I wrote a blog for @UKandEU on the internal market bill, and the implications for the UK's future relationship with the EU.
Here it is recast as a twitter thread. 1/8
The Govt is signalling that it may legislate contrary to international law. That is unlikely to play well with the EU, or any future international partners. 2/8
The Bill is limited, but the Govt's rhetoric is not. It is insisting on sovereignty (the freedom to make whatever rules it likes) *and* on unfettered trade. 3/8
In other news... we will 'take back control of our borders', lorry parks, Kent Access Permits, curbs on immigration.
All these speak to the recognition that once the UK is no longer part of the EU, there will be borders and border checks. 4/8
So... trade will *not be unfettered*. Once the UK leaves the EU's regulatory orbit, there will be a border between the UK and the EU. 5/8
The question, assuming the UK leaves the single market and customs union, is not *if* there will be a border, but *where* there will be a border. That this needs to be said at this stage in the UK's journey beggars belief. 6/8
In the WA, the UK accepted that there would be checks on trade between GB and NI. Now it appears that it no longer accepts this. So... where is the border going to go? 7/8
And why has there been no semblance of a coherent answer to this question?
Anyway... the blog is here for all those who want a slightly longer read. 8/8
After yesterday's intervention on net-zero, it's time for an assessment of Rishi Sunak.
TL;DR: he's doomed.🧵1/11
The core difficulty he faces, is the same core difficulty faced by all PMs since that fateful day in 2016.
He is having to navigate the gap - the chasm, rather - between the wishes and dreams of the Tory Right and reality/public opinion. 2/
Let's look at how his predecessors sought to navigate that chasm.
Liz Truss fully embraced the wishes and dreams of the Right, earned (and is still earning (ker-ching)) rave reviews from those groups... and lasted 45 days. Reality could not endure her. 3/
We know that the plans of governments are often derailed by 'events'... and we know that, in recent years, COVID and the war in Ukraine have been hugely significant and disruptive.
But I'm becoming increasingly annoyed by the Govt's use of 'events' as an excuse. 🧵1/6
The most recent example is the attempt to blame striking NHS staff for the failure of the Govt to achieve its NHS waiting list targets.
Well... if the Govt doesn't invest in staff, then staff shortages, and strikes, are a predictable response. 2/
Similarly, if the Govt doesn't invest in school buildings, it is likely to encounter problems (like RAAC) which will lead to school closures and disruption to education. 3/
So... in the wake of the Starmer Express interview (personal highlight that our European 'friends' are 'eating our lunch' and 'nicking our dinner money too' (no, me neither)), what are people expecting a Starmer Govt to do on the question of Europe? 1/6
I see a lot of comments to the effect that he is saying what (he thinks) needs to be said in order to win an election.
This tends to be accompanied by hope (for others, fear) that, if he wins, he will change tack, and reveal his true colours. 2/
It is true that nothing he says now will in any meaningful sense 'bind' him if he wins power. He will have a free hand.
People point out the consequences of being outside the EU, eg the extra checks required for people and goods to access the EU market.
And other people respond by saying it’s nothing to do with Brexit (and/or the EU’s fault). 1/6
Obviously all sorts of factors combine to produce effects on the economy.
Covid, the war in Ukraine, and govt ineptitude all play a role.
And so does Brexit. 2/6
Cooperating with other countries is the way to reduce trade frictions.
That’s why trade deals matter - you can negotiate for better access than you otherwise would have, returns agreements, participation in shared projects, etc etc. 3/6
Some thoughts on 'free speech' in the media, prompted by @DAaronovitch's excellent substack debut on the 'Sunak revival'. He starts by saying that he is 'free at last'. 🧵1/
David is not alone. We have seen a huge number of analysts and commentators casting off the shackles, unmuzzling themselves, and *finally* able to tell us what they really think. There's @maitlis, @lewis_goodall, @AndrewMarr9; a parade of Tory MPs on GB News; etc etc. 2/
One reaction is to dismiss this as a marketing gimmick, or a means to promote a new professional venture. But, I don't think there is any doubt that these commentators are doing things differently, and that they (and others, like me) see value in that. 3/