now than in the first wave when they were only being done on those in hospital, not in the community.

Therefore, the number of recorded cases then were a huge under-estimation – the actual number of cases at that time is now known based on antibody testing. About 7 per cent or 4 million people have had the infection in England, and daily case counts can be inferred based on this,

as well as working backwards from the resulting hospitalisations and deaths. We are now at roughly 6500 cases a day on the basis of positive tests (the true number is about 9600 based on the ONS survey) This is about four times higher than the trough in July

but less than ten per cent of the peak in March (when there were about a million cases a week). So while there is certainly no need to panic based on case count, those who are only looking at hospitalisations and deaths are also in danger of being falsely reassured.

The infection fatality rate was not 20% during peak of first wave, as some people think based on this graph - it was about 1% based on actual number of infections detected by antibody tests. It is about half that now due to better treatments and younger average age of infections

Finally, it took less than three weeks to go from 6,000 cases a day on March 5th (50 recorded cases) to 300,000 cases a day on March 23rd. (2000 recorded cases). There was only one death on March 3rd, but a month later it was a thousand a day (with 3000 admissions).

This trajectory will not happen this time as cases are rising much more slowly but the situation can change quickly. By the time hospital admissions and deaths are going up rapidly, it is too late.
References are in my article: conservativehome.com/platform/2020/…