1/C
The infection fatality rate (IFR) states what proportion of people infected with the virus SARS-CoV-2 die of the disease COVID-19.
Many COVID-19 contrarians abuse IFR estimates from the USA's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
So let's discuss those estimates.
The infection fatality rate (IFR) states what proportion of people infected with the virus SARS-CoV-2 die of the disease COVID-19.
Many COVID-19 contrarians abuse IFR estimates from the USA's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
So let's discuss those estimates.
2/C
For context:
Seasonal flu's IFR is <0.1%:
If 100 million people (less than 1/3 of the USA's pop.) get infected at an average IFR of 1%, that means 1 million COVID-19 deaths.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
For context:
Seasonal flu's IFR is <0.1%:
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1299429571058696194
If 100 million people (less than 1/3 of the USA's pop.) get infected at an average IFR of 1%, that means 1 million COVID-19 deaths.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1285020775892709377
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
3/C
Round 1:
The CDC initially gave an IFR of 0.26%.
They gave no evidence for this, and their estimate was below that of published research.
So experts were annoyed:
usatoday.com/story/news/fac…
npr.org/sections/healt…
Round 1:
The CDC initially gave an IFR of 0.26%.
They gave no evidence for this, and their estimate was below that of published research.
So experts were annoyed:
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263608976320507904
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1279612720489234434
usatoday.com/story/news/fac…
npr.org/sections/healt…
4/C
Round 2:
The CDC updates their IFR from 0.26% to 0.65%.
That makes a bit more sense, but is still an under-estimate, as noted by the source the CDC relied on.
The actual value was closer to 1%:
archive.is/w2xC7#selectio…
Round 2:
The CDC updates their IFR from 0.26% to 0.65%.
That makes a bit more sense, but is still an under-estimate, as noted by the source the CDC relied on.
The actual value was closer to 1%:
https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1285020775892709377
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1286771217274482689
archive.is/w2xC7#selectio…
5/C
Round 3:
The CDC now gives IFRs for specific age-ranges.
This implies a higher IFR of ~0.72%:
But the CDC again under-estimates IFR, since they leave out those aged 80 and above:
archive.is/UWGms#selectio…
Round 3:
The CDC now gives IFRs for specific age-ranges.
This implies a higher IFR of ~0.72%:
https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1309741852661174278
But the CDC again under-estimates IFR, since they leave out those aged 80 and above:
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1310242459235090434
archive.is/UWGms#selectio…
6/C
Some take-home lessons so far, on the CDC and IFR:
1) They persistently under-estimate IFR.
2) Their IFR estimate increased, undermining COVID-19 contrarians who cited the CDC.
3) COVID-19 is dangerous, even on the CDC's under-estimated IFR.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Some take-home lessons so far, on the CDC and IFR:
1) They persistently under-estimate IFR.
2) Their IFR estimate increased, undermining COVID-19 contrarians who cited the CDC.
3) COVID-19 is dangerous, even on the CDC's under-estimated IFR.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
7/C
And for those who want IFRs for regions of the USA to compare to the CDC's (under-estimated) implied value of ~0.72%:
USA values circled in red:
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
And for those who want IFRs for regions of the USA to compare to the CDC's (under-estimated) implied value of ~0.72%:
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1297654625043132416
USA values circled in red:
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
8/C
The CDC's age-specific IFR from part 5/C is similar to the age-specific IFR used in March by Neil Ferguson's Imperial College team.
So in citing the CDC, COVID-19 contrarians implicitly affirm Ferguson was right. 🙂
spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/1004…
The CDC's age-specific IFR from part 5/C is similar to the age-specific IFR used in March by Neil Ferguson's Imperial College team.
So in citing the CDC, COVID-19 contrarians implicitly affirm Ferguson was right. 🙂
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1310310480074899456
spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/1004…
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