Let's talk about emerging C-19 narrative of "shield sensitive groups". Thread will be USA-centric; I live in US of A, so.
This is C-19 strategy emphasizing nursing homes/elderly, & a euphemism for everyone else to "[keep calm and] carry on".
It won't work. Especially in USA.
Why won't it work?
Where I live, Calif, 26% of C-19 mortality has been in people younger than 65, and 7% has been in people 18–49.
C-19 mortality in CA has been disproportionately felt by the Latinx population and elsewhere in the USA, Blacks have been in a similar position.
continued
The C-19 pandemic is overlaid on the United States' dilapidated public health infrastructure and its major health inequalities, particularly by race.
We can't just take the Swedish experience (which, on Twitter, is more fantasy than reality anyways), and copy+paste.
cont'd
Let's call it like it is:
The "shield" approach, applied to USA, is signing death warrant for thousands of people, not just over-65s (as if that would be okay, anyhow?), and disproportionately people of color.
It's not fighting the pandemic; just waving the white flag.
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I remember a few years back there was a measles case at UCI Medical Center. They pulled out all the stops. Negative-pressure room, PPE, yada-yada. Lots of sturm und drang about how contagious it is. 1/7
I thought this was theatrical, given majority of over-60s (at the time) had natural immunity to measles; most other folks have vaccine-induced immunity. Was considered standard operating procedure for measles case. Perhaps rightly, given immunocompromised ppl at hospitals. 2/7
We need to speak more candidly about the covid vaccine effectiveness.
This is the dashboard from UC, Irvine. To work here or be a student, requires being vaxxed AND boosted. Ostensibly, all of these — 408 active cases, of which 64 incident yesterday — are vaxxed and boosted.
Yes, there are a small number of granted exemptions, and, yes, some people may be non-compliant (especially as regards boosters, though that's speculation on my part).
But there *has* been enforecement, including at least one non-vaxxed tenured faculty member being fired.
So these cases are occurring in what's for all intents and purposes a 100% vaxxed/boosted group; as close to it as can be attained in the *real* *world*.
Yet all these infections. We need to be more honest about this.
The big pandemic of the 19th century was the cholera outbreaks in large European cities. Hamburg and London, especially.
mini-THREAD.
These cholera epidemics helped John Snow make case for modern germ theory of disease. Also spawned massive & costly public health response: clean drinking water.
Ppl were provided w/ clean(er) drinking water, whether they wanted it or not; society (writ large) footed the bill.
cont'd:
Hard not to see parallels w/covid, the big pandemic of 21st century, to date.
W/ airborne pathogen, response will be to provide clean(er) indoor air, whether wanted or not, +whether ppl mask or not. End run around mask compliance: massive investment, indoor air quality.
June 2020. Pandemic was still new and chaotic. Here in California, our first big wave was brewing (would peak in July). We didn't have the devastaion in March/April that NY etc. had had.
We were hoping for seasonality, but no... summer wave.
cont'd
So, in June 2020, we didn't know that much. There were diverging opinions about whether the fall would bring more and when the wave(s) would peak.
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June 2021. California has low community transmission; very low. Statewide color-coded tier system is scrapped.
cont'd
This past June, we ditched masks, "opened up the economy". Etc., etc.
Well, good vibes didn't last long. Here we are.
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June 2022. I think by then we'll have sense of where we stand.Boosters, winter waves, variants, natural immunity, we will have better persepective.
Thread on why mRNA vaccines may be giving better immunity vs. SARS-CoV-2 than surviving natural infection.
disclaimer: we still don't understand the long-term correctness of the claim that vaccines are better protection than natural infection.
TL;DR: it's different kind of vax
In this thread I will offer some speculation as to why it's scientifically plausible that the vaccines offer better protection than surviving natural infection.
This is what it is, speculation.
As I said in the parent tweet, it remains to be seen how true this phenomenon is.
cont'd
But if it is true, I don't think it defies logic. And here I will explain why.
Living in California, I have been increasingly optimisitc of late. Pic related.
But...
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But, New York and New Jersey, OTOH, are giving me the heeby jeebies...
... my thinking *before* this pandemic was that the next pandemic would see rapid spread, leading to regions being in phase with one another. Ex., there has not been a ground-stop of aviation.
continued...
And it's not just the northeast. Here's Michigan:
Clearly, the US of A remains a country with epidemics, plural, playing out at least with different timing in different regions.