1/ La estrategia Sueca se puede resumir así: proteger a los vulnerables, dejar que los menos vulnerables socialicen dejando colegios, restaurantes y bares abiertos.

2/ Esto tiene sentido porque desde Marzo sabemos que la tasa de fatalidad (IFR) es entre 2 a 3 ordenes de magnitud inferior para grupos menores a 60 años (los menos vulnerables).

3/ Suecia necesitó 600 UCIs en el pico y ha convergido a una fatalidad general de 600/millón, que es un orden de magnitud inferior a lo que había sido predicho por modelos tempranos (y pobremente calibrados).

4/ Incluso si algunos están dispuestos a admitir que la estrategia Sueca ha funcionado, existen muchos argumentos para explicar porqué no se puede seguir la misma estrategia en otros países.
5/ El argumento general es "la demografía es única". Los suecos por ejemplo tienen menos hogares intergeneracionales que otros países, especialmente países del tercer mundo. Esto es cierto, Suecia tiene <= 1% de hogares intergeneracionales.

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docum… Image
6/ Por hogares intergeneracionales normalmente se entiende jovenes y adultos conviviendo en el mismo hogar, es decir vulnerables (>= 60) y menos vulnerables (<60).
7/ La narrativa es: Suecia se podía dar el lujo de seguir su estrategia porque los menos vulnerables se mezclan menos con vulnerables. Esto es plausible y no se ha cuestionado mucho hasta ahora.
8/ Una estrategia de confinamiento general para la población impide que los menos vulnerables socialicen y contribuyan a la inmunidad comunitaria. Los confinamientos no son perfectos y la transmisión comunitaria sigue su curso como hemos visto en LATAM.

9/ ¿Qué hubiera pasado si otros países hubieran emulado a Suecia? ¿Como se comparan los países en terminos de hogares menos vulnerables? ¿Es justo preguntar: cuantos hogares menos vulnerables hay?
10/ En 2019 Suecia tenía 60% de hogares sin miembros vulnerables (solo miembros < 60, fuente SCB, Suecia). Image
11/ ¿Otros países? India: 74%, Brasil 73%, Argentina, Colombia y USA 66% solo por nombrar algunos. Como los hogares jovenes tienden a ser más grandes, podemos deducir que al menos el 70% de la población vive separada de la población más vulnerable.

un.org/en/development… Image
12/ Hogares intergeneracionales son bajo esta definición "vulnerables" porque tienen al menos un miembro en la clase vulnerable.
13/ La pregunta entonces es ¿Porqué aislar a todos y mantener así latente el riesgo a la clase vulnerable por mucho más tiempo?

Gracias a @federicolois @HaraldofW @gummibear737 y a @Akustronique por valiosas discusiones sobre este tema.

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Hotspots update. Any hints of endemicity?

1/ Brussels. Unexpectedly, less immunity than other hotspots. Would be interesting to look at data with more granularity (neighborhoods, hospitals vs. care-homes). Curve seems to be stabilizing now and smaller than first though so far.
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